Today's 300 home run hitters: 2012 edition

[Cowtipper]

It's time to do this year's version of these polls.

Last year, there were 19 active players with 300 or more home runs. Today, there are 22 (if we include Derrek Lee, which we are going to).

The current players with 300 or more home runs are as follows:

(name, home run total, RBI total, batting average)

Alex Rodriguez, 634 HR, 1907 RBI, .301 AVG
Jim Thome, 604 HR, 1674 RBI, .277 AVG
Manny Ramirez, 555 HR, 1831 RBI, .312 AVG
Chipper Jones, 459 HR, 1582 RBI, .304 AVG
Vladimir Guerrero, 449 HR, 1496 RBI, .318 AVG
Albert Pujols, 446 HR, 1340 RBI, .326 AVG
Jason Giambi, 429 HR, 1403 RBI, .281 AVG
Andruw Jones, 423 HR, 1261 RBI, .256 AVG
Paul Konerko, 402 HR, 1279 RBI, .283 AVG
David Ortiz, 385 HR, 1289 RBI, .285 AVG
Adam Dunn, 375 HR, 947 RBI, .243 AVG
Lance Berkman, 358 HR, 1195 RBI, .296 AVG
Todd Helton, 351 HR, 1329 RBI, .322 AVG
Carlos Lee, 351 HR, 1300 RBI, .286 AVG
Alfonso Soriano, 340 HR, 941 RBI, .274 AVG
Derrek Lee, 331 HR, 1078 RBI, .281 AVG
Mark Teixeira, 318 HR, 1034 RBI, .280 AVG
Aramis Ramirez, 317 HR, 1139 RBI, .283 AVG
Adrian Beltre, 316 HR, 1132 RBI, .277 AVG
Carlos Beltran, 312 HR, 1173 RBI, .283 AVG
Scott Rolen, 310 HR, 1259 RBI, .281 AVG
Miguel Tejada, 304 HR, 1282 RBI, .285 AVG

Dropped from the list is Ivan Rodriguez. New to the list is Mark Teixeira, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran. Players that just missed making the list are Ryan Howard (286 HR) and Torii Hunter (285).

Here are last year's results of players who were on that list and the current list:

Chipper Jones, 100.00%
Albert Pujols, 96.77%
Alex Rodriguez, 93.55%
Vladimir Guerrero, 90.32%
Jim Thome, 87.10%
Scott Rolen, 61.29%
Manny Ramirez, 48.39%
Todd Helton, 41.94%
Andruw Jones, 29.03%
Lance Berkman, 25.81%
Paul Konerko, 16.13%
David Ortiz, 16.13%
Jason Giambi, 9.68%
Adam Dunn, 6.45%
Carlos Lee, 6.45%
Alfonso Soriano, 6.45%
Miguel Tejada, 6.45%
Derrek Lee, 3.23%

So, which of these guys should make the Hall of Fame?

[Edgartohof]

Alex Rodriguez - yes
Jim Thome - yes
Manny Ramirez - should but probably won't
Chipper Jones - yes
Vladimir Guerrero - I waiver on him at times, he was a fabulous hitter but I say no right now
Albert Pujols - yes, even with doing nothing else in his career.
Jason Giambi - no
Andruw Jones - maybe, let's not forget his amazing Defense! And he could hit a little at times.
Paul Konerko - no, solid player but no, not yet anyways. He has done more to help his chances than pretty much anyone the last 3 years
David Ortiz - no
Adam Dunn - no
Lance Berkman - no
Todd Helton - no
Carlos Lee - no
Alfonso Soriano - no
Derrek Lee - no
Mark Teixeira - no
Aramis Ramirez - no
Adrian Beltre - no
Carlos Beltran - no
Scott Rolen - yes
Miguel Tejada - no

[Cowtipper]

I went back to the first poll I did in this series, which was in 2008, and tracked the percentages each player has received in the polls. Look at the up-and-down totals for some of these guys - of note are Berkman, Edmonds, Helton, A. Jones, Konerko and Ramirez.

Name				2011		2010		2009		2008
										
Moises		Alou						1.89		2.08
Lance		Berkman		25.81		16.67		35.85		
Barry		Bonds								64.54
Carlos		Delgado						28.30		20.83
Adam 		Dunn		6.45		11.90		11.32		
Jermaine	Dye						1.89		
Jim		Edmonds				45.24		7.55		10.42
Steve		Finley								2.08
Jason		Giambi		9.68		7.14		9.43		2.08
Troy		Glaus				4.76		1.89		
Luis		Gonzalez					3.77		4.17
Shawn		Green								2.08
Ken		Griffey				100.00		100.00		95.83
Vladimir	Guerrero	90.32		85.71		77.36		83.33
Todd		Helton		41.94		40.48		60.38		37.50
Chipper		Jones		100.00		95.24		98.11		79.17
Andruw		Jones		29.03		19.05		5.66		27.08
Jeff		Kent								60.42
Paul		Konerko		16.13		4.76		1.89		
Carlos		Lee		6.45		4.76				
Derrek		Lee		3.23		7.14				
David		Ortiz		16.13		7.14		1.89		
Mike		Piazza								83.33
Albert		Pujols		96.77		97.62		94.34		
Manny		Ramirez		48.39		83.33		75.47		87.50
Alex		Rodriguez	93.55		83.33		86.79		95.83
Ivan		Rodriguez	80.65		80.95		83.02		
Scott		Rolen		61.29		45.24				
Reggie 		Sanders								2.08
Richie		Sexson						0.00		
Gary		Sheffield					50.94		50.00
Alfonso		Soriano		6.45		4.76				
Sammy		Sosa								47.92
Miguel		Tejada		6.45						
Frank		Thomas								91.67
Jim		Thome		87.10		85.71		92.45		62.50

[redban]

Vladimir Guerrero - I waiver on him at times, he was a fabulous hitter but I say no right now

.318 career hitter / 449 HR / MVP award / Great arm in RF .. should be a lock.

You say yes to Rolen but no to Vlad?

[Cowtipper]

This is who I voted for:

Alex Rodriguez
Jim Thome
Manny Ramirez
Chipper Jones
Vladimir Guerrero
Albert Pujols
Andruw Jones

All of the above have done enough to merit election right now. If they were to retire tomorrow, I would support them.

Paul Konerko
Mark Teixeira

These two aren't there yet, but I think they will be when they are done playing.

Todd Helton

I think he's actually doing more harm than good by continuing to play at a subpar level. I may rescind my support for him if he does that year after year.

Scott Rolen

I'm a bit on the fence with him, but his stellar defense and accolades put him over the edge for now.

Guy I don't think I'd ever support are Giambi, both Lees, Soriano, A. Ramirez and Tejada. Ortiz and Dunn would need to reach at least 500 home runs for me to support them. Berkman, Beltre and Beltran may earn my support in the future, depending on where their careers take them.

[dominik]

Alex Rodriguez - yes
Jim Thome - yes
Manny Ramirez - should but probably won't
Chipper Jones - yes
Vladimir Guerrero - I waiver on him at times, he was a fabulous hitter but I say no right now
Albert Pujols - yes, even with doing nothing else in his career.
Jason Giambi - no
Andruw Jones - maybe, let's not forget his amazing Defense! And he could hit a little at times.
Paul Konerko - no, solid player but no, not yet anyways. He has done more to help his chances than pretty much anyone the last 3 years
David Ortiz - no
Adam Dunn - no
Lance Berkman - no
Todd Helton - no
Carlos Lee - no
Alfonso Soriano - no
Derrek Lee - no
Mark Teixeira - no
Aramis Ramirez - no
Adrian Beltre - no
Carlos Beltran - no
Scott Rolen - yes
Miguel Tejada - no

I wonder how many guys say no on giambi. he lacks a little longevity but his peak was absolutely dominant. he was probably the best AL hitter for several years. he also won the MVP and posted a 199 OPS+ season which from that list only thome could do.

his 5 year peak was flat out dominant:

171 OPS+
.444 OBP

off that list only pujols (177) and manny (172) can match this. Arod (155), chipper (154) and ortiz (156) never came close to 171 over 5 years.

Of course he did use steroids but so did many other players on that list (Arod, manny, ortiz, tejada)

[redban]

Alex Rodriguez: No
Jim Thome: Yes
Manny Ramirez: No
Chipper Jones: Yes
Vladimir Guerrero: Yes
Albert Pujols: Yes
Jason Giambi: No
Andruw Jones: No, he had a good shot, but after 2006 he went downhill.
Paul Konerko: No
David Ortiz: No
Adam Dunn: No
Lance Berkman: Right now, no. But it could change.
Todd Helton: No
Carlos Lee: No
Alfonso Soriano: No
Derrek Lee: No
Mark Teixeira: Not yet..
Aramis Ramirez: No
Adrian Beltre: No
Carlos Beltran: Same as Berkman. Right now, no. But it could change.
Scott Rolen: No
Miguel Tejada: No

[willshad]

I wonder how many guys say no on giambi. he lacks a little longevity but his peak was absolutely dominant. he was probably the best AL hitter for several years. he also won the MVP and posted a 199 OPS+ season which from that list only thome could do.

his 5 year peak was flat out dominant:

171 OPS+
.444 OBP

off that list only pujols can match this. Arod, manny, chipper and ortiz never came close to 171 over 5 years.

Of course he did use steroids but so did many other players on that list (Arod, manny, ortiz, tejada)

If he was clean, Giambi would be a borderline case. somewhat similar to Albert Belle with a slightly longer career. Belle's peak was just about as good, and he was never found juicing.

The thing about A-rod and Manny is that they are so far above the HOF line, that it is possible they may have been good enough to make it without juicing. With Giambi and Ortiz we already know the answer to that question is no.

[dominik]

If he was clean, Giambi would be a borderline case. somewhat similar to Albert Belle with a slightly longer career. Belle's peak was just about as good, and he was never found juicing.

The thing about A-rod and Manny is that they are so far above the HOF line, that it is possible they may have been good enough to make it without juicing. With Giambi and Ortiz we already know the answer to that question is no.

giambi is only borderline because of his late start. he started playing full time at 25. had he started two years earlier he would probably have been a lock.

A 171 OPS+ over 5 years is historically great. only 5 or 6 players have done that in the last 40 years.

[fenrir]

Alex Rodriguez - Yes, though he will have trouble getting in.
Jim Thome - Yes
Manny Ramirez - Yes, though he probably will never get in.
Chipper Jones - Yes
Vladimir Guerrero - Yes
Albert Pujols - Yes, he may have a shot at surpassing Seaver's record vote percentage (assuming Maddux doesn't)
Jason Giambi, 429 HR, 1403 RBI, .281 AVG - No
Andruw Jones, 423 HR, 1261 RBI, .256 AVG - I could see a case, but I'm leaning towards no
Paul Konerko, 402 HR, 1279 RBI, .283 AVG - No
David Ortiz, 385 HR, 1289 RBI, .285 AVG - No
Adam Dunn, 375 HR, 947 RBI, .243 AVG = No
Lance Berkman, 358 HR, 1195 RBI, .296 AVG - Probably not
Todd Helton, 351 HR, 1329 RBI, .322 AVG - He probably won't get in, but he deserves to
Carlos Lee, 351 HR, 1300 RBI, .286 AVG - No
Alfonso Soriano, 340 HR, 941 RBI, .274 AVG - No
Derrek Lee, 331 HR, 1078 RBI, .281 AVG - No
Mark Teixeira, 318 HR, 1034 RBI, .280 AVG - No
Aramis Ramirez, 317 HR, 1139 RBI, .283 AVG - No
Adrian Beltre, 316 HR, 1132 RBI, .277 AVG - No
Carlos Beltran, 312 HR, 1173 RBI, .283 AVG - He may have a case when he retires
Scott Rolen, 310 HR, 1259 RBI, .281 AVG - I could also see a case for him
Miguel Tejada, 304 HR, 1282 RBI, .285 AVG - No

[fenrir]

giambi is only borderline because of his late start. he started playing full time at 25. had he started two years earlier he would probably have been a lock.

A 171 OPS+ over 5 years is historically great. only 5 or 6 players have done that in the last 40 years.

Giambi doesn't have the career value worthy of the HOF. His case solely rests on his steroid enhanced peak. He was a beast during his juiced prime, but overall he falls way short to Arod or Manny.

[Bigfoot 88]

No doubt for me:
A-Rod
Thome
Manny
Chipper
Vladdy
Pujols

Not slam dunk, but they are very deserving:
Andruw Jones
Scott Rolen

Borderline:
Carlos Beltran

I could have voted for Giambi and Helton, but ultimately I need to see more.

[Cowtipper]

It's a small sample size, but Paul Konerko's support has risen for the fourth straight year. Manny's has rebounded after dropping below 50% last year--though I'm not sure how long that support will last.

[bluesky5]

In My Opinion
Rodriguez - Yea, eh, I suppose.
Thome
Chipper
Guerrero
Pujols
Andruw Jones
Konerko
Rolen

Maybe in a Few Years
Beltre
Beltran
Berkman

[Cowtipper]

Career projections using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

Alex Rodriguez: 725 HR, 2250 RBI, 3221 H
Albert Pujols: 685 HR, 2007 RBI, 3078 H
Jim Thome: 637 HR, 1773 RBI, 2411 H
Manny Ramirez: 576 HR, 1901 RBI, 2690 H
Adam Dunn: 549 HR, 1464 RBI, 2039 H
Mark Teixeira: 517 HR, 1652 RBI, 2372 H
Paul Konerko: 508 HR, 1605 RBI, 2582 H
Vladimir Guerrero: 507 HR, 1717 RBI, 3019 H
Andruw Jones: 488 HR, 1427 RBI, 2123 H
David Ortiz: 481 HR, 1614 RBI, 2243 H
Chipper Jones: 477 HR, 1,654 RBI, 2785 H
Jason Giambi: 444 HR, 1460 RBI, 2022 H
Lance Berkman: 436 HR, 1455 RBI, 2244 H
Carlos Lee: 433 HR, 1623 RBI, 2716 H
Derrek Lee: 425 HR, 1400 RBI, 2477 H
Alfonso Soriano: 418 HR, 1166 RBI, 2168 H
Aramis Ramirez: 405 HR, 1481 RBI, 2304 H
Adrian Beltre: 403 HR, 1480 RBI, 2765 H
Todd Helton: 378 HR, 1475 RBI, 2722 H
Scott Rolen: 347 HR, 1449 RBI, 2387 H
Carlos Beltran: 346 HR, 1334 RBI, 2295 H
Miguel Tejada: 335 HR, 1459 RBI, 2785 H