Rafael Furcal

[Cowtipper]

Shortstop Rafael Furcal has been in the majors since 2000, and since then he has hit .282 with 1,780 hits, 313 stolen bases and 1,045 runs scored. The 2000 National League Rookie of the Year has been an All-Star three times and has received MVP votes twice, finishing as high as 14th in the balloting.

He has nine 20 stolen bases seasons, three 30 stolen base seasons and two 40 stolen bases, in addition to two 10 triple seasons and four straight 100 run scored seasons--with career highs of 46, 11 and 130, respectively. From 2003 to 2006, he averaged 180 hits, 34 stolen bases and 112 runs scored a year, while batting .289/.354/.433.

Though he has extensive playoff experience, he has not performed particularly well in the postseason--though he has shown signs of excellence. In the 2004 NLDS, for example, he batted .381 with two home runs, four RBI and three stolen bases. In the 2008 NLDS, he batted .333 and in the 2009 NLDS, he hit .500 in 12 at-bats. Overall, he has 59 playoff games under his belt, with 56 hits, 33 runs scored, 13 stolen bases and one World Series ring to his credit.

In 2003, he led the league in triples, stolen base percentage and assists. He has also led league shortstops in putouts in 2005 and putouts and assists in 2006. Among active players, he is ninth in defensive WAR (14.3), 10th in triples (66) and 12th in stolen bases.

He has two Hall of Famers on his Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores list: Phil Rizzuto and Lou Boudreau. He is also similar to Eric Young, Chuck Knoblauch, Frank Crosetti, Greg Gagne, Tom Daly, Granny Hamner, Larry Doyle and Johnny Logan. On his most Similarity Scores through age 33 list, there appear two Hall of Famers: Barry Larkin and Pee Wee Reese.

On the Fan EloRater, he ranks #319, ahead of Eric Davis, Dave Bancroft and Chili Davis, but behind Larry Doyle, Jim Gilliam and Davey Lopes.

Career projections:

2,057 G
8,243 AB
1,350 R
2,312 H
399 2B
87 3B
149 HR
774 RBI
388 SB
819 BB
1,138 K

So, what do you think about Rafael Furcal? When all is said and done, should he be a Hall of Famer? Does he have Hall of Fame potential? Did he have potential at one point in his career?

[ol' aches and pains]

If Omar Vizquel is considered borderline HOF, and on the wrong side of the borderline, where does that leave Rafael Furcal?

[Cougar]

I voted "Maybe"; it's a very weak maybe, however.

He is approaching 2000 hits, he does have very good base stealing stats for the era, he has a good fielding reputation, and he just played SS on a WS winner. If he somehow manages a strong finish to his career, he could begin to look like a plausible candidate.

He's probably missed too much time to injury, though...only one full season since he hit 30.

[PVNICK]

He's not a HOFer but he is really not that far removed from standard SS HOF numbers. Multiple 100 R seasons (topping out at 130), .280+ avg, 97 OPS+ in over 7000 PA, WS ring. But it seems like he is just a guy on his teams rather than a focal point so I don't think he gets the "intangibles" to put him into any sort of a mix.

[Second Base Coach]

The number one thing he did to hurt his HOF chances at shortstop was to move around from team to team. It killed them, really.

The player's outline become fuzzy in both cases, but changing positions does less damage than changing teams, IMHO based on who is in there now and who has been passed over.

Those who support Dave Concepcion and Alan Trammel are fooled into thinking they were better than they were because their outline is sharp. So staying put is a plus and Furcal does not have that benefit. If he would have stayed in Atlanta and scored 100 runs a year, every year, then sure...

[Ben Grimm]

The number one thing he did to hurt his HOF chances at shortstop was to move around from team to team. It killed them, really.

The player's outline become fuzzy in both cases, but changing positions does less damage than changing teams, IMHO based on who is in there now and who has been passed over.

Those who support Dave Concepcion and Alan Trammel are fooled into thinking they were better than they were because their outline is sharp. So staying put is a plus and Furcal does not have that benefit. If he would have stayed in Atlanta and scored 100 runs a year, every year, then sure...

In that sense, it was probably wise for Jimmy Rollins to extend with the Phillies like he did. Lifers on a team can be held to a different standard.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Furcal would not be the worst shortstop in the HOF, but he is too inconsistent, with not a high enough peak, to be a HOFer.

[Cowtipper]

One would like to note that only 18 shortstops have ever reached 2,300 hits, which Furcal is projected to meet by the time his career is over. 10 are in the Hall of Fame, one is on the Hall of Fame ballot (Trammell), two are not on the ballot or in the Hall (Concepcion, Dahlen) and five are active or not yet eligible for the Hall.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Furcal has NO Gold Gloves in an era of slugging shortstops. If he were a perennial Gold Glove winner, he'd be a viable candidate, but he's not. On top of that, he's a disappointment, although part of the disappointment comes from the excitement over his potential as a rookie when he became the first MLB player born in the 1980s, only to find out later that he was three (3) years older than originally stated. If Garciaparra and Tejada aren't going to make the HOF, steroids or not, Furcal isn't either. I haven't done a Keltner List on Furcal, but I doubt that if I do one I would discover some hidden strength that would cause me to change my assessment. Jimmy Rollins, who I wax hot and cold on, is a far, far better candidate. Omar Vizquel is a far, far better candidate.

[Freakshow]

All players in MLB history with 1500+ G at SS, 100+ HR, 300+ SB and a BA >.275:

Rk          Player   BA  HR  SB    PA From   To
1     Honus Wagner .328 101 723 11748 1897 1917
2      Derek Jeter .313 254 347 11754 1995 2012
3     Barry Larkin .295 198 379  9057 1986 2004
4    Rafael Furcal .281 113 314  7200 2000 2012

[Cowtipper]

Furcal has NO Gold Gloves in an era of slugging shortstops. If he were a perennial Gold Glove winner, he'd be a viable candidate, but he's not. On top of that, he's a disappointment, although part of the disappointment comes from the excitement over his potential as a rookie when he became the first MLB player born in the 1980s, only to find out later that he was three (3) years older than originally stated. If Garciaparra and Tejada aren't going to make the HOF, steroids or not, Furcal isn't either. I haven't done a Keltner List on Furcal, but I doubt that if I do one I would discover some hidden strength that would cause me to change my assessment. Jimmy Rollins, who I wax hot and cold on, is a far, far better candidate. Omar Vizquel is a far, far better candidate.

Alan Trammell is a far far better candidate too. Comparing Vizquel to Furcal at this point is comparing apples to oranges, as Furcal hasn't played the career that Vizquel has, lengthwise. That's like saying Roy Halladay is a far better candidate for the Hall of Fame than David Price--of course he is, he's played much longer.

Speaking of which, people are always beating the drum for Trammell's induction, but let's selectively cherry pick some of his career numbers and compare them to Furcal's projected totals:

Trammell: 1,231 R
Furcal: 1,350 R

Trammell: 8,288 AB
Furcal: 8,243 AB

Trammell: 2,365 H
Furcal: 2,312 H

Trammell: 412 2B
Furcal: 399 2B

Trammell: 55 3B
Furcal: 87 3B

Trammell: 185 HR
Furcal: 149 HR

Trammell: 236 SB
Furcal: 388 SB

Trammell: 850 BB
Furcal: 819 BB

Really, in a lot of categories, Furcal's projections are not far off from Trammell's stats.

Now, I'm not saying when all is said and done, Furcal is going to be a Hall of Famer. He has to get to those projections first off. But I also think to just throw any potential he may have aside is also an incorrect route to take.

[Freakshow]

Furcal comps:

Player           WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield   PA From   To   Age
Travis Jackson      42.0  102    139 6680 1922 1936 18-32
Al Dark             39.6   98     34 7833 1946 1960 24-38
Jimmy Rollins       38.7   97     48 8121 2000 2012 21-33
Phil Rizzuto        38.1   93    116 6718 1941 1956 23-38
Rafael Furcal       37.0   96     62 7200 2000 2012 22-34
Dick Groat          33.4   89     48 8179 1952 1967 21-36
Eddie Joost         29.2   99      5 6789 1936 1955 20-39
Jose Valentin       29.2   96     63 6317 1992 2007 22-37

[Buczilla]

This is Furcal's 13th year in the bigs. In that time he became 3 years older and has missed nearly 3 seasons worth of ball due to injuries(not being in the lineup). He will be 35 come October. He has produced hardly anything since the calender turned to June this season. I don't see him having much game left in his stick, nor do I see him hitting on those projections.

[dominik]

no. he is an above average hitting SS (96 OPS+) but not a really good hitter. and his glove is about average too.

he seems to be a good baserunner though but this is not making him a HOFer. he has 37 WAR (mostly due to his position and solid hitting) but this is still about 20 less than he would need to be a HOFer

[Cowtipper]

Furcal didn't play at all in 2013, so his numbers didn't improve (or get any worse). 2,600 hits wouldn't be an impossibility for Furcal if he can regain his health. Would he be a Hall of Famer with 2,600 hits and 400 stolen bases?