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  • #1

    David Price

    David Price is in only his fifth season of Major League Baseball, but it looks like he may be working his way towards a Hall of Fame career. So far, the 26-year-old is 52-30 with a 3.29 ERA in 111 games. He has been an All-Star three years in a row and in 2010, he finished second in the American League in Cy Young voting.

    Last year, he led the league in games started and in 2010, he finished first among pitchers in fielding percentage. This season, he is tied for first in the AL in victories, through July 13. He already has a 19-win season under his belt--accomplishing the feat in 2010--making him one of only nine active pitchers to have had a 19 or greater win season by the time he was 24.

    He has shown flashes of brilliance in the postseason, posting a 1-0 record and a 0.00 ERA in three appearances in the 2008 ALCS and in that year's World Series, he had a 2.70 ERA in 3.1 innings of work.

    Statistically, he is similar to Ricky Romero, Mark Prior, Jair Jurrjens, George Pierce, Mickey Hughes, Hideki Kuroda, Connie Johnson, Vern Olsen, Gio Gonzalez and Tommy Hansen. Through age 25, his eight-most similar comp is Hall of Famer Herb Pennock, per Baseball-Reference. Other notable comps through age 25 include Johan Santana and Josh Beckett.

    Currently, he is ranked #467 on the Fan EloRater, ahead of Wilson Alvarez, Turk Farrell and Jarrod Washburn, but behind Darryl Kyle, Harry Howell and Clay Carroll.

    It's a stretch, but what do you think about David Price? When all is said and done, should he be a Hall of Famer? Does he have Hall of Fame potential?
    24
    Yes
    4.17%
    1
    No
    8.33%
    2
    Maybe
    29.17%
    7
    Not a Hall of Famer, but he has Hall of Fame potential
    58.33%
    14
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I suppose he's young enough so he could rake up alot of career wins so he has a decent chance someday.
    "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

    "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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    • #3
      For someone like him, A too young to tell option would be useful. As he stands now, he is a great pitcher, but many great pitchers become good or average pitchers as they age and do not come close to putting together a HOF career.

      Comment

      • #4
        A 119 ERA+ is nothing special unless you've got a few thousand innings under your belt. He's got to have a lot of dominant seasons to get his ERA+ up some so that he can withstand a decline in his mid 30's and still retire with some good rate stats.

        Way too early to tell yet.

        There have been lots of pitchers who got off to a better start than Price in their first 4 seasons, and never ended up being near HOF-level.
        My top 10 players:

        1. Babe Ruth
        2. Barry Bonds
        3. Ty Cobb
        4. Ted Williams
        5. Willie Mays
        6. Alex Rodriguez
        7. Hank Aaron
        8. Honus Wagner
        9. Lou Gehrig
        10. Mickey Mantle

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        • #5
          Way too early. See Zito, Barry.
          "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

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          • #6
            Top flight pitcher right now. He'll need a long career of posting similar numbers for him to be a HOF'er, though. He is lacking standout seasons, which he'll need.
            Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
            Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
            Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
            Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
            Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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            • #7
              Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
              A 119 ERA+ is nothing special unless you've got a few thousand innings under your belt. He's got to have a lot of dominant seasons to get his ERA+ up some so that he can withstand a decline in his mid 30's and still retire with some good rate stats.

              .
              Right. A future HOFer usually has a much higher peak in his first 5-6 years than Price does now. There are exceptions, of course. if this is the best Price can muster and then a decline phase? Not a chance. If he has a stellar next 5-6 years, we will talk, but what in his stuff or trends indicates that his next 5-6 years will be better than his first 5-6? And we can never assume the kind of 22-25 year longevity needed for a guy like Price to make the HOF, ala Don Sutton.
              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015

              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                Right. A future HOFer usually has a much higher peak in his first 5-6 years than Price does now. There are exceptions, of course. if this is the best Price can muster and then a decline phase? Not a chance. If he has a stellar next 5-6 years, we will talk, but what in his stuff or trends indicates that his next 5-6 years will be better than his first 5-6? And we can never assume the kind of 22-25 year longevity needed for a guy like Price to make the HOF, ala Don Sutton.
                Pitchers don't age the way position players do for a variety of reasons. He's having a Cy Young-type season to date, and he's had a Cy Young-type seaon on 2009 (finishing 2nd). His 2011 season was a function of bad luck; his ERA wasn't bad.

                If Price wins 20 games this year, he helps himself A LOT. If he wins 20 games AND the Cy Young Award, he's on a HOF path. He's got a long way to go, and even if he wins the Cy Young Award and 20 games, he still wouldn't be a HOFer based on peak value, but it's not accurate IMO to suggest that he's not on the path as of now.
                "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                NL President Ford Frick, 1947

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                • #9
                  He is projected to go 200-103 with 2,315 strikeouts, per Bill James' Favorite Toy.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    What was Tim Hudson's projections after his first 4-5 years in the league? I remember him having a .700+ winning percentage and talk back then was that he could be a 300-win pitcher and automatic HOFer. Now he's 36 or 37 and still a far ways off.
                    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ben Grimm View Post
                      What was Tim Hudson's projections after his first 4-5 years in the league? I remember him having a .700+ winning percentage and talk back then was that he could be a 300-win pitcher and automatic HOFer. Now he's 36 or 37 and still a far ways off.
                      That's a good point, but oddly Hudson will probably end up closer to his career projections through his first five years than (I know I would have) expected. Hudson was projected to go 205-98 with 2,057 strikeouts after five years in the big leagues. Right now he is 188-101 with 1,757 strikeouts, meaning both his projected win total and projected strikeout total are within reach.

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                      • #12
                        He's 26 and he's having the best year of his young career. And he hasn't even reached the fabled age-27-super-awesome-season level yet.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Though 2009 and 2012 were excellent seasons, I don't foresee Price becoming a Hall of Famer at this point. I think he is going to go down in history as a "very good" pitcher, not unlike one of his comps through age 27, Jimmy Key.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            In terms of statistical output, Price had one of the best years of his career. He led the league in starts, batters faced, innings pitched and strikeouts, while completing three games and walking only 38 batters in 248.1 innings. Not too shabby, but I think a year like this will be the exception rather than the norm.

                            His most similar comps through age 28 are very telling of how the definition of "mid-level greats" has changed. There are no Hall of Famers on the list, and the retired guys on it fall into the "good-very good" category. But, the active guys - notably the top two names, Johnny Cueto and Jered Weaver - are considered among the best in the game today and have a good shot at going down as some of the best of this generation.

                            That presents a problem for future voters. The 'best' pitchers from this era don't sniff the greatness of the guys of yore. Yet, they rank highly among contemporaries. So, what happens? Do pitchers just stop getting elected to the Hall of Fame in large numbers? Do voters adjust/lower their standards of greatness to reflect the change in the way starting pitchers are used and perform?

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              It was a strange year for Price: he led the league in both strikeouts AND hits allowed. Im wondering if this is as rare a feat as one would imagine. Usually the big strikeout guys give up few hits.

                              It is also strange how eerily similar his lifetime stats are to Johnny Cueto. They are six months apart in age.

                              Price: 86-51 3.21 ERA 1221 IP 1071 H 121 ERA+
                              Cueto: 85-57 3.27 ERA 1208 IP 1074 H 122 ERA+

                              Who will end up with the better career?
                              Last edited by willshad; 10-13-2014, 11:14 PM.

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