Will Mike Piazza get into the HOF on the first ballot?

[fenrir]

I'm not asking whether he should get in, but rather will he get in first ballot? I think it's possible Piazza may end up getting the shaft like Bagwell. There's really no evidence he's done steroids, outside of some flimsy allegations made by Jeff Pearlman. Do you believe that is enough that it may cost him getting into the HOF on the first ballot?

[willshad]

Bagwell didn't get inducted partially because his numbers do not stand out for his position. I don't think it was all because of steroid suspicions. Someone who is on the edge can easily reject him because he did not his 500 home runs, did not get 1600 RBI, did not bat .300. Piazza put up almost identical numbers as Bagwell, but did so from the catcher's spot. There is no way to reject him based on the numbers.

[Los Bravos]

It's not just Pearlman. Murray Chass has been on that same thing for a while too. I know he's generally derided around here but I'm not inclined to dismiss his observations out of hand just because he's adopted a crank persona of late.

Having said that, Piazza is a guy I've always thought was more celebrated among a lot of fans and writers in a way that Jeff never really was (for a number of reasons.) That might give him an edge and overcome the attitude that has caused Bagwell to have to wait.

As an aside, let me state, again, that I think Bagwell is well on the road to election and a lot of the angst over him isn't really warranted. It sucks that he's had to wait but it sucked that Phil Niekro and Don Sutton (and Barry Larkin and any of a couple of dozen other people we could name) had to wait, as well.

[ol' aches and pains]

What evidence is there that Piazza juiced, other than the dreaded back acne? I have my share of suspicion too, but absent a "confession" or a positive test, I don't see how you can keep him out.

[fenrir]

What evidence is there that Piazza juiced, other than the dreaded back acne? I have my share of suspicion too, but absent a "confession" or a positive test, I don't see how you can keep him out.

Well, that's my point. There's absolutely no proof that Jeff Bagwell did steroids, but there are still a decent amount of voters who didn't vote for him because they believed he used steroids. Pedro Gomez is one of them, and there were others. I believe the same thing may end up happening to Piazza. Of-course, a confesson or positive test doesn't have to be the only evidence that keeps a player out. If there was a person that came out and said they saw Bagwell or Piazza use steroids, or personally injected them with steroids, then I could understand not voting for them based on that. But people like Gomez not voting for Bagwell just because of his size or numbers is flat out wrong in my opinion.

[Cap78]

I believe in innocent until proven guilty...the fact that some writers want to throw around allegations and voters will use that against them is flatly wrong...Piazza is, in my opinion, the best hitting catcher I have ever seen...the fact that he did what he did at the catcher position makes it even more amazing...I voted for him to go in first ballot and I hope he does, and I would find it even funnier if he got in before Clemens as a way to get back at him

[GiambiJuice]

I have little doubt that Piazza used steroids, as did the majority of sluggers from that era. However, it is unfair to keep him out without any proof of usage. Even if I knew 100% that he used I would still elect him on the first ballot.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Bagwell didn't get inducted partially because his numbers do not stand out for his position. I don't think it was all because of steroid suspicions. Someone who is on the edge can easily reject him because he did not his 500 home runs, did not get 1600 RBI, did not bat .300. Piazza put up almost identical numbers as Bagwell, but did so from the catcher's spot. There is no way to reject him based on the numbers.

Several Hall of Fame voters have stated Bagwell's career is easily Hall of Fame worthy but PED suspicions are being used against Bagwell.

Tracy Ringsbry- "A generation ago, Jeff Bagwell would have been a first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee...Bagwell, however, has an extra burden. He was a part of the Steroid Era, and in his case, there is a faction that has taken the guilty-until-proven-innocent approach toward Bagwell.

Their evidence? He bulked up considerably in his career and was a prodigious home run hitter, despite spending his first nine big-league seasons calling the spacious Astrodome, a pitcher’s paradise, home. He has not been linked to use of performance-enhancing drugs, except by some members of the media who speak of their suspicions, not their knowledge, and the fact that several known PED users played with the Astros...Bagwell and his peers, however, are held to a stricter standard, one where suspicions with no factual basis, only a writer’s assumption, is enough to try and bar him from the honor his career deserves."

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Jeff-Bagwell-Hall-of-Fame-Houston-Astros-steroids-123111

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Several other voters have stated publically that suspicions of PED use ar the reason they didn't vote for Bagwell.

Phillip Hersh- "Happy to omit Mark McGwire for the sixth straight year and Rafael Palmeiro for the second; I never will pick either doper. And I'm still too suspicious about Jeff Bagwell to include him."

Paul Sullivan- "Gone with a whisk of the Sharpie were Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire and a few other unindicted but suspected contributors to the PED mess, players whose numbers otherwise would merit serious consideration. Sorry, Jeff Bagwell, but you shrunk more than most."

Scot Gregor-"Suspicions of using “performance enhancing drugs” weigh heavily on my decision to leave off productive players such as Bagwell, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez."

http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012-articles/january/update-three-more-suspected-plagiarists-slither-out-from-under-their-rocks.html

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Dan Shaughnessy- "Like a lot of players who will follow him to the ballot, he was a guy who made you wonder."

Bob Brookover- "Bagwell, meanwhile, never tested positive and his name did not show up on the Mitchell Report or in any of Canseco's books. Still, there are people out there who suspected he used steroids, a theory you could offer simply by looking at his cartoonish forearms. Add the fact that he played with admitted steroid users Ken Caminiti and Jason Grimsley and there's at least reason to "suspect" that Bagwell may have used performance-enhancing drugs. I don't know if Bagwell did or did not. I do know I'm not ready to give him the benefit of the doubt right now simply because of the era in which he played the game. Mark McGwire appears on this year's ballot for the fifth time and so far I have not voted for him. I'm not sure if I ever will, but I'm not willing to say never in his case."

Terence Moore- "Then you have the rumored steroid guys on the ballot such as Bret Boone, Benito Santiago, Kevin Brown, Raul Mondesi and Jeff Bagwell. In contrast to McGwire and Palmeiro, none among that group was caught or confessed regarding steroids. But here's the thing: Guilt by association -- as in, they played during the Steroid Era, and they all had puffed-up bodies, statistical jumps out of nowhere or a combination of both that made you wonder if it was coincidence or needles."

Dan Graziano- "I don't know for sure that Bagwell took steroids or any other performance-enhancing drugs to help him attain his Hall of Fame-caliber numbers. I don't have evidence, like we do against Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. But I'm suspicious. And this year, that suspicion was enough to make me send back my ballot without the Bagwell box checked. I'd rather withhold the vote based on suspicion than vote the guy in only to find out later that he cheated and I shouldn't have."

Jeff Pearlman -"Statistically, Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer. And, on a personal note, he was always an approachable and nice guy. But, dammit, thanks to baseball’s meekness (for lack of a better word), Hall of Fame voters (I’m not one, for the record) have the right to suspect anyone and everyone from the past era. They have the right to view muscles suspiciously; to question a guy putting up six-straight 100-plus RBI seasons in the heat of PED Madness; to wonder why—when, oh, 75 percent of players were using–one extremely succesful, extemely large, extremely muscular man wouldn’t.

Jeff Jacobs- "Based on numbers alone, Bagwell deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. That part is easy. He hit .297 with 449 homers, eight 100-RBI seasons and had a .948 OPS as well as a Gold Glove and an MVP Award. Yet because of the sins of his baseball generation, fair or not, Bagwell finds himself in an uncomfortable position."

http://platoonadvantage.com/2011-articles/december/update-plagiarists-who-might-write-among-us.html

[redban]

Yes, I think Piazza will get in first ballot. His name isn't typically associated with steroids like McGwire and Palmerio.

As for him and Bagwell, there are several differences. Piazza was a bigger star, playing for NY, and the media liked him.

Bagwell in his prime was overshadowed by many players because 1B was a stacked position. In the 1990s, people saw McGwire as the top 1b. With catcher, it always Piazza as #1.
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[Cap78]

I find it hypocritical that one generation of players is using performance enhancement against a player who has not been found guilty of anything when that same generation damn well knows they weren't exactly playing clean either

[Bigfoot 88]

I agree the Bagwell shaft may be used on him, so I voted no. However I expect it to be very close, unlike Bagwell.

[Los Bravos]

What evidence is there that Piazza juiced, other than the dreaded back acne? I have my share of suspicion too, but absent a "confession" or a positive test, I don't see how you can keep him out.

In the end, that's probably my position, too.

[willshad]

I actually think it will help him that he never had a really ridiculous season like 50 home runs, .700 slugging % or 200 OPS+. Those kind of numbers are the sure sign of a juicer. I think Piazza was good enough to have a season like that if he had managed to put it all together for a full year, but now I'm glad it didn't happen. Bagwell's 1994 season is just ridiculous, better than any season a non juicer has had in a long long time.

[fenrir]

I actually think it will help him that he never had a really ridiculous season like 50 home runs, .700 slugging % or 200 OPS+. Those kind of numbers are the sure sign of a juicer. I think Piazza was good enough to have a season like that if he had managed to put it all together for a full year, but now I'm glad it didn't happen. Bagwell's 1994 season is just ridiculous, better than any season a non juicer has had in a long long time.

If Bagwell didn't get injured in 1994, and if the strike didn't happen, I highly doubt he would have kept a slugging% over .700 and an OPS+ over 200 throughout the whole season. A few players had a slugging% over .700 that year. I know Thomas was one, and I believe Belle was another.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Bagwell's 1994 season is no more ridiculous than George Brett's 1980 season. Brett never came close to matching his 1980 season again.

Brett 1980 (age 27)
.390/.464/.664, 203 OPS+, 9.3 WAR (515 PA)

Bagwell 1998 (age 26)
.368/.451/.750, 213 OPS+, 7.9 WAR (479 PA)