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Sports Illustrated's projected all-time home run list

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  • Sports Illustrated's projected all-time home run list

    I received the following message from a buddy of mine in an email yesterday. I wondered if you all could share your opinions not just on SI's list, but also on the comments my buddy makes throughout the message.

    The new Sports Illustrated has a projection of the all-time home run list in 2020 (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system, which uses comparisons to similar players throughout history, weighing factors such as statistics, age and major league service time, defensive position and body type. Projections are adjusted to reflect the fact that it is easier to hit home runs today, and also based on a player's 2006 performance to date). This is the current (2006) top 10:

    1) Aaron - 755
    2) Ruth - 714
    3) Bonds - 713
    4) Mays - 660
    5) Sosa - 588
    6) Robinson - 586
    7) McGwire - 583
    8) Killebrew - 573
    9) Palmeiro - 569
    10) Jackson - 563

    Now, keep in mind, 2020 is 13 1/2 years from now. It isn't clear if they're saying the following list is following the 2020 season, or going into it, but I'm skeptical of some of the names/numbers on this list:

    1) Bonds - 765
    2) Aaron - 755
    3) Ruth - 714
    4) Alex Rodriguez - 678
    5) Mays - 660
    6) Adam Dunn - 638
    7) Ken Griffey, Jr. - 637
    8) Albert Pujols - 620
    9) Manny Ramirez - 589
    10) Sosa - 588

    Let's break this down: Behind Bonds, Griffey is the next highest active leader in home runs with 539. He's 37 years old, has a history of injuries, and they say he's going to hit another 98 homeruns? Including his three this year, Griffey has hit a combined 101 home runs in the past SIX seasons!!!! There's no WAY he's going to hit 98 more homeruns before he retires -- NO WAY. You say, "But he hit 35 last year alone." I still say no way. Maybe he gets to 600 -- maybe.

    Next two on the active list are Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell (he's active?) and Jim Thome, none of whom are deemed good enough to crack the all-time top 10 in 2020. I'll buy that -- everybody but Thome are older than Griffey. Thome has a year on him, but is currently 93 homeruns behind him -- obviously no way he makes up that difference in one year. But he has 446 and is the AL leader this year -- you're saying he's not going to get another 142 before he retires? He's averaged 28 homeruns each year -- that's 5 more years. He doesn't turn 36 until August, and will most likely stay in the AL for the rest of his career -- it's a done deal he will pass Sosa.

    Next is ManRam -- stands at 442 right now. They have him at 589 total -- he's about to turn 34, has averaged 32 homeruns/year for his career, which is just above what he's on pace to get this year. That means he needs a little less than five years to get to 589 -- actually, I think that's about right for him.

    A-Rod: 438 total. Lowest total for a full season was 23 homeruns, average of 34 per year. Turns 31 this year. At his average (which, by the way, he has surpassed every year for the past EIGHT seasons), would need seven full seasons to get to their projection of 678. That means he would ONLY be 38 when he reaches 678 -- you're telling me he's not playing past age 38?! A-Rod gets to 700, easy.

    Piazza's next at 401 -- older than Griffey, no chance to even get to 450. Delgado's next at 382 -- he's interesting. About to turn 34. Has averaged 29 homers, and has 13 already this year. Hasn't hit less than 30 since 1996. Getting 206 more homers in seven years is a longshot, though, unless he goes back to the AL. Next four are Kent (337), Edmonds (336), Chipper Jones (334) and Giambi (325) -- all are either old, former 'roiders or way too far down the list to challenge Sosa. Next is (stifled laugh) Luis Gonzales (321) - 'nough said. Vinny Castilla (316) -- he's with the Padres?! Anyway, old and way too far down the list.

    Now comes the most interesting guy -- Vlad Guerrero (315). Why has he dropped off the radar so fast? He's averaged 32 homers for his career, and has hit less than 30 only once since 1998. He just turned 30 this year. To get to Sosa, he only needs about 8.5 years -- like A-Rod, you're telling me he's not playing past 38-39? I think he makes the top 10 -- he already has 10 this year.

    Another guy who's dropped off the radar for some reason -- Andruw Jones (310). Averaged 28 homers/season and he just turned 29. Has hit less than that average once since 1998. His position is a little tougher since he's an NL guy (and a centerfielder, to boot) -- he would need 10 seasons to get to Sosa. I say 550, tops.

    Shaun Green (306), Ruben Sierra (306 -- my god, he's still playing?), Jeromy Burnitz (305), Moises Alou (304), Steve Finley (298), Reggie Sanders (296), Tim Salmon (295), Bernie Williams (277), Todd Helton (273), Ryan Klesko (272), Pudge Rodriguez (266), Craig Biggio (264), Javy Lopez (254), Brian Giles (250), Richie Sexson (243), Scott Rolen (235), Troy Glaus (231), Jose Valentin (229), Garrett Anderson (228) -- all a big NO for obvious reasons. Miguel Tejada (228) is about to turn 30 and has only averaged 25 a year, so he needs nine good years just to get to 500. Next is Tony Clark (224 -- Huge NO) and we finally get to...

    Albert Pujols (220) -- Turned 26 this year. Has averaged -- my god, is this right?! -- 37 home runs his first six seasons (equal to his FIRST year total). That means he can get to Sosa by the time he's 36. And they're telling us that he's ONLY going to get to 620?!!!! I'm not going to be so bold as I was with A-Rod, but I'm saying at least 650 -- gotta be that high.

    But what about the shocker of the top ten -- Adam Freaking Dunn (171). He's older than Pujols (okay, just by a couple of months, but still), has 49 (!) less home runs than Pujols, and has averaged just 29 homers a season. How in H-E-double hockey sticks can they say that he will end up with more homeruns than Pujols? (and not just a little, but 18 more) There is no freaking way Adam Freaking (and, yes, that is his official middle name now) Dunn will end up with 638 homers -- to reach that goal, he would need to meet his average for the next SIXTEEN seasons!!!!!!! Sure, that "only" makes him 42, but I can envision no possible scenario that allows that to happen.

    What do you think?

  • #2
    Adam Dunn MIGHT hit 550, but I don't think he'll even reach 500, so I don't know where that 600+ came from.

    Comment


    • #3
      My take is that this plus some other projections promulgated on these pages plus Bill James' efforts in that regard all show how hard it is to make reasonable projections of what players will do in the future.

      Jim Albright
      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

      Comment


      • #4
        I dont think Bonds will break Aaron, but Pujols and A-Rod will.

        Comment


        • #5
          Yeah I have no idea where these numbers came from. The only two that I think will come close to their projections are ARod and Pulojs, and they may get more. I'm still confused about how Adam Dunn is projected to get more homers than Pulojs. Maybe they think Pulojs will get alot of intentional walks for his career.

          Comment


          • #6
            When doing homerun projections it's important to look at HR/AB ratio. So lets examine

            Manny Ramirez: 435 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 14.08 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 154 home runs to reach the 589 number. At his current rate that is another 2168 AB's or about 4 full seasons averaging 542 AB's per season. He just turns 34 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 37 proving he stays healthy.

            Albert Pujols: 201 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 14.70 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 419 home runs to reach the 620 number. At his current rate that is another 6159 AB's or about 11 full seasons averaging 560 AB's per season. He's just 26 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 36 providing he stays healthy.

            Ken Griffey Jr: 536 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 14.68 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 101 home runs to reach the 637 number. At his current rate that is another 1483 AB's or about 3 full seasons averaging 494 AB's per season. He's just 36 so he should reach that number by the age of 38 providing he is able to stays somewhat healthy.

            Adam Dunn: 158 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 14.37 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 480 home runs to reach the 638 number. At his current rate that is another 6898 AB's or about 13 full seasons averaging 531 AB's per season. He's just 26 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 38 providing he stay healthy.

            Alex Rodriguez: 429 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 14.44 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 249 home runs to reach the 678 number. At his current rate that is another 3596 AB's or about 7 full seasons averaging 514 AB's per season. He just turns 31 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 37 providing he stays healthy.

            Barry Bonds: 708 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 12.91 AB's during the course of his career. Need another 57 home runs to reach the 765 number. At his current rate that is another 736 AB's or about 2 partial seasons averaging 368 AB's per season. He turns 42 this season so he could reach that number by the age of 43 proviuding he stays healthy and plays that long.

            Other canidates worth looking at

            Andruw Jones: 301 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 17.51 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 287 home runs to reach Sosa at 588. At his current rate that is another 5026 AB's or about 10 full seasons averaging 503 AB's per season. He just turned 29 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 38 providing he stays healthy.

            Vladimir Guerrero: 305 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 16.05 AB's during the course of his career. Needs 283 home runs to reach Sosa at 588. At his current rate that is another 4543 AB's or about 9 full seasons averaging 505 AB's per season. He's 30 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 38 providng he stays healthy.

            Jim Thome: 430 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 13.77 AB's during the course of his career. Needs another 158 home runs to reach Sosa at 588. At his current rate that is another 2176 AB's or about 4 full seasons averaging 544 AB's per season. He turns 36 this season so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 39 providing he stays healthy.

            Carlos Delgado: 369 coming into this season has averaged 1 HR every 14.98 AB's during the course of his career. Needs another 219 home runs to reach Sosa at 588. At his current rate that is another 3281 AB's or about 6 full seasons averaging 547 AB's per season. He turns 34 this seasons so he should be able to reach that number by the age of 39 providing he stays healthy.
            My dream ballpark dimensions
            LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
            RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
            Location....San Diego

            Comment


            • #7
              I have that feeling that Griffey may retire after either this or next year. He's too much of an injury risk. Dunn often misses a lot with +100 K's, but gets a home run. Just wait and see for the projected HR leaders to see if it's true (I bought that issue today)

              Comment


              • #8
                Don't forget Adrian Beltre...

                what's he hitting, .204, or something?
                THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                Comment


                • #9
                  Adam Dunn won't hit the projected number, and neither will Ken Griffey Jr. A-rod and Pujols will almost definitely get more than they're projected to though.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Dunn will not get to 500 HRs, or even 400 HRs, unless he can boost his BA. If he doesn't, he won't hit enough HRs to stay in the lineup in his 30s. He's turning out to be a young player with old player's skills, and those guys don't age well. I don't believe that Dunn will be a MLB regular past age 35.

                    I don't believe Griffey, Jr. will get to 600; he'll be injured too much to hit the mark.

                    A-Rod has a good chance to hit his projection, but I think it's going to be harder for him if he stays in the infield. That's what makes him so great, though; his ability to hit like he does and play a key defensive position.

                    Manny won't make it to 589, but he's a great player and a HOFer; he'll keep his BA well over .300.
                    "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                    NL President Ford Frick, 1947

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
                      Dunn will not get to 500 HRs, or even 400 HRs, unless he can boost his BA. If he doesn't, he won't hit enough HRs to stay in the lineup in his 30s. He's turning out to be a young player with old player's skills, and those guys don't age well. I don't believe that Dunn will be a MLB regular past age 35.
                      From what I've read I've heard the exact opposite-that young players with old player's skills tend to age well.

                      And Dunn is still on base a real lot despite his BA, if he can still continue to walk like he has he should last a long time. He is not the 2nd coming of Dave Kingman. He has one big difference from Kingman-he can get on base. People forget about Dunn too, he's actually a fast runner and a pretty good fielding OFer. He does have other skills, other important skills, outside of his HR power.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Horrible

                        I think if you look at the way albert pujols was and still is hitting the ball, i'm not sure if he'll be number 1 but will definitely get 720.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          How do they know a player like Delmon Young will not come up and hit 50 homeruns for 12 years straight which would give him 600? You can not projected anything in baseball past a one year period.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by digglahhh
                            Don't forget Adrian Beltre...

                            what's he hitting, .204, or something?


                            made me laf!

                            Comment

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