BBF Mets franchise HOF second chance round

[jalbright]

This will be one of three second chance round elections begun this week. What we'll do for the second chance election is a Yes/No vote requiring the greater of 6 or 75% of the votes to induct. The election will be limited to the listed nominees. The elections will only be open for a week--but there will be at least three or four days for discussion and new nominations. You can abstain from an entire ballot (player or contributor), but if you vote in that portion of the ballot, only the guys you expressly vote yes for get credit for a positive vote. The others in that section of the ballot will be considered to have gotten a "no" vote. There will be no limits on how many nominees you can vote for . I will also provide the nomination discussions for the nominees. The deadline for suggesting nominees is twelve hours before the election begins.

In this case, the election will not begin until Saturday, June 9 at 7 am EDT, and will end at 7 am EDT June 16. Nominations close 43 hours before the election begins, or June 7 at noon EDT. Ballots not cast within the stated election time frame will not count.

The Mets have the following already inducted:

Players inducted (14): Edgardo Alfonso, David Cone, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, Dwight Gooden, Keith Hernandez, Howard Johnson, Cleon Jones, Jerry Koosman, Al Leiter, Jon Matlack, Mike Piazza, Tom Seaver, Darryl Strawberry

Contributors inducted (4): Frank Cashen, Gil Hodges, Davey Johnson, Ralph Kiner

The list of nominees at present is:

Players
Gary Carter
John Franco
Jerry Grote
Bud Harrelson
Ed Kranepool
Jesse Orosco
John Stearnes
Mookie Wilson

Contributors
Bob Murphy
Lindsay Nelson
Joan Payson
William Shea

[jalbright]

Here's a debate between myself and jjpm74 over John Franco and the Mets:

It can't be overstated how important Franco was to this franchise. He was the face of the franchise for 15 years and their closer for most of that time.

I replied with this:

He also amassed only 12.8 WAR in those 14 seasons. Pass.

Jjpm74 responded:

1. WAR is not a reliable tool when looking at relievers.
2. You have Cleon Jones on your ballot who managed a whopping 17.3 WAR as an everyday player.

I answered:

WAR isn't perfect, but if he was, oh, a total of 10 WAR higher in the three measures I look at, I could go for him. As it is, he has 5.2 WAR in his best 3 seasons and a best 5 consecutive of 7.2. Jones had 15.3 in his best 3, and 16.6 in his best 5, plus his best season was for a world champion. Even so, he just squeaks in for me, basically because he really put everything into 3 years. Franco was there a long time, but IMHO he wasn't ever overwhelming with the Mets. It's also hard to do enough to get in when those whole 14 years total just over 700 IP. Interestingly, Franco was more valuable with the Reds in all three measures: 13.5 career, 9.0 best three, and 12.6 in best 5 consecutive. Basically, if he could have had a peak for the Mets like he had with the Reds, I think I'd support him.

Jjpm74 posted this:

I'd like to remind everyone voting for this franchise that John Franco was elected to the NY Mets Hall of Fame this year:

Read here for more.

Another article that shows just how important Franco is to his fans.

This guy was the heart and soul of the Mets for 14 years. For a project like this, it is important to not just crunch numbers and think about the role a given player had for a given franchise and the impact he had as a leader and to fans of the team who were the ones who watched and cheered for him every day.

For the stat minded, John Franco is one of the all time saves leaders and put up an impressive career as a closer.

I compared Franco to the weakest reliever I had supported in the project, Kent Tekulve:

[S]ince this is only in terms of performance for the franchise, I consider only the WAR for the franchise. Franco was at his best as a Red, but that's irrelevant to whether he belongs in the Met HOF. I also look at peak performance for the franchise. Let's look at Franco and the weakest reliever I voted for, Kent Tekulve of the Pirates with my main measures:

Franco
career WAR with franchise 12.8
best 3 seasons of WAR with franchise 5.2
best 5 consecutive WAR with franchise 7.2

Tekulve
career WAR with franchise 18.8
best 3 seasons of WAR with franchise 9.7
best 5 consecutive WAR with franchise 11.4

We can also compare Tekulve and Franco with the Pirates and Mets, respectively in terms of how they performed against the relievers who were their peers. Franco, when compared to other relievers (defined as relieving at least 80% of their appearances) of his time, never had a season where he ranked higher than 19th , in 1997. Tekulve had five rankings better than that, a 4th in 1978, a 5th in 1983, a 7th in 1979, a 13th in 1981, and an 18th in 1982.

Another guy who could be considered the weakest reliever I've supported is Roy Face of the Pirates. I'll do the same comparison for him:

Face
career WAR with franchise 16.9
best 3 seasons of WAR with franchise 8.7
best 5 consecutive WAR with franchise 10.3

But when we compare Face to his peer relievers, he was better than Tekulve: 2d overall in 1956 and 1962, 3d overall in 1959, 7th in 1960, 8th in 1958, 14th in 1966 and 1967, and 18th in 1957. It's a close call between Teke and Face, but both comfortably outperformed Franco.

[jalbright]

Here is Brooklyn's case for Ed Kranepool with the Mets, followed by my responses.

[H]ere is my plea for Kranepool - I'm surprised he is getting so little support. He was certainly not a superstar, but he was on the Mets every year in the 60's and 70's. I would never vote a player into Cooperstown based solely on longevity, but it is something special for a player to be on one team so long. And with his 97 career OPS+, he wasn't as bad as he is sometimes remembered (granted, you want more from your IB/OF, but this isn't just about stats). Due to my age i didn't really start following baseball until the late 70's, but I can't think of the first two decades of the Mets without including Kranepool. Through 5the Mets 50 years of existence, he is still their all time leader in hits, games played and at-bats, second in total bases and doubles, and top 10 in runs, triples, RBIs and homeruns. While that might be more indicitive of the anemic Mets offense over the years, someone that high up on all their leaderboards deserves to be in the team hall of fame.

I know what standards I'm looking for, but I don't think it's outlandish for voters to expect several all-star type years or a MVP/Cy Young type year (especially the Cleon Jones model--in a surprise World Series year). Kranepool, was only a one time all-star in 1965--probably the Met representative in a day when every team had at least one all-star. If you look at Kranepool's WAR, he never had a season as good as 2 WAR--and five is all-star level. In fact, his career WAR is 4.4. At that level of play, I don't care how long Kranepool was a Met. I'm not a Met fan, and I'm not going to get a largely emotionally based case--and one of the prices this project exacts is that those types of cases for players are exceedingly tough to succeed with.

After a little discussion with jjpm74, I posted this:

I didn't have time to respond about Kranepool earlier. If we look at the three elements of WAR I use, he can't even come close to Franco:
career: 4.4
top 3: 5.1
top 5 consecutive: 4.7

That's not impressive for an everyday player, to say the least. If we dig into the WAR at bb-ref, we find that he had only four seasons where his total runs above replacement were less than the run differential between average and replacement for a player with as much playing time as he had:

1962 when both figures were 0 ( 6 PA);
1971 when he had three more runs above replacement than average for his playing time;
1975 when he had his highest total above replacement than average for his playing time, a whopping four runs; and
1976 when he had two more runs above replacement than an average player for his playing time.

All other seasons were below average by this measure. In other words, 1) it's being kind to say Kranepool was mediocre, and 2) Kranepool's one notable attribute was his ability to keep a job with the Mets. IMHO, putting Kranepool into the team HOF turns what should be an honor into a gold watch earned solely by a sufficient amount of playing time. I resolutely refuse to go there.

[jalbright]

Here's both sides of the issue on Gary Carter with the Mets, DoubleX taking the "no" side:

It's hard to ignore how amazing Carter was while on the Mets. He was one of the main reasons they were as good as they were from 1985-1988.

I was most torn on Carter. When I first got into baseball as a young kid, the Mets were for a few years my favorite team. It was during that '85-'88 period, perhaps the one and only time the Mets were able to eclipse the Yankees in popularity in New York. So given their success all the hype around them, it was hard for a young kid such as myself to ignore. Carter was actually one of my favorite, if not my favorite player on the team at that time. He team with Keith Hernandez to provide a necessary and valuable veteran presence which pushed the team over the top.

That all being said, I look at the numbers now, and Carter's overall career with the Mets wasn't that impressive. Less than 2500 plate appearances is a pretty small sample size, and the 104 OPS+ isn't that great, especially considering the small sample size.

All told, I'm still torn. He did have two big years with the team and was subjectively, a very important piece of the puzzle, but the whole of his career with the team isn't that impressive.

jjpm74 replied with:

One intangible about Carter is that beyond the offensive numbers, he was also a smart catcher who, along with Mel Stottlemyre, might deserve some credit for how well that pitching staff was. Gooden, Fernandez and Darling were all solid pitchers with or without a good catcher, but the Mets also saw pitchers like Aguilera and Leach enjoy a great deal of success during that period.

I added this thought:

I know what standards I'm looking for, but I don't think it's outlandish for voters to expect several all-star type years or a MVP/Cy Young type year (especially the Cleon Jones model--in a surprise World Series year). Carter was a four time all-star with the Mets. Now, that arguably has something to do with 1) his reputation, and 2) his competition in the NL for a catching slot. Even so, he was a 4 time all-star.

[jalbright]

Here's a case by jjpm to add William Shea as a contributor to the Mets:

From what I know of the Mets, it was William Shea and not Joan Payson who was the catalyst for getting a new team in NY. He was the one who proposed and formed the Continental League in the hopes of bringing a second team back to NY:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_League

[jalbright]

Here’s a case put together by PVNick on behalf of Joan Payson, first owner of the Mets.

I did a little digging such as it is and have cut and pasted the article below. For me growing up in the early to mid 70s she and Stengel were sort of the historical faces of the franchise.

Link ? The First Met's Owner & Woman Pioneeress: Joan Whitney Payson ...
https://www.centerfieldmaz.com/2011/...er...joan.html - Cached


This Blog
Feb 4, 2011The First Met's Owner & Woman Pioneeress: Joan Whitney Payson (1962-1975)
Joan Whitney Payson was born on February 5, 1903 in New York City. She was an heiress to the prominent Whitney Family and received much of the fortune when her father passed on. She would marry Charles Shipman Payson, a lawyer and successful businessman himself. The two lived in a 50 room mansion in Manhasset, NY with their own private art gallery.


She collected art and has many notable works donated in her name at the NY Metropolitan Museum of Art, in the Joan Payson Galleries. She along with her brother also ran Green Tree Stable & Breeding Farms in Saratoga NY & Lexington Kentucky. Their horses won four Belmont Stakes, two Kentucky Derby’s & a Preakness. The family interests also backed finances for Broadway plays & movies, including A Streetcar Named Desire & Gone With the Wind.


Mrs. Payson was a huge baseball fan and became a minority holder in the New York Giants baseball club. Her favorite player was Willie Mays. She voted against the Giants move to California, and sold her shares when they left. She began to work hard to find a replacement team.


In 1962 she became the first woman in America to buy a majority share of a sports team. She was the Mets majority stock holder, team President and was involved in baseball operations from 1962-1975. Unfortunately she trusted M. Donald Grant with many decisions in the later years. Her husband Charles Shipman had no interest in baseball. She loved her team, and was good to her players. They also had a deep respect and admiration for her.


She was always seen in the front row of Shea Stadium rooting on her team, not in an owner’s box. In 1972 she got Willie Mays back to New York to finish his career as a New York Met.


After her passing in 1975, her daughter inherited the team; Lorinda De Roulet.


She knew nothing about baseball either, and along with M. Donald Grant they destroyed the organization for the next few years.


They sold their shares in 1981 when the Wilpon/ Doubleday ownership took over.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_League [/QUOTE]

[dgarza]

John Stearns
Probably the best defensive Met catcher and 2nd in Total WAR only to Piazza.
18.4 WAR

He was a popular Met for a poor team, making the All Star Team 4 years, more than any other Met other than Seaver, at the time.

All-Star Games
1977 *
1979
1980 *
1982 *

Range Factor/9Inn as C
1977 NL 7.05 (1st)

Range Factor/Game as C
1977 NL 6.44 (1st)

In 2003, Stearns became manager of the Binghamton Mets.
In 2005, he was New York's minor league catching coordinator.

[dgarza]

Bob Murphy
Television and radio announcing the New York Mets, from their inception in 1962 until his retirement in 2003.
1994 Frick Award recipient.

[dgarza]

Bud Harrelson
Famous for fighting Pete Rose in the 1973 National League Championship Series, which the Mets ultimately took.

All-Star Games
1970 *
1971 (SS)

Gold Gloves
1971 NL (SS)

One of the best defensive Mets All-Time according to WAR Runs Fielding

                                          
Rk            Player Rfield From   To    G
1        Rey Ordonez     58 1996 2002  916
2    Keith Hernandez     50 1983 1989  880
3    Edgardo Alfonzo     45 1995 2002 1086
[B]4      Bud Harrelson     41 1965 1977 1322[/B]
5      Robin Ventura     38 1999 2001  444
6     Bernard Gilkey     38 1996 1998  380

Defensive WAR
1971 NL 3.0 (1st)

Putouts as SS
1970 NL 305 (1st)

Total Zone Runs as SS
1971 NL 17 (1st)

Range Factor/9Inn as SS
1967 NL 5.28 (1st)
1974 NL 5.72 (1st)

Range Factor/Game as SS
1974 NL 5.37 (1st)

Harrelson was a Mets coach in 1982 and then again starting in 1985.
Also managed the Mets for a short time.

                                                               
Rk   Year Age            Tm          Lg   G   W   L W-L% Finish
1    1990  46 New York Mets NL 2nd of 2 120  71  49 .592      2
2    1991  47 New York Mets NL 1st of 2 154  74  80 .481      5
                                2 years 274 145 129 .529    3.5

[dgarza]

Bobby Valentine

Last election, he received some votes because I assume he was eligible in 2011.

But is he no longer eligible?

[jjpm74]

Bobby Valentine

Last election, he received some votes because I assume he was eligible in 2011.

But is he no longer eligible?

Given the fact that Ozzie Guillen is being voted on as a White Sox contributor, even though he is the current manager of the Marlins, I don't see why he wouldn't be eligible.

[jalbright]

We're inside of a day left for nominations (until noon EDT Thursday)

[jalbright]

Bobby Valentine

Last election, he received some votes because I assume he was eligible in 2011.

But is he no longer eligible?

Given the fact that Ozzie Guillen is being voted on as a White Sox contributor, even though he is the current manager of the Marlins, I don't see why he wouldn't be eligible.

I erred with Guillen, who had been listed for a long time and the election had begun and votes cast by others before my mistake was pointed out to me. In this case, I'm aware of the issue in advance, and I'm not going to repeat the mistake in the name of "consistency". The bottom line is, Valentine has to wait for the current actives election.

[dgarza]

Mookie Wilson
Mookie received the most votes last election.

.276/.318/.394
100 OPS+
19.0 WAR

2nd most Mets Stolen Bases

                                    
Rk              Player  SB    G From
1           Jose Reyes 370 1050 2003
[B]2        Mookie Wilson 281 1116 1980[/B]
3       Howard Johnson 202 1154 1985
4    Darryl Strawberry 191 1109 1983
5         David Wright 156 1158 2004

During Game 6 of the 1986 World Series, Wilson avoided being hit by a wild pitch, allowing the tying run to score in the bottom of the 10th. His ground ball later in the same at bat went through the legs of Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner, allowing the winning run to score. The play is often known as the "Buckner play," and blamed on the first baseman, but Wilson's smart at-bat, speed and determination also affected the course of events. The Mets went on to win that 1986 World Series.

Wilson was inducted into the New York Mets Hall of Fame in 1996.

After his playing career ended, Mookie Wilson returned to the New York Mets as the team's first base coach from 1996 to 2002. In 2003 and 2004, he was manager of the minor league Kingsport Mets, and in 2005, he became manager of the Brooklyn Cyclones. He was back with the Mets as a first base coach in 2011.

[jjpm74]

I erred with Guillen, who had been listed for a long time and the election had begun and votes cast by others before my mistake was pointed out to me. In this case, I'm aware of the issue in advance, and I'm not going to repeat the mistake in the name of "consistency". The bottom line is, Valentine has to wait for the current actives election.

Davey Johnson, who was also active and managing the Nationals at the time was not only voted on as a Mets manager, but was voted into the Mets HOF in this project. There are several others as well who slipped through the cracks. It seems silly to exclude Valentine in this one case since you planned on running an actives election anyway.