"Today's generation" of starting pitchers: 2012 edition

[Cowtipper]

Which of "today's generation" of starting pitchers do you think should make it to the Hall of Fame? These are the criteria I used to determine "today's generation" of starting pitchers:

100+ wins
Career started in 2002 or later
Or is now 33 years of age or younger
.500 WP or better

Last year, there were 14 players on this list. The number remains the same this year.

Here are the ages, records and ERAs of each, sorted by wins:

C.C. Sabathia, 31, 181-97, 3.52
Mark Buehrle, 33, 163-123, 3.81
Johan Santana, 33, 134-71, 3.10
Jon Garland, 32, 132-119, 4.32
Carlos Zambrano, 31, 126-83, 3.56
John Lackey, 33, 128-94, 4.10
Josh Beckett, 32, 128-85, 3.86
Cliff Lee, 33, 119-70, 3.61
Jake Peavy, 31, 113-82, 3.44
Jusin Verlander, 29, 111-58, 3.49
Dan Haren, 31, 108-88, 3.61
Kyle Lohse, 33, 107-107, 4.58
Jason Marquis, 33, 106-101, 4.59
Joel Pineiro, 32, 104-93, 4.41

The players that dropped off the list from last year are:

Roy Oswalt
Vicente Padilla
Brad Penny
Barry Zito

New to the list are Joel Pineiro, Kyle Lohse, Dan Haren, Justin Verlander

Pitchers that just missed making this list include Aaron Harang (97 wins) and Brett Myers (94 wins).

Here are last year's percentages:

C.C. Sabathia: 50%
Johan Santana: 50%
Roy Oswalt: 30%
Josh Beckett: 15%
Mark Buehrle: 10%
Cliff Lee: 10%
Everyone else: 0%

And so I repeat: Which of "today's generation" of starting pitchers do you think should make it to the Hall of Fame?

[Bothrops Atrox]

Sabathia - 90% chance
Buehrle - 25%
Santana - 30%
Garland - 0%
Zambrano - 0%
Lackey - 0%
Beckett - 0%
Lee - 15%
Peavy - 5%
Verlander - 30%
Haren - 0%
Loshe - 0%
Marquis - 0%
Pinerio - 0%

[GiambiJuice]

Sabathia - 90% chance
Buehrle - 25%
Santana - 30%
Garland - 0%
Zambrano - 0%
Lackey - 0%
Beckett - 0%
Lee - 15%
Peavy - 5%
Verlander - 30%
Haren - 0%
Loshe - 0%
Marquis - 0%
Pinerio - 0%

I see it a little bit differently than you do.

Sabathia - 75%
Verlander - 50%
Everyone else - 0%

[PVNICK]

I think it should (which I take means my choice rather than will) be Sabathia, who is not as good as his record but way better than just a guy lucky to pitch for the Yankees and get a lot of wins, Santana and Verlander. Realistically Santana is going to fall short of career length, wins, IP whatever. Lee will be the same story with his best years placed differently within his career than Santana. Buerhle as good and underappreciated as he may be won't get in the bar is too high these days even if he winds up with comparable wins, IP ERA+ to guys like Rixey, Grimes, Willis and such. Beckett, Haren and Peavy all had seasons worthy of HOFers just far far too few and look as if they are on the downside of their careers.

[J W]

I see it a little bit differently than you do.

Sabathia - 75%
Verlander - 50%
Everyone else - 0%

0% chance for Johan Santana? Really? He's only 33... all he has to do is stay healthy for ~6 more seasons and get to 200 wins. Heck, he might be elected without 200 wins.

[tag0519]

I'd say Sabathia and Verlander. Santana and Lee will have to finish their careers strong for them to get in the Hall.

[GiambiJuice]

0% chance for Johan Santana? Really? He's only 33... all he has to do is stay healthy for ~6 more seasons and get to 200 wins. Heck, he might be elected without 200 wins.

Expecting Johan Santana to stay healthy for 6 more seasons is like expecting the cast of Jersey Store to stay sober for 6 seasons.

[redban]

I can only see Sabitha making it. He should have 200 wins by the end of next season, at age 32-33. So 300 wins isn't impossible.

Santana had a really good shot, but the recent injuries shot him down.

Verlander? Maybe.. last year was really good, but he needs a few more Cy-Young quality seasons.

[1905 Giants]

Sabathia. Verlander has a shot, but he has to do more.

[jjpm74]

CC Sabathia--the only person on this list with a legitimate shot at 300 wins. He's been a dominant force and is very durable. He's in.

Johan Santana--Should get to 200 wins and was as dominant as Pedro Martinez early in his career. Barring a career ending injury, he will get in.

Justin Verlander--I voted for him because he had an all-time great season last year and I support Ron Guidry for the HOF and if Verlander's career ended today, he would have Guidry's career.

Dan Haren--I did not intentionally vote for him. I guess I clicked his box when I clicked Verlander's box.

Notable--Cliff Lee. If he can stick around long enough, he can end up with a HOF career as well. He is not quite there yet and gets overshadowed by the greatest pitcher of the past 20 years which might help or hurt his cause depending on what the Phillies do over the next 5 years.

[Cowtipper]

Career projections using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

CC Sabathia: 303-143 WL, 3434 K
Justin Verlander: 255-103 WL, 3001 K
Mark Buehrle: 234-186 WL, 1980 K
Josh Beckett: 187-133 WL, 2466 K
Carlos Zambrano: 185-129 WL, 2357 K
Jon Garland: 184-164 WL, 1634 K
John Lackey: 177-136 WL, 1991 K
Dan Haren: 175-167 WL, 2693 K
Jake Peavy: 175-116 WL, 2369 K
Johan Santana: 173-105 WL, 2556 K
Cliff Lee: 171-113 WL, 2351 K
Kyle Lohse: 163-141 WL, 1612 K
Joel Pineiro: 137-119 WL, 1368 K
Jason Marquis: 132-151 WL, 1234 K

[Bigfoot 88]

So far Johan has his strikeout rate back up this year. He should eclipse 2000 innings and 2000 strikeouts.

[Cowtipper]

I just went with Sabathia and Verlander. This is a horribly weak era for pitchers.

[Cowtipper]

Here are past voting results:

				2011		2010		2009		2008
										
Scott		Baker		0.00		0.00				
Josh		Beckett		15.00		9.52		38.24		
Chad		Billingsley	0.00		0.00				
Joe		Blanton				0.00				
Mark		Buehrle		10.00		7.14		26.47		7.69
AJ		Burnett				2.38				
Chris		Carpenter	0.00		0.00				0.00
Bartolon	Colon		0.00						
John		Danks				0.00				
Kelvim		Escobar						0.00		0.00
Gavin		Floyd		0.00		0.00				
Jeff		Francis				0.00				
Yovani		Gallardo	8.33						
Freddy		Garcia		0.00		0.00		0.00		0.00
Jon		Garland		0.00		2.38		0.00		0.00
Roy		Halladay	96.15		92.86		88.24		73.08
Cole		Hamels		0.00		0.00				
Rich		Harden		0.00		0.00				
Dan		Haren				0.00				
Livan		Hernandez			0.00				0.00
Felix		Hernandez	50.00		46.67				
Tim		Hudson		11.54		38.46		8.82		34.62
Ubaldo		Jimenez		8.33		20.00				
Josh		Johnson		25.00		20.00				
Jair		Jurrjens	8.33						
Scott		Kazmir		0.00		6.67				
John		Lackey		0.00		2.38				
Cliff		Lee		10.00		9.52				
Jon		Lester		8.33		0.00				
Ted		Lilly						0.00		
Tim		Lincecum	66.67		73.33				
Francisco	Liriano		0.00						
Derek		Lowe		0.00		0.00				
Shaun		Marcum		8.33						
Jason		Marquis		0.00						
Daisuke		Matsuzaka			0.00				
Kevin		Millwood	0.00		0.00				0.00
Matt		Morris								0.00
Jamie		Moyer				15.38				
Mark		Mulder						0.00		0.00
Brett		Myers				0.00				
Ricky		Nolasco		0.00		0.00				
Russ		Ortiz								0.00
Roy		Oswalt		30.00		38.10		47.06		61.54
Vicente		Padilla				2.38				
Jake		Peavy		0.00		2.38				
Brad		Penny				2.38		0.00		
Andy		Pettitte				23.08				
CC		Sabathia	50.00		86.67		41.18		61.54
Johan		Santana		50.00		61.90		79.41		76.92
Ervin		Santana		0.00		0.00				
Joe		Saunders			0.00				
James		Shields		8.33		0.00				
Jeff		Suppan								0.00
Javier		Vazquez				7.69		0.00		0.00
Justin		Verlander	58.33		13.33				
Adam		Wainwright	0.00		6.67				
Tim		Wakefield	0.00		0.00				
Jered		Weaver		8.33		6.67				
Dontrelle	Willis		0.00		0.00				
Randy		Wolf				2.38				
Carlos		Zambrano	0.00		2.38		5.88		
Barry		Zito		0.00		4.76		0.00		0.00

[Cowtipper]

Most similar players. First is the most similar players by career totals, second is most similar players through the pitcher's current age.

C.C. Sabathia: Tim Hudson, Dave McNally
Mark Buehrle: Bill Gullickson, Frank Viola
Johan Santana: Jim Maloney, Roy Oswalt*
Jon Garland: Pat Hentgen, Scott Erickson*
Carlos Zambrano: Ramon Martinez, Ramon Martinez
John Lackey: Jack McDowell, Kevin Millwood
Josh Beckett: Jack McDowell, Kevin Millwood
Cliff Lee: John Tudor, Don Newcombe
Jake Peavy: Dan Haren, Kevin Appier
Justin Verlander: Dan Haren, Mike Mussina
Dan Haren: Alex Fernandez, Alex Fernandez
Kyle Lohse: Brett Tomko, Jeff Weaver
Jason Marquis: Mark Gardner, Pedro Astacio
Joel Pineiro: Paul Byrd, Vicente Padilla

*Through age 31

Not a single Hall of Famer on that list.