No announcement yet.

The "Younger Generation" of starting pitchers: 2012 edition

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • The "Younger Generation" of starting pitchers: 2012 edition

    Which of the "younger generation" of players do you think should make it to the Hall of Fame one day? Here are the criteria I use to determine who belongs on this poll:

    50+ wins or 40+ wins with ERA+ > 100
    Is now 29 years of age or younger
    .500 WP or better.

    Last year when I ran this poll, there were 22 active pitchers who fit the above criteria. This year, there are 24. Here are the ages, records and ERAs of each:

    Justin Verlander, 29, 112-61 W-L, 3.48 ERA
    Felix Hernandez, 26, 89-71 W-L, 3.25 ERA
    Ervin Santana, 29, 89-74 W-L, 4.28 ERA
    Jered Weaver, 29, 88-48 W-L, 3.27 ERA
    Zach Greinke, 28, 82-75 W-L, 3.80 ERA
    Cole Hamels, 28, 82-56 W-L, 3.36 ERA
    Jon Lester, 28, 79-38 W-L, 3.62 ERA
    Matt Cain, 27, 75-75 W-L, 3.31 ERA
    Chad Billingsley, 27, 72-56 W-L, 3.70 ERA
    Tim Lincecum, 28, 71-47 W-L, 3.13 ERA
    Ricky Nolasco, 29, 70-56 W-L, 4.49 ERA
    Ubaldo Jimenez, 28, 65-53 W-L, 3.88 ERA
    Gavin Floyd, 29, 62-60 W-L, 4.55 ERA
    Yovani Gallardo, 26, 57-38 W-L, 3.67 ERA
    Josh Johnson, 28, 51-26 W-L, 3.13 ERA
    Clayton Kershaw, 24, 51-31 W-L, 2.84 ERA
    Jair Jurrjens, 26, 50-35 W-L, 3.53 ERA
    David Price, 26, 48-29 W-L, 3.27 ERA
    Ricky Romero, 27, 48-30 W-L, 3.64 ERA
    Johnny Cueto, 26, 46-40 W-L, 3.70 ERA
    Gio Gonzalez, 26, 45-34 W-L, 3.75 ERA
    Trevor Cahill, 24, 43-40 W-L, 3.86 ERA
    Anibal Sanchez, 28, 42-41 W-L, 3.61 ERA
    Max Scherzer, 27, 41-38 W-L, 4.07 ERA
    Clay Buchholz, 27, 40-26 W-L, 4.10 ERA

    Some guys who didn't make the list include Edwin Jackson, John Danks, Matt Garza and Mike Pelfrey.

    New players to the list:

    Matt Cain
    Zach Greinke
    Clayton Kershaw
    David Price
    Ricky Romero
    Johnny Cueto
    Gio Gonzalez
    Trevor Cahill
    Anibal Sanchez
    Max Scherzer
    Clay Buchholz

    Players who dropped off the list from last year:

    Scott Baker
    Rich Harden
    Scott Kazmir
    Francisco Liriano
    Shaun Marcum
    James Shields
    Adam Wainwright
    Dontrelle Willis

    Percentages from last year:

    Tim Lincecum: 66.67%
    Justin Verlander: 58.33%
    Felix Hernandez: 50.00%
    Josh Johnson: 25.00%
    Yovani Gallardo: 8.33%
    Ubaldo Jimenez: 8.33%
    Jair Jurrjens: 8.33%
    Jon Lester: 8.33%
    Shaun Marcum: 8.33%
    James Shields: 8.33%
    Jered Weaver: 8.33%
    Everone else: 0.00%

    The question to ask for this thread isn't easy to come up with, because they players involved are so young and what is required is a lot of speculation. However, I will ask the following: which of these guys - based on your own projections and feelings about the player - should make the Hall of Fame when they retire? Which ones are on Hall of Fame-type paths?
    Justin Verlander
    Felix Hernandez
    Ervin Santana
    Jered Weaver
    Zach Greinke
    Cole Hamels
    Jon Lester
    Matt Cain
    Chad Billingsley
    Tim Lincecum
    Ricky Nolasco
    Gavin Floyd
    Yovani Gallardo
    Josh Johnson
    Clayton Kershaw
    Jair Jurrjens
    David Price
    Ricky Romero
    Johnny Cueto
    Gio Gonzalez
    Trevor Cahill
    Anibal Sanchez
    Max Scherzer
    Clay Buchholz
    None of the above

  • #2
    As of right now, none of these players would be in the HOF if their careers ended tomorrow. I voted on the arbitrary "potential".

    I picked these 4 as being on the way:

    Justin Verlander--Coming off an all time great season and showing that he is a premiere pitcher in baseball.

    Felix Hernandez--Reminds me of Pedro Martinez when he was young. At 26 years old, he's already one of the best in baseball.

    Jered Weaver--A lights out pitcher who has shown that he is a big game type pitcher who belings at the beginning of the rotation.

    David Price--One of the most talented pitchers I have seen in decades. Whether or not he has the brain to go with that talent remains to be seen.

    Not voting for:

    Tim Lincecum--I voted for him last year. What worries me about him is that at 28 he is already showing signs of decline.
    Last edited by jjpm74; 06-06-2012, 05:27 AM.


    • #3
      I went with Verlander and Price. Lincecum has fallen off and Hernandez needs to get out of Seattle.


      • #4
        Career projections. Lots of people on pace for relatively high strikeout totals.

        Justin Verlander: 246-120 W-L, 2974 K
        David Price: 200-103 W-L, 2315 K
        Felix Hernandez: 197-175 W-L, 3285 K
        Jered Weaver: 196-107 W-L, 2486 K
        Clayton Kershaw: 196-108 W-L, 2915 K
        Jon Lester: 194-110 W-L, 2429 K
        Cole Hamels: 194-128 W-L, 2776 K
        Matt Cain: 190-153 W-L, 2702 K
        Zach Greinke: 189-151 W-L, 2730 K
        Gio Gonzalez: 187-111 W-L, 2287 K
        Yovani Gallardo: 180-121 W-L, 2550 K
        Trevor Cahill: 177-148 W-L, 1657 K
        Ervin Santana: 175-165 W-L, 2271 K
        Ricky Romero: 174-94 W-L, 1970 K
        Tim Lincecum: 166-143 W-L, 2877 K
        Ricky Nolasco: 164-129 W-L, 1849 K
        Chad Billingsley: 160-145 W-L, 2313 K
        Johnny Cueto: 150-97 W-L, 1704 K
        Max Scherzer: 150-123 W-L, 2231 K
        Clay Buchholz: 149-69 W-L, 1234 K
        Gavin Floyd: 139-158 W-L, 1945 K
        Anibal Sanchez: 120-124 W-L, 2024 K
        Josh Johnson: 113-70 W-L, 1825 K
        Jair Jurrjens: 112-84 W-L, 1091 K


        • #5
          How do you only have Felix Hernandez with 197 wins? He's already got 89 wins and he's only 26.
          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis


          • #6
            Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
            How do you only have Felix Hernandez with 197 wins? He's already got 89 wins and he's only 26.
            Bill James' Favorite Toy.


            • #7
              I think four guys above are off to that kind of start... you know... a HOF pace. I think Verlander is the best bet and my only vote I feel real good about in the year 2012

              We might see one of the above guys make it. Hernandez needs to be on another team to make it. If I thought he was leaving anytime soon, I would have voted for five

              Hamels, the Freak, and Kershaw are the other three I voted for. And that was just on their early pace.

              Half those guys aren't famous enough, really.
              Your Second Base Coach
              Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.


              • #8
                Most similar players. First is the most similar players by career totals, second is most similar players through the pitcher's current age.

                Justin Verlander: Dan Haren, Mike Mussina
                Felix Hernandez: Brandon Webb, Dennis Eckersley
                Ervin Santana: Orlando Hernandez, Livan Hernandez
                Jered Weaver: Cole Hamels, Matt Morris
                Zach Greinke: Ben McDonald, Andy Benes
                Cole Hamels: Jered Weaver, John Smiley
                Jon Lester: Cole Hamels, Tim Hudson
                Matt Cain: Pascual Perez, John Smoltz
                Chad Billingsley: Steve Busby, Ray Culp
                Tim Lincecum: Adam Wainwright, Doug Drabek
                Ricky Nolasco: Scott Baker, Gavin Floyd
                Gavin Floyd: Chris Capuano, Jason Schmidt
                Yovani Gallardo: Shaun Marcum, Jair Jurrjens
                Josh Johnson: Clayton Kershaw, David Cone
                Clayton Kershaw: Josh Johnson, Vida Blue
                Jair Jurrjens: Carmen Hill, Bob Welch
                David Price: Ricky Romero, Jon Lester
                Ricky Romero: David Price, Pete Richert
                Johnny Cueto: Anibal Sanchez, Ben McDonald
                Gio Gonzalez: Chris Nabholz, Randy Wolf
                Trevor Cahill: Max Scherzer, Alex Fernandez
                Anibal Sanchez: Johnny Cueto, AJ Burnett
                Max Scherzer: Trevor Cahill, Dustin Hermanson
                Clay Buchholz: Ian Kennedy, Ian Kennedy


                • #9
                  I voted for Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. I would have voted for King Felix but like you all have said, he needs out of Seattle. I really wanted to vote for Tim Lincecum but hes having such an awful year this year.

                  Looking at the list again, I wish i had voted for David Price, lots of wins, lots of strikeouts.


                  • #10
                    I voted for Verlander, and almost voted for Hamels, Cain and Weaver.

                    I also forgot to vote for Kershaw, if you want to count another vote for him.

                    Lincecum would've had my vote at this time last year.


                    Ad Widget