Bartolo Colon

[Cowtipper]

In his 15-year career, Bartolo Colon has gone 164-116 with a 4.09 ERA. With six 15+ win seasons and two 20+ wins seasons under his belt, Colon also has 32 complete games and nine shutouts to his name. The 2005 AL Cy Young Award and TSN Pitcher of the Year winner has been an All-Star twice, finished 4th and 6th in two other rounds of Cy Young voting and finished as high as 23rd in MVP voting.

Colon has led the league in wins once and complete games once. All-time, he is 94th in strikeouts and among active players, he is sixth in complete games, seventh in shutouts and eighth in wins. He has decent grey ink, at 107, though his black ink is a little lacking at only seven.

In the postseason, Colon has generally been solid, despite a 2-3 record. In nine starts, he has a 3.61 ERA with 41 strikeouts and a hits-per-inning ratio of less than one. In three of the six series in which he has pitched, he has posted ERAs below two. In the 2001 ALDS with Cleveland, he struckout 13 batters in 14.2 innings, while in the 1998 ALCS, he tossed a complete game, surrendering only a single run.

Statistically, Colon is similar to Freddy Garcia, Bruce Hurst, Kevin Millwood, Chris Carpenter, Mike Hampton, Aaron Sele, General Crowder, Jason Schmidt, Mark Buehrle and Todd Stottlemyre. He is ranked #195 on the Fan EloRater, ahead of Slim Sallee, Johnny Antonelli and Murry Dickson, but behind Dan Haren, John Tudor and Jack Stivetts.

Career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

181 W
134 L
815 BB
1970 K

What do you think about Bartolo Colon? When he retires, will he be a Hall of Famer? Did he ever have Hall of Fame potential?

[PVNICK]

He got a late start and fell off a cliff after 2005. At that point in time it was possible with a 139-82 record 3.94 ERA over 1819 IP ERA+ 116 and a twenty, two 18 and another twenty win season split beteween the two leagues under his belt. It didn't happen.

[jjpm74]

He definitely had the ability early in his career.

[Freakshow]

He definitely had the ability early in his career.

Thru his age-30 season he was similar to three HOF pitchers from the past century.

Player                WAR ERA+     IP From   To   W   L
Andy Pettitte        29.9  118 1584.1 1995 2002 128  70
Ned Garver           29.7  117 1778.1 1948 1956  97 108
Dan Haren            29.4  119 1700.0 2003 2011 107  84
Bob Gibson           29.4  125 1728.2 1959 1966 112  81 H
[COLOR="#FF0000"]Bartolo Colon        28.4  121 1388.2 1997 2003 100  62[/COLOR]
David Cone           26.8  119 1521.0 1986 1993  95  65
Chuck Finley         26.8  119 1450.0 1986 1993  89  76
Howie Pollet         26.7  121 1530.1 1941 1951 103  75
Jim Bagby            26.6  124 1463.0 1912 1920 106  70
Jake Peavy           26.6  114 1581.1 2002 2011 109  81
Jim Bunning          26.6  119 1619.0 1955 1962 106  74 H
Tommy Bridges        26.2  122 1734.0 1930 1937 120  86
Sid Fernandez        26.0  113 1590.2 1983 1993  98  79
Pat Hentgen          26.0  113 1555.2 1991 1999 105  76
Van Mungo            25.7  114 1739.1 1931 1941 102  99
Gaylord Perry        25.7  117 1685.2 1962 1969  95  84 H
Alex Fernandez       25.7  115 1760.1 1990 2000 107  87

So it's all dependent on one's interpretation of the word "potential". For me, at no point in his career do I see a solid HOF-type profile so I said no. The 3 HOFers in that list had their peaks immediately after age 30.

Most WAR ages 31-35, past hundred years:

Rk           Player  WAR ERA+     IP From   To   W  L
1        [COLOR="#FF0000"]Bob Gibson 36.8[/COLOR]  146 1333.2 1967 1971  94 49
2       Kevin Brown 35.4  164 1209.2 1996 2000  82 41
3     [COLOR="#FF0000"]Gaylord Perry 34.9[/COLOR]  133 1617.2 1970 1974 103 73
4     Roger Clemens 34.3  162 1052.0 1994 1998  70 38
5       Lefty Grove 34.0  149 1238.0 1931 1935 108 42
6    Curt Schilling 32.3  138 1175.1 1998 2002  86 45
7     Randy Johnson 31.3  169 1004.2 1995 1999  79 26
8         Red Faber 30.4  134 1395.1 1920 1924  92 67
9      Roy Halladay 30.3  157 1025.2 2008 2012  80 40
10      [COLOR="#FF0000"]Jim Bunning 30.2[/COLOR]  130 1440.0 1963 1967  86 59

[Cowtipper]

He definitely had the ability early in his career.

I agree, he definitely had the talent to at least be a low-level Hall of Famer. There were obvious roadblocks when he was younger, including an elevated ERA, but to have nearly 140 wins through age 32 these days seems like a pretty rare feat. Only six other active pitchers had 140 wins (or thereabouts) through age 32: Andy Pettitte, Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, CC Sabathia, Mark Buehrle and Barry Zito.

[willshad]

If he had aged great, he could have been a HOF candiidate...but still would have probably fallen short. If we double his career at age 32, we get something very similar to Mike Mussina. Probably a bit worse, and maybe closer to jack Morris. In any event, he would have had to be really good up until age 40 just to be that good.

[Cowtipper]

Well, upon being busted for PEDs, I think Colon just lost the two courtesy votes he was going to when he made it onto the ballot.

[Bothrops Atrox]

So it's all dependent on one's interpretation of the word "potential". For me, at no point in his career do I see a solid HOF-type profile so I said no.

I agree. To me, "potential" means that a guy was at some point on a reasonable HOF pace. Think Frank Tanana who was on a decent HOF pace after 4-5 seasons, but then was just a mediocre pitcher for 15 years. Or Jose Rijo, who was one of the NL's best pitchers for 5-6 years before falling off the cliff. those guys had "potential." Colon was never putting up HOF numbers at any point. If we are talking about the "stuff" or "talent" somebody had - well we could say that hundreds of pitchers had the "stuff" or "talent" to be HOFers. And if you look at guys like Glavine who became HOFers w/o great "stuff", it makes looking at "stuff" irrelevant. Any pitcher that throws 90+ with a good breaking ball and command has the innate "talent" to be a HOFer. Even most of those do not.

So did Colon have the 'ability" to be a HOFer. Yeah, he had the stuff to do so. But so have countless other pitchers.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Fat Bart has put himself back on the HOF map, based on what he has done the past 2 years, and especially what he's done this year. I don't know if this is due to PEDs, but he's being tested. If the synthetic testosterone enabled Colon to come back from the dead and resume pitching in the majors, I am not going to pound him.

Colon could, conceivably win 300 games (although he needs to get to 200 first). It's not likely, but Colon knows how to pitch, and he could be the next Jamie Moyer.

More than likely, Colon would max out at 230-250 wins, but with a LOT of chrome and leather. Multiple 20 win seasons. A Cy Young Award. A remarkable comeback. Colon has the possibility of salvaging his HOF chances if he can keep this level of pitching up for a few more years. And he may well be able to do just that.

[Cowtipper]

Fat Bart has put himself back on the HOF map, based on what he has done the past 2 years, and especially what he's done this year. I don't know if this is due to PEDs, but he's being tested. If the synthetic testosterone enabled Colon to come back from the dead and resume pitching in the majors, I am not going to pound him.

Colon could, conceivably win 300 games (although he needs to get to 200 first). It's not likely, but Colon knows how to pitch, and he could be the next Jamie Moyer.

More than likely, Colon would max out at 230-250 wins, but with a LOT of chrome and leather. Multiple 20 win seasons. A Cy Young Award. A remarkable comeback. Colon has the possibility of salvaging his HOF chances if he can keep this level of pitching up for a few more years. And he may well be able to do just that.

Colon is 40 years old. You really think he could win 111 games past the age of 40? Even the great Moyer himself won only 84 games post-40.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Colon is 40 years old. You really think he could win 111 games past the age of 40? Even the great Moyer himself won only 84 games post-40.

Not likely, but not impossible. Colon knows how to pitch, and his season this year was truly remarkable. Colon was the pitching star of a possible pennant winner. The A's could not have won the AL West without Colon this year. He could add more chrome and leather if the A's make the WS and he's the pitching star.

Colon has a 1% chance to win 300 games, but he has a 50% chance to win 230 games. His chances to win 230 could drop to near zero if he blows out hi arm tomorrow, but if he wins 15 next year, he's 50-50. And he's lowering his career ERA. Although this is due to he end of the PED era, this trend will continue to show in the bottom line.

[Cougar]

Not likely, but not impossible. Colon knows how to pitch, and his season this year was truly remarkable. Colon was the pitching star of a possible pennant winner. The A's could not have won the AL West without Colon this year. He could add more chrome and leather if the A's make the WS and he's the pitching star.

Colon has a 1% chance to win 300 games, but he has a 50% chance to win 230 games. His chances to win 230 could drop to near zero if he blows out hi arm tomorrow, but if he wins 15 next year, he's 50-50. And he's lowering his career ERA. Although this is due to he end of the PED era, this trend will continue to show in the bottom line.

How do you figure 50% for winning 230 games? That would be 41 wins following his age 40 season.

It's a small sample size of pitchers reaching their age 41 season to begin with, but how many of those have gotten 40 more wins? Moyer, Niekro, maybe Wilhelm....I'm sure I'm forgetting some. How many non-knuckleballers?

Someone who knows the B-R.com query mechanism better than me can probably answer this question, but I feel safe in saying it's a really low number. So 50% seems really optimistic.

That said, Colon's 2013 season is amazing. How is he getting all those outs throwing almost exclusively fastballs hovering around 90 mph? Seems like witchcraft!

[jalbright]

There are 11 guys in the history of the game with 40 or more wins after age 40, per bbref:

Rk Player W

1 Phil Niekro 100
2 Jamie Moyer 84
3 Jack Quinn 84
4 Nolan Ryan 63
5 Randy Johnson 57
6 Warren Spahn 54
7 Cy Young 54
8 Charlie Hough 52
9 Hoyt Wilhelm 49
10 Roger Clemens 44
11 Tommy John 40

[ol' aches and pains]

He's been linked to PED's, and his case wasn't that strong to begin with, so no, no chance IMO.

[Cougar]

There are 11 guys in the history of the game with 40 or more wins after age 40, per bbref:

Rk Player W

1 Phil Niekro 100
2 Jamie Moyer 84
3 Jack Quinn 84
4 Nolan Ryan 63
5 Randy Johnson 57
6 Warren Spahn 54
7 Cy Young 54
8 Charlie Hough 52
9 Hoyt Wilhelm 49
10 Roger Clemens 44
11 Tommy John 40

Thanks Jim,

So omitting knuckleballers and spitballers, you've got Moyer, Ryan, Unit, Spahn, Cy Young, Clemens, and Tommy John.

More than I would have thought, actually. But there's clearly two tiers in that group:

Among the greatest pitchers of all time: Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn, Cy Young, Roger Clemens

Very good pitchers with freaky longevity: Jamie Moyer, Tommy John

I can see Colon in the second group, maybe, sure.