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Here's a guy who, clearly, is not a Hall of Famer, nor will he ever be. The crux of this is to determine whether you guys think he ever had Hall of Fame potential.
Mark Kotsay came to the big leagues at 21 years old in 1997, after being drafted ninth overall in the 1996 amateur draft. He began well, averaging 151 hits a year between 1998 and 2000 and 153 hits a year between 1998 and 2005. In fact, using statistics through his age 29 season, Bill James' Favorite Toy says he was "on pace" for 2,235 hits, 166 home runs ,124 stolen bases and 1,045 runs in his career.
He has not quite done enough to achieve those numbers, however, as he stands at 1,717 hits, 124 home runs and 773 runs scored. Though he received MVP votes in 2004 (finishing 14th out of 30), he has never been an All-Star and hasn't lived up to the initial hype that surrounded him.
He has always been a solid defender, however--he has led centerfielders in assists three times and rightfielders twice. He led all outfielders in fielding percentage once and career dWAR is 2.8, which is good (?).
Statistically, he is related to a bunch of "could have beens," guys who, with a bit more luck and just a few more counting stats, may have Hall of Fame arguments. For example, his most similar batters through age 35 list includes names like Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Jose Cruz, Felipe Alou, Augie Galan and Ken Griffey, Sr. His most similar player through age 24 was Johnny Damon and through age 29 it was Amos Otis. His most similar batters, overall, are Randy Winn, Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Vic Power, Jorge Orta, Jimmy Piersall, Lou Piniella, Gregg Jefferies, Dave Philley and Al Cowens.
Just for fun, here are his current career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:
2030 G
7711 PA
7010 AB
846 R
1935 H
386 2B
50 3B
142 HR
788 RBI
106 SB
605 BB
812 K
.276 BA
What do you think about Mark Kotsay? Did he ever have Hall of Fame potential? Even in his advanced age, does he have a shot at putting together some sort of a Hall of Fame career?
Mark Kotsay came to the big leagues at 21 years old in 1997, after being drafted ninth overall in the 1996 amateur draft. He began well, averaging 151 hits a year between 1998 and 2000 and 153 hits a year between 1998 and 2005. In fact, using statistics through his age 29 season, Bill James' Favorite Toy says he was "on pace" for 2,235 hits, 166 home runs ,124 stolen bases and 1,045 runs in his career.
He has not quite done enough to achieve those numbers, however, as he stands at 1,717 hits, 124 home runs and 773 runs scored. Though he received MVP votes in 2004 (finishing 14th out of 30), he has never been an All-Star and hasn't lived up to the initial hype that surrounded him.
He has always been a solid defender, however--he has led centerfielders in assists three times and rightfielders twice. He led all outfielders in fielding percentage once and career dWAR is 2.8, which is good (?).
Statistically, he is related to a bunch of "could have beens," guys who, with a bit more luck and just a few more counting stats, may have Hall of Fame arguments. For example, his most similar batters through age 35 list includes names like Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Jose Cruz, Felipe Alou, Augie Galan and Ken Griffey, Sr. His most similar player through age 24 was Johnny Damon and through age 29 it was Amos Otis. His most similar batters, overall, are Randy Winn, Garry Maddox, Darrin Erstad, Vic Power, Jorge Orta, Jimmy Piersall, Lou Piniella, Gregg Jefferies, Dave Philley and Al Cowens.
Just for fun, here are his current career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:
2030 G
7711 PA
7010 AB
846 R
1935 H
386 2B
50 3B
142 HR
788 RBI
106 SB
605 BB
812 K
.276 BA
What do you think about Mark Kotsay? Did he ever have Hall of Fame potential? Even in his advanced age, does he have a shot at putting together some sort of a Hall of Fame career?
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