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  • Mark Kotsay

    Here's a guy who, clearly, is not a Hall of Famer, nor will he ever be. The crux of this is to determine whether you guys think he ever had Hall of Fame potential.

    Mark Kotsay came to the big leagues at 21 years old in 1997, after being drafted ninth overall in the 1996 amateur draft. He began well, averaging 151 hits a year between 1998 and 2000 and 153 hits a year between 1998 and 2005. In fact, using statistics through his age 29 season, Bill James' Favorite Toy says he was "on pace" for 2,235 hits, 166 home runs ,124 stolen bases and 1,045 runs in his career.

    He has not quite done enough to achieve those numbers, however, as he stands at 1,717 hits, 124 home runs and 773 runs scored. Though he received MVP votes in 2004 (finishing 14th out of 30), he has never been an All-Star and hasn't lived up to the initial hype that surrounded him.

    He has always been a solid defender, however--he has led centerfielders in assists three times and rightfielders twice. He led all outfielders in fielding percentage once and career dWAR is 2.8, which is good (?).

    Statistically, he is related to a bunch of "could have beens," guys who, with a bit more luck and just a few more counting stats, may have Hall of Fame arguments. For example, his most similar batters through age 35 list includes names like Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Jose Cruz, Felipe Alou, Augie Galan and Ken Griffey, Sr. His most similar player through age 24 was Johnny Damon and through age 29 it was Amos Otis. His most similar batters, overall, are Randy Winn, Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Vic Power, Jorge Orta, Jimmy Piersall, Lou Piniella, Gregg Jefferies, Dave Philley and Al Cowens.

    Just for fun, here are his current career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

    2030 G
    7711 PA
    7010 AB
    846 R
    1935 H
    386 2B
    50 3B
    142 HR
    788 RBI
    106 SB
    605 BB
    812 K
    .276 BA

    What do you think about Mark Kotsay? Did he ever have Hall of Fame potential? Even in his advanced age, does he have a shot at putting together some sort of a Hall of Fame career?
    15
    Yes
    0.00%
    0
    No
    93.33%
    14
    Maybe
    0.00%
    0
    Not a Hall of Famer, but he has Hall of Fame potential
    0.00%
    0
    Not a Hall of Famer, but he had Hall of Fame potential at one point
    6.67%
    1
    Last edited by Cowtipper; 03-28-2012, 08:15 AM.

  • #2
    While not a single comp is a sucky player, other than maybe Winn, Orta or Philley, Kotsay is the least good. I'm actually surprised he comes out so well or has such career numbers because it seemd like any optomism about him faded fast.

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    • #3
      Shall we discuss Wille Harris next?
      They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
        Shall we discuss Wille Harris next?
        No, I got a real humdinger coming up though.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
          No, I got a real humdinger coming up though.
          Randy Winn?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
            Randy Winn?
            http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...269-Randy-Winn

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            • #7
              If you're going by that initial hype (some of us do read that first post, cowtipper) I would say Kotsay had the potential to be a really special player. But, as you said, he did not live up to the hype.
              Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
              Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
              Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
              Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
              Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose View Post
                If you're going by that initial hype (some of us do read that first post, cowtipper) I would say Kotsay had the potential to be a really special player. But, as you said, he did not live up to the hype.
                JD Drew and countless others had the hype coming in. Jesus Montero is the current flavor of the week on the hype scale. That does not mean HOF level talent.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                  JD Drew and countless others had the hype coming in. Jesus Montero is the current flavor of the week on the hype scale. That does not mean HOF level talent.
                  I think Drew had Hall of Fame talent, but he kept getting hurt. But that's a discussion for another thread.

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                  • #10
                    I'm floored that Kotsay had 1700 career hits. That's an awfully nice career for someone who's been off the radar for the most part.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
                      For example, his most similar batters through age 35 list includes names like Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Jose Cruz, Felipe Alou, Augie Galan and Ken Griffey, Jr.
                      Is that supposed to be Ken Griffey Sr.?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                        JD Drew and countless others had the hype coming in. Jesus Montero is the current flavor of the week on the hype scale. That does not mean HOF level talent.
                        Of course it does not necessarily mean so. But the potential was certainly there. Kotsay was red hot after his college career. It is not far-fetched at all to say he had the tools to really make it that far. He did not, as most don't. But potential is potential is potential. For Kotsay, it wasn't just a word thrown around, he did look like he could have been a superstar.
                        Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
                        Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
                        Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
                        Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
                        Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by RDB_SoxFan View Post
                          Is that supposed to be Ken Griffey Sr.?
                          Yes, my apologies.

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                          • #14
                            I know he's not great but I think he's worth more than the 68 games and 123 at-bats he has received so far this year. Defensively, he's still solid and he doesn't strike out much.

                            But, this is his Hall of Fame thread, and a Hall of Famer he is not. But through age 29, it definitely looked like he had an outside shot of putting together quite a solid career. He was on pace for 2,235 hits and over 1,000 runs scored at that point.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The great Mark Kotsay is now retired, with 1,914 games, 1,784 hits, 127 home runs and a .276 career batting average to his name. He hit as high as .314 in a season and rarely struck out more than 70 times in a season.

                              An illustrious, underrated career comes to a close.

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