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"Today's generation" of starting pitchers: 2012 edition

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  • "Today's generation" of starting pitchers: 2012 edition

    Which of "today's generation" of starting pitchers do you think should make it to the Hall of Fame? These are the criteria I used to determine "today's generation" of starting pitchers:

    100+ wins
    Career started in 2002 or later
    Or is now 33 years of age or younger
    .500 WP or better

    Last year, there were 14 players on this list. The number remains the same this year.

    Here are the ages, records and ERAs of each, sorted by wins:

    C.C. Sabathia, 31, 181-97, 3.52
    Mark Buehrle, 33, 163-123, 3.81
    Johan Santana, 33, 134-71, 3.10
    Jon Garland, 32, 132-119, 4.32
    Carlos Zambrano, 31, 126-83, 3.56
    John Lackey, 33, 128-94, 4.10
    Josh Beckett, 32, 128-85, 3.86
    Cliff Lee, 33, 119-70, 3.61
    Jake Peavy, 31, 113-82, 3.44
    Jusin Verlander, 29, 111-58, 3.49
    Dan Haren, 31, 108-88, 3.61
    Kyle Lohse, 33, 107-107, 4.58
    Jason Marquis, 33, 106-101, 4.59
    Joel Pineiro, 32, 104-93, 4.41

    The players that dropped off the list from last year are:

    Roy Oswalt
    Vicente Padilla
    Brad Penny
    Barry Zito

    New to the list are Joel Pineiro, Kyle Lohse, Dan Haren, Justin Verlander

    Pitchers that just missed making this list include Aaron Harang (97 wins) and Brett Myers (94 wins).

    Here are last year's percentages:

    C.C. Sabathia: 50%
    Johan Santana: 50%
    Roy Oswalt: 30%
    Josh Beckett: 15%
    Mark Buehrle: 10%
    Cliff Lee: 10%
    Everyone else: 0%

    And so I repeat: Which of "today's generation" of starting pitchers do you think should make it to the Hall of Fame?
    55
    C.C. Sabathia
    36.36%
    20
    Mark Buehrle
    7.27%
    4
    Johan Santana
    23.64%
    13
    Jon Garland
    0.00%
    0
    Carlos Zambrano
    0.00%
    0
    John Lackey
    0.00%
    0
    Josh Beckett
    0.00%
    0
    Cliff Lee
    1.82%
    1
    Jake Peavy
    0.00%
    0
    Justin Verlander
    27.27%
    15
    Dan Haren
    3.64%
    2
    Kyle Lohse
    0.00%
    0
    Jason Marquis
    0.00%
    0
    Joel Pineiro
    0.00%
    0
    None of the above
    0.00%
    0

  • #2
    Sabathia - 90% chance
    Buehrle - 25%
    Santana - 30%
    Garland - 0%
    Zambrano - 0%
    Lackey - 0%
    Beckett - 0%
    Lee - 15%
    Peavy - 5%
    Verlander - 30%
    Haren - 0%
    Loshe - 0%
    Marquis - 0%
    Pinerio - 0%
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
      Sabathia - 90% chance
      Buehrle - 25%
      Santana - 30%
      Garland - 0%
      Zambrano - 0%
      Lackey - 0%
      Beckett - 0%
      Lee - 15%
      Peavy - 5%
      Verlander - 30%
      Haren - 0%
      Loshe - 0%
      Marquis - 0%
      Pinerio - 0%
      I see it a little bit differently than you do.

      Sabathia - 75%
      Verlander - 50%
      Everyone else - 0%
      My top 10 players:

      1. Babe Ruth
      2. Barry Bonds
      3. Ty Cobb
      4. Ted Williams
      5. Willie Mays
      6. Alex Rodriguez
      7. Hank Aaron
      8. Honus Wagner
      9. Lou Gehrig
      10. Mickey Mantle

      Comment


      • #4
        I think it should (which I take means my choice rather than will) be Sabathia, who is not as good as his record but way better than just a guy lucky to pitch for the Yankees and get a lot of wins, Santana and Verlander. Realistically Santana is going to fall short of career length, wins, IP whatever. Lee will be the same story with his best years placed differently within his career than Santana. Buerhle as good and underappreciated as he may be won't get in the bar is too high these days even if he winds up with comparable wins, IP ERA+ to guys like Rixey, Grimes, Willis and such. Beckett, Haren and Peavy all had seasons worthy of HOFers just far far too few and look as if they are on the downside of their careers.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by GiambiJuice
          I see it a little bit differently than you do.

          Sabathia - 75%
          Verlander - 50%
          Everyone else - 0%
          0% chance for Johan Santana? Really? He's only 33... all he has to do is stay healthy for ~6 more seasons and get to 200 wins. Heck, he might be elected without 200 wins.
          Last edited by J W; 05-17-2012, 08:07 AM.
          http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploa...-showalter.gif

          Comment


          • #6
            I'd say Sabathia and Verlander. Santana and Lee will have to finish their careers strong for them to get in the Hall.
            My blog - http://sandlotwisdom.blogspot.com/

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by J W View Post
              0% chance for Johan Santana? Really? He's only 33... all he has to do is stay healthy for ~6 more seasons and get to 200 wins. Heck, he might be elected without 200 wins.
              Expecting Johan Santana to stay healthy for 6 more seasons is like expecting the cast of Jersey Store to stay sober for 6 seasons.
              My top 10 players:

              1. Babe Ruth
              2. Barry Bonds
              3. Ty Cobb
              4. Ted Williams
              5. Willie Mays
              6. Alex Rodriguez
              7. Hank Aaron
              8. Honus Wagner
              9. Lou Gehrig
              10. Mickey Mantle

              Comment


              • #8
                I can only see Sabitha making it. He should have 200 wins by the end of next season, at age 32-33. So 300 wins isn't impossible.

                Santana had a really good shot, but the recent injuries shot him down.

                Verlander? Maybe.. last year was really good, but he needs a few more Cy-Young quality seasons.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Sabathia. Verlander has a shot, but he has to do more.
                  “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                  "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    CC Sabathia--the only person on this list with a legitimate shot at 300 wins. He's been a dominant force and is very durable. He's in.

                    Johan Santana--Should get to 200 wins and was as dominant as Pedro Martinez early in his career. Barring a career ending injury, he will get in.

                    Justin Verlander--I voted for him because he had an all-time great season last year and I support Ron Guidry for the HOF and if Verlander's career ended today, he would have Guidry's career.

                    Dan Haren--I did not intentionally vote for him. I guess I clicked his box when I clicked Verlander's box.

                    Notable--Cliff Lee. If he can stick around long enough, he can end up with a HOF career as well. He is not quite there yet and gets overshadowed by the greatest pitcher of the past 20 years which might help or hurt his cause depending on what the Phillies do over the next 5 years.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Career projections using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

                      CC Sabathia: 303-143 WL, 3434 K
                      Justin Verlander: 255-103 WL, 3001 K
                      Mark Buehrle: 234-186 WL, 1980 K
                      Josh Beckett: 187-133 WL, 2466 K
                      Carlos Zambrano: 185-129 WL, 2357 K
                      Jon Garland: 184-164 WL, 1634 K
                      John Lackey: 177-136 WL, 1991 K
                      Dan Haren: 175-167 WL, 2693 K
                      Jake Peavy: 175-116 WL, 2369 K
                      Johan Santana: 173-105 WL, 2556 K
                      Cliff Lee: 171-113 WL, 2351 K
                      Kyle Lohse: 163-141 WL, 1612 K
                      Joel Pineiro: 137-119 WL, 1368 K
                      Jason Marquis: 132-151 WL, 1234 K

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        So far Johan has his strikeout rate back up this year. He should eclipse 2000 innings and 2000 strikeouts.
                        Chop! Chop! Chop!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I just went with Sabathia and Verlander. This is a horribly weak era for pitchers.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Here are past voting results:


                            Code:
                            				2011		2010		2009		2008
                            										
                            Scott		Baker		0.00		0.00				
                            Josh		Beckett		15.00		9.52		38.24		
                            Chad		Billingsley	0.00		0.00				
                            Joe		Blanton				0.00				
                            Mark		Buehrle		10.00		7.14		26.47		7.69
                            AJ		Burnett				2.38				
                            Chris		Carpenter	0.00		0.00				0.00
                            Bartolon	Colon		0.00						
                            John		Danks				0.00				
                            Kelvim		Escobar						0.00		0.00
                            Gavin		Floyd		0.00		0.00				
                            Jeff		Francis				0.00				
                            Yovani		Gallardo	8.33						
                            Freddy		Garcia		0.00		0.00		0.00		0.00
                            Jon		Garland		0.00		2.38		0.00		0.00
                            Roy		Halladay	96.15		92.86		88.24		73.08
                            Cole		Hamels		0.00		0.00				
                            Rich		Harden		0.00		0.00				
                            Dan		Haren				0.00				
                            Livan		Hernandez			0.00				0.00
                            Felix		Hernandez	50.00		46.67				
                            Tim		Hudson		11.54		38.46		8.82		34.62
                            Ubaldo		Jimenez		8.33		20.00				
                            Josh		Johnson		25.00		20.00				
                            Jair		Jurrjens	8.33						
                            Scott		Kazmir		0.00		6.67				
                            John		Lackey		0.00		2.38				
                            Cliff		Lee		10.00		9.52				
                            Jon		Lester		8.33		0.00				
                            Ted		Lilly						0.00		
                            Tim		Lincecum	66.67		73.33				
                            Francisco	Liriano		0.00						
                            Derek		Lowe		0.00		0.00				
                            Shaun		Marcum		8.33						
                            Jason		Marquis		0.00						
                            Daisuke		Matsuzaka			0.00				
                            Kevin		Millwood	0.00		0.00				0.00
                            Matt		Morris								0.00
                            Jamie		Moyer				15.38				
                            Mark		Mulder						0.00		0.00
                            Brett		Myers				0.00				
                            Ricky		Nolasco		0.00		0.00				
                            Russ		Ortiz								0.00
                            Roy		Oswalt		30.00		38.10		47.06		61.54
                            Vicente		Padilla				2.38				
                            Jake		Peavy		0.00		2.38				
                            Brad		Penny				2.38		0.00		
                            Andy		Pettitte				23.08				
                            CC		Sabathia	50.00		86.67		41.18		61.54
                            Johan		Santana		50.00		61.90		79.41		76.92
                            Ervin		Santana		0.00		0.00				
                            Joe		Saunders			0.00				
                            James		Shields		8.33		0.00				
                            Jeff		Suppan								0.00
                            Javier		Vazquez				7.69		0.00		0.00
                            Justin		Verlander	58.33		13.33				
                            Adam		Wainwright	0.00		6.67				
                            Tim		Wakefield	0.00		0.00				
                            Jered		Weaver		8.33		6.67				
                            Dontrelle	Willis		0.00		0.00				
                            Randy		Wolf				2.38				
                            Carlos		Zambrano	0.00		2.38		5.88		
                            Barry		Zito		0.00		4.76		0.00		0.00

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Most similar players. First is the most similar players by career totals, second is most similar players through the pitcher's current age.

                              C.C. Sabathia: Tim Hudson, Dave McNally
                              Mark Buehrle: Bill Gullickson, Frank Viola
                              Johan Santana: Jim Maloney, Roy Oswalt*
                              Jon Garland: Pat Hentgen, Scott Erickson*
                              Carlos Zambrano: Ramon Martinez, Ramon Martinez
                              John Lackey: Jack McDowell, Kevin Millwood
                              Josh Beckett: Jack McDowell, Kevin Millwood
                              Cliff Lee: John Tudor, Don Newcombe
                              Jake Peavy: Dan Haren, Kevin Appier
                              Justin Verlander: Dan Haren, Mike Mussina
                              Dan Haren: Alex Fernandez, Alex Fernandez
                              Kyle Lohse: Brett Tomko, Jeff Weaver
                              Jason Marquis: Mark Gardner, Pedro Astacio
                              Joel Pineiro: Paul Byrd, Vicente Padilla

                              *Through age 31

                              Not a single Hall of Famer on that list.

                              Comment

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