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  • why Chipper is a 1st ballot guy

    http://swingingbuntz.com/2012/04/07/...hall-of-famer/

    and why one guy thinks he's not

    http://swingingbuntz.com/2012/04/19/...-counterpoint/

    hope you like it..

  • #2
    I don't know if Jones will get in on the first ballot, but at least I don't have to wonder what cap he'll be wearing on his plaque.
    They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

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    • #3
      It depends on how the voters get positional adjustment (funny that the article elaborates on somethings as important as that he is a switch hitter but completely ignores position-sometimes I think that you coul pick a random BBF poster writing better articles than those "pro writers")

      If he was a LF or 1B he would still probably be a HOFer (141 OPS+, MVP, 1500+ RBI, 450 HRs) but as a 3B man he is probably top3 ever (depends on whether you consider Arod a 3B).

      unfortunately a lot of voters just think of "corner IF" if they think of 3B men (basically throwing them into the same category as 1B men) which leads to them being a little underrated. 3B is a tough defensive position similar to CF but CF usually gets why more credit for being a premium position (of course chipper was not a good 3B man in the field but that's another story).

      still this shouldn't keep chipper from going in easily.
      Last edited by dominik; 04-26-2012, 01:50 PM.
      I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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      • #4
        I'm trying to think of the type of voter who would leave Chipper off their ballot that first year. For one, there's always going to be those half dozen or so voters who never vote for anyone on their first ballot, because Joe DiMaggio didn't make it on the first ballot and because they don't want a player to accidentally get a higher percentage than Babe Ruth or Willie Mays or whatever other reason goes through their idiot minds. Another much larger group of voters will not vote for Chipper because his main sell is his offense and he didn't reach either of the major milestones for sluggers or contact hitters (500 HR/3,000 hits). That group might be enough to keep him out for a year.

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        • #5
          It depends who is on the ballot. Thome, Omar, and Manny might all be first time eligible that year, though Chipper is superior to all of them. There are sure to be many holdovers from previous ballots. But it is clear that he deserves the first ballot.
          Chop! Chop! Chop!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Bigfoot 88 View Post
            It depends who is on the ballot. Thome, Omar, and Manny might all be first time eligible that year, though Chipper is superior to all of them. There are sure to be many holdovers from previous ballots. But it is clear that he deserves the first ballot.
            agreed .. that's what it always seems to boil down when verifying if someone will get in first ballot
            My blog - http://sandlotwisdom.blogspot.com/

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            • #7
              I don't care about Chipper at all (no likes or dislikes), but it's clear he is a first ballot HoF candidate. If it wasn't for other players using steroids for the prime of his career, his career OPS+ would be around 147-148, and at third base, that leaves him in rare company. Not that many writers understand this or care, but this is an easy vote, imo.
              "It's better to look good, than be good."

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              • #8
                I've seen Chipper rated as the "most negative" defensive third baseman of all time, or second most negative behind Yost, just as Jeter is the most negative defensive SS. I would go as far as to say that Piazza may be a better defensive catcher than Chipper is a third baseman.

                Using baseballgauge WAR for a couple of comparisons, Scott Rolen is almost 25 defensive WAR ahead of Jones, and that pulls them nearly equal overall.
                Todd Helton-through the same number of games loses about 12 WAR to Jones in positional adjustment but picks up about 25 in defensive WAR making him virtually equal to Jones.

                And yet Helton and Rolen are probably not going to get into the hall of fame. They both need to do something substantial for another 2-3 years probably.

                Jones is not as good a hitter as Edgar Martinez and loses most of what he gains in positional value to his poor glove. As a DH he would not be a hall of famer in my book.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by brett View Post
                  I've seen Chipper rated as the "most negative" defensive third baseman of all time, or second most negative behind Yost, just as Jeter is the most negative defensive SS. I would go as far as to say that Piazza may be a better defensive catcher than Chipper is a third baseman.

                  Using baseballgauge WAR for a couple of comparisons, Scott Rolen is almost 25 defensive WAR ahead of Jones, and that pulls them nearly equal overall.
                  Todd Helton-through the same number of games loses about 12 WAR to Jones in positional adjustment but picks up about 25 in defensive WAR making him virtually equal to Jones.

                  And yet Helton and Rolen are probably not going to get into the hall of fame. They both need to do something substantial for another 2-3 years probably.

                  Jones is not as good a hitter as Edgar Martinez and loses most of what he gains in positional value to his poor glove. As a DH he would not be a hall of famer in my book.
                  Is this the new one they introduced on 3/29/12?

                  Regardless, the one I use atm is from Baseball Ref

                  Career Position War (includes offense and defense)
                  Schmidt -108
                  Geo Brett- 85
                  Chip Jones-83
                  Sco Rolen -66
                  To Helton -60

                  Looks like Schmidt is far better than anyone we see today, but really, the gap is almost as huge from Jones to Rolen. 17 WAR is a ton, and while it's great to be a super defensive 3rd baseman, I'll take the extra 17 WAR. (I don't know why Helton is in the discussion. If he could have played 3rd, a difficult position, then he should have instead of the easiest position on the field.) Total WAR is total WAR.

                  Jones WAR puts him in the top 35th ever, while his OPS+ (adjusted for playing in the steroids era) would be around 39th. If you want to ignore the WAR, then you can look at the OPS+.

                  In 112 years of baseball, that is first ballot, unless of course, we are restricting the Hall of Fame to only the top 30 people who have ever played.


                  As far as Martinez, well you'll get no argument from me about him being a great hitter. What I will say is that no one knows what benefit he got from NOT playing on the field. As is, his OPS+ is 147 versus Jones 141. That doesn't mean anything much if we assume Martinez gained 5% more from resting every inning for 1,300 games. We can debate this, but no one knows. That's an issue for voters or someone who can analyze better than me.

                  Here is Martinez line when he played 3rd versus DH (552 games and then 1403 at DH):

                  3rd .302-.391-.459
                  DH .314-.429-.532

                  Significant difference that looks like he was 13% better when he rested on the bench and didn't have to play third. Of course, there is more we could do to manipulate this with who he faced, what park, what year, what part of the year, etc. The point is, we could do that, but all things being equal, we know that unless he's quite unlucky, these are the facts.
                  Last edited by drstrangelove; 04-26-2012, 05:18 PM.
                  "It's better to look good, than be good."

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by brett View Post
                    I've seen Chipper rated as the "most negative" defensive third baseman of all time, or second most negative behind Yost, just as Jeter is the most negative defensive SS. I would go as far as to say that Piazza may be a better defensive catcher than Chipper is a third baseman.

                    Using baseballgauge WAR for a couple of comparisons, Scott Rolen is almost 25 defensive WAR ahead of Jones, and that pulls them nearly equal overall.
                    Todd Helton-through the same number of games loses about 12 WAR to Jones in positional adjustment but picks up about 25 in defensive WAR making him virtually equal to Jones.

                    And yet Helton and Rolen are probably not going to get into the hall of fame. They both need to do something substantial for another 2-3 years probably.

                    Jones is not as good a hitter as Edgar Martinez and loses most of what he gains in positional value to his poor glove. As a DH he would not be a hall of famer in my book.
                    Total Zone (brWAR) and Defensive Win Shares have Jones a little below average. DRA (baseballgauge) and WOWY have Jones as being horrific. For the years in which UZR and +/- exist, Jones is in-between the two extremes. I'd suggest averaging it all out.

                    The reason why there is so much discrepancy is the Braves pitchers. The metrics which assume that all the balls that Chipper fielded were his own defense, Jones looks good. The metrics that show the Braves pitchers to have a bigger impact on weak contact, show Chipper as much worse. Blame BABIP per batted ball type assumptions.

                    But good luck ever truly separating defense and pitching.

                    What you didn't mention, is that even with the major defensive downgrade in the new bgWAR, Jones still finishes 4th all-time for SS and 63rd of all players since 1900. In-between Carl Hubbell and Cal Ripken Jr.

                    One more thing, the average bgWAR total is lower than the average brWAR total due to replacement baseline differences. So 60 bgWAR is actually better than 60 brWAR.
                    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-26-2012, 04:53 PM.
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                    • #11
                      Just judging from watching Chipper play for so long, I could not agree that he is one of the worst defensive third basemen ever. His side to side range is not great, but it isn't bad. I have seen few better at attacking choppers or slow rollers to third. He lacks the quickness of a Scott Rolen when line drives are hit to him. In my mind, he seems to be the definition of an average defensive third baseman. Offense has always been where his value is at, and I think you do have to take into account positional value. I do not like it when people take into account his ranks as a switch hitters; to me it is meaningless and almost diminishes him, as if he wouldn't otherwise be great if he wasn't a switch hitter.
                      Chop! Chop! Chop!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                        Total Zone (brWAR) and Defensive Win Shares have Jones a little below average. DRA (baseballgauge) and WOWY have Jones as being horrific. For the years in which UZR and +/- exist, Jones is in-between the two extremes. I'd suggest averaging it all out.

                        The reason why there is so much discrepancy is the Braves pitchers. The metrics which assume that all the balls that Chipper fielded were his own defense, Jones looks good. The metrics that show the Braves pitchers to have a bigger impact on weak contact, show Chipper as much worse. Blame BABIP per batted ball type assumptions.

                        But good luck ever truly separating defense and pitching.

                        What you didn't mention, is that even with the major defensive downgrade in the new bgWAR, Jones still finishes 4th all-time for SS and 63rd of all players since 1900. In-between Carl Hubbell and Cal Ripken Jr.

                        One more thing, the average bgWAR total is lower than the average brWAR total due to replacement baseline differences. So 60 bgWAR is actually better than 60 brWAR.
                        I always forget about the anomalies of those Braves staffs. SabrMatt's play by play rating also puts Chipper as one of the worst all time, like 150 runs below average.
                        Also it looks like BBGauge gives less of a positional value to playing third base at least among modern players. Jones is a hall of famer, but his batting similarity to Helton at a lesser position but with better defense would make Helton a pretty clear hall of famer if Jones is a sure first ballot guy. I do think that deadball third basemen get underrated in WAR because there were more bunt attempts and infield contact to the third base side, but overall I am not sure that a modern third baseman who is 4th or 5th all time in WAR would match a shortstop who is in the 8-12 range all time. I think overall it is a position that gets guys who coudn't cut it at shortstop in the minors. Then again its a hard position for a lot of teams to fill. I am a little surprised that the WAR systems put third base above centerfield.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bigfoot 88 View Post
                          Just judging from watching Chipper play for so long, I could not agree that he is one of the worst defensive third basemen ever. His side to side range is not great, but it isn't bad. I have seen few better at attacking choppers or slow rollers to third. He lacks the quickness of a Scott Rolen when line drives are hit to him. In my mind, he seems to be the definition of an average defensive third baseman.
                          That's my opinion, exactly.
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                          • #14
                            I deff think he's a hall of famer but this going out deal is kinda corny. It's not like he's a legend, he was good but no need to send a guy like him a Kareem or Dr. J kinda sendoff. The Bleacher Report guys will give this guy alot of props but too me he's right there with Santo as far as all time 3rd basemen are.

                            No disrespect to him but it's a sad tale when one of the Generation X legends is Chipper Jones. I will miss him though.

                            Unregarded but I will deff miss Brandon Inge of the Tigers, always liked that guy.
                            "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                            "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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                            • #15
                              Is Chipper a first ballot guy if Bagwell is not?
                              Is Chipper that much better than Helton or Edmonds or Larry Walker or Edgar Martinez that he gets in first ballot and they might never get in?
                              How about this one: If Chipper is not a first ballot guy then should Jeter or Piazza or FRANK THOMAS be,considering that they are clearly near the top of their positions offensively speaking.


                              I will say this. If Chipper Jones is not elected on the first ballot he will possibly be the greatest eligible player who is not in and so there is a good case.
                              Last edited by brett; 04-27-2012, 12:42 PM.

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