The "Older Generation" of Starting Pitchers: 2012 edition

[Cowtipper]

Who in the older generation of current pitchers do you think should make the Hall of Fame one day?

125+ wins
Is now 34 years of age or older
.500 WP or better

Last year, there were 8 pitchers on this list. This year, there are 13. Here are the ages, records and ERAs of each:

Jamie Moyer: 49, 269-209, 4.25
Andy Pettitte: 40, 242-139, 3.87
Roy Halladay: 35, 192-97, 3.25
Tim Hudson: 36, 184-99, 3.42
Derek Lowe: 39, 172-149, 3.92
Kevin Millwood: 37, 166-144, 4.09
Bartolo Colon: 39, 165-118, 4.10
Roy Oswalt: 34, 159-93, 3.21
Barry Zito: 34, 149-126, 3.90
Freddy Garcia: 35, 145-97, 4.14
Chris Carpenter: 37, 144-92, 3.76
Ted Lilly: 36, 130-111, 4.13
Randy Wolf: 35, 129-111, 4.13


Pitchers who just missed making the list include Livan Hernandez (one game under .500), AJ Burnett (124 wins) and Bronson Arroyo (114 wins). Tim Wakefield dropped off the list from last year. New to the list are Jamie Moyer, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Barry Zito, Ted Lilly and Randy Wolf.

And now for last year's percentages:

Roy Halladay: 96.15%
Tim Hudson: 11.54%
Everyone else*: 0.00%

*Who appeared on last year's list as well as this year's.

So again I ask: Which of these pitchers do you think should make the Hall of Fame one day?

[Bothrops Atrox]

As far as being deserving, Halladay is an easy "in" right now. It wouldn't take much more for me to put Oswalt in, maybe a good year and a half (if he still has it in him). Hudson would need about 2 more good years. Pettitte would need quite a post-first retirement season or two. Nobody else is even in the ballpark.

[1905 Giants]

Pettite, gave Halladay the benefit of the doubt.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I dont think Halladay is a shoe-in yet but I think he can get in if he has a few more good years. This injury set him back a bit for me. He probally wont win more than 10 games this year.

[PVNICK]

Halladay was it for me. I think Hudson and Oswalt, could but won't without strong finishes. Petitte is living proof about how pitching for a high scoring big market team helps and having Mariano Rivera as your closer. He was real good in 96 (LL - W), 97 and maybe here and there after that. He was top 10 in ERA+ and War 3x each. His best stat is his record 242-139 .635. 3076.2 IP 117 ERA+ is at best a borderline mark.

Hudson was much more dominant, being arguably the ALs best pitcher (or close too it for the inevitable xyz says hi posts) from 2000-04 regularly finishing in or about the top 5 in ERA+ and pitching WAR. The injury hurt him, but the number of decisions is startlingly low vis a vis Pettite when comparing IP (184-99 in 2542.2 IP). The ERA+ is 126 which is in the ballpark but the IP are not.

Oswalt is even higher end but lesser volume. 133 ERA+ 2154 IP 159-93 record LL in W (as did Pettite and Hudson) Pct. (as did Hudson) ERA (ERA+ as well that season) and WHIP.

[Cougar]

I voted Pettitte, Halladay, Hudson, and Oswalt.

The winning percentage and the postseason volume will do it for Pettitte. Halladay is at the end of a HOF run; he'll add some counting numbers. Hudson and Oswalt have great winning percentages; Huddy has a bunch of good seasons, while Oswalt has some very flashy seasons in Houston piching in the Juice Box.

Moyer might have made it with a good run at age 49-50, but it doesn't look good. The first few starts were quite a tease, but the league seems to have caught up with him quickly.

[J W]

I voted very leniently regarding the word "should", and echo Cougar's vote. Hudson needs to get to about 210 wins to be even seriously considered. Oswalt needs to get to that 200 win mark too. But even if neither get there, they're both better than a fair number of pitchers in Cooperstown. So, here's to them finishing their careers strongly.

Pettitte will have the PED thing hanging over him. Or, should, as much as other "minor dabblers" will. I have little idea how testifying against Roger Clemens will help/hurt his HOF case, if at all. How the PED debate resolves will determine whether he will get in or not, as I expect voters will see him as enough of a "winner" to eventually merit induction. He is by many statistics a better pitcher than Jack Morris, or at least comparable, and Morris has been on the verge of breaking through for some time now.

My opinion, Halladay is the only pitcher from this group that WILL go to Cooperstown barring (a) a PR catastrophe or (b) shut down of the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. He could retire right now and never pitch again and he will someday be there, even without 200 wins. But he will likely breeze past 200 wins and put a sufficient cap on his career.

[fenrir]

Halladay is the only pitcher from this group that will get in. Pettitte has no shot, IMO. His admitted use of HGH will hurt his chances, especially considering that he's borderline as it is. Kevin Brown was a superior pitcher to Pettitte, and he was ousted on the first ballot with 2.1% support. Why? Because he was linked to performance enhancing drugs. I expect Pettitte to have a similar fate.

[Cowtipper]

Career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

Jamie Moyer: 283-230 W-L, 2596 K
Roy Halladay: 265-140 W-L, 2847 K
Andy Pettitte: 258-147 W-L, 2435 K
Tim Hudson: 236-129 W-L, 2196 K
Derek Lowe: 203-174 W-L, 1900 K
Roy Oswalt: 198-129 W-L, 2353 K
Chris Carpenter: 191-111 W-L, 2175 K
Barry Zito: 187-172 W-L, 2241 K
Kevin Millwood: 184-182 W-L, 2355 K
Freddy Garcia: 180 124 W-L, 1829 K
Bartolo Colon: 180-136 W-L, 1972 K
Ted Lilly: 174-146 W-L, 2183 K
Randy Wolf: 174-158 W-L, 2219 K

[hairmetalfreek]

Halladay was the only one who got my vote, but it would be interesting to see how Moyer fares if he happens to hang on long enough to reach 300 wins. No non-steroid pitcher has ever reached that milestone and been kept out.

[Cowtipper]

Most similar players. First is the most similar players by career totals, second is most similar players through the pitcher's current age.

Jamie Moyer: Dennis Martinez, Jack Quinn*
Andy Pettitte: David Wells, Mike Mussina**
Roy Halladay: Tim Hudson, Mike Mussina
Tim Hudson: CC Sabathia, Kevin Brown
Derek Lowe: Scott Sanderson, Scott Sanderson
Kevin Millwood: Andy Benes, Kevin Appier
Bartolo Colon: Freddy Garcia, David Wells
Roy Oswalt: Don Newcombe, Roy Halladay
Barry Zito: Ron Darling, Darryl Kile
Freddy Garcia: Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon
Ted Lilly: Randy Wolf, Pedro Astacio
Randy Wolf: Ted Lilly, Todd Stottlemyre

*Through age 47
**Through age 38

[PVNICK]

Isn't Moyer off the list after Colorado let him go?

[Cowtipper]

Isn't Moyer off the list after Colorado let him go?

Nah, for the purposes of these exercises, players who play a game during the season, or who played the year before but haven't officially retired, normally stay on the list.