I want your opinion, please

[JR Hart]

I’m curious as to where people rate these guys as perspective HOFers. So I’d like to take an informal poll, much simpler than some, but easy to score. I’ll list 20 players , who I think are borderline HOFers, please assign each player a score of 5 through 1. Thank you for participating. Feel free to comment along with your scores.

5-Why is he not in?
4- Has a good case
3- marginal, has some merit
2-comes up short
1-are you kidding me?


Jack Morris
Tony Oliva
Steve Garvey
Dave Concepcion
Lou Whitaker
Norm Cash
Will Clark
David Cone
Ron Guidry
Alan Trammel
Dave Stieb
Dale Murphy
Billy Pierce
Lee Smith
Vida Blue
Jim Wynn
Gil Hodges (player)
Dick Allen
Mel Harder
Charlie Keller

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I gotta hurry and be the first so I know everyone reads mine:

Jack Morris- 3. Too many up and down years revolving around a 3.50 ERA, which is too high given his era. Certainly a workhouse, and leading the 1980s in wins has to count for something. For a long time, he was always the face of his team. If he got in, it would be more of a big name, Phil Rizzuto type of deal.
Tony Oliva-5. Five-tool player in an baseball era against batters and a historical era still adjusting to Latin players.
Steve Garvey-2
Dave Concepcion-4
Lou Whitaker-5
Norm Cash-3. Good offense, but maybe not enough. Defense is also a little lacking according to sabermaterics, but I never saw him play.
Will Clark-3. Good peak, but didn't really sustain a high enough offense, especially as the super-powered 1990s came along.
David Cone-3
Ron Guidry-2
Alan Trammel-5
Dave Stieb-3. Didn't last long enough.
Dale Murphy-3. Overrated defense and peak wasn't dominant enough for long enough.
Billy Pierce- TWO
Lee Smith-5
Vida Blue-1
Jim Wynn-2. Up and down over the years, and a .250 average isn't great even for his era.
Gil Hodges (player)-4. Good fielder regardless of the numbers. His raw offensive numbers do the talking. He was a driving force in Brooklyn's greatest years. End of story.
Dick Allen-5
Mel Harder-1
Charlie Keller-2. Longevity issues.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I have to say Tyrus has this perfect. Although I can see an argument for some but he has reasons why down pat.

[PVNICK]

Jack Morris - 3
Tony Oliva - 5
Steve Garvey - 2
Dave Concepcion - 3
Lou Whitaker - 5
Norm Cash - 3
Will Clark - 4
David Cone - 3
Ron Guidry - 3 (or 2 but 78 and 77-79 were better than many HOFers ever did)
Alan Trammel - 5
Dave Stieb - 3 the percentages number crunchers 80s AL pitcher v. Morris the intangibles "winner"
Dale Murphy - 3 (or 4 close call)
Billy Pierce - 2 but on some days a 4 he might be the Dave Stieb of the 50s
Lee Smith - 1 sorry
Vida Blue - 2 but almost a 1 though I guess you
Jim Wynn - 3 I should say 5 or even 2 ... I did love him in 74 when he got out of the Astrodome and went to the Dodgers even imitating his stance in little league until a friend said it looked stupid
Gil Hodges (player) - 3
Dick Allen - 5 he Oliva, Murphy, Wynn all faded too soon. But in his day between the lines he was as good as any.
Mel Harder - 1 maybe he really should get a 2 or 3
Charlie Keller - 1 he was great, I mean really great, in his time but it was soooo short and included playing in war years

[dgarza]

Personally, anyone with a 3+ would get my vote, given the chance.

Jack Morris - 2
Tony Oliva - 4
Steve Garvey - 3
Dave Concepcion - 1
Lou Whitaker - 3
Norm Cash - 1
Will Clark - 3
David Cone - 2
Ron Guidry - 2
Alan Trammel - 4
Dave Stieb - 1
Dale Murphy - 4
Billy Pierce - 2
Lee Smith - 5
Vida Blue - 1
Jim Wynn - 1
Gil Hodges (player) - 2
Dick Allen - 5
Mel Harder - 1
Charlie Keller - 1

[Jsquared83]

Jack Morris - 2 - Andy Pettitte is more deserving
Tony Oliva - 4 - Elite player during poor offensive era
Steve Garvey - 2 - Decent counting numbers and post season performances but wayyy overrated.
Dave Concepcion - 2 - Overlooked part of the big red machine but glove doesnt make up for lack of offensive production
Lou Whitaker - 4 - Underrated defensively, solid offensive numbers. Should have gotten more of a look from voters
Norm Cash - 2 - Solid career, just falls a bit short
Will Clark - 3 - Great peak, good defense, power outage in the 90s cost him more of a serious look
David Cone - 3 - A little underrated, 200 wins would have gotten him more consideration
Ron Guidry - 3 - Excellent peak, needed to do it a little longer
Alan Trammel - 4 - Great defense, only downside is very unstable offensive production (see 84-85 dropoff), still should be in along with whitaker
Dave Stieb - 1 - better pitcher than his W/L indicates, still more deserving players on this list
Dale Murphy - 3 - HOF peak, great power and MVPs but too steep and quick of a decline
Billy Pierce - 2 - Nice career but not as good as Cone
Lee Smith - 3 - Played forever, never Rivera or even Wagner dominant. Might get in on career value.
Vida Blue - 2 - A notch below Cone and Guidry, 1971 was a heck of a season though
Jim Wynn - 1 - Nice peak, not nearly enough counting stats
Gil Hodges (player) - 3 - Good power, solid defense, but never even the best player on his own team
Dick Allen - 5 - Superb offensive production, one of the most feared hitters of his time.
Mel Harder - 1 - Nice career, not HOF
Charlie Keller - 1 - HOF talent, needed 5 more years

[jjpm74]

Dave Stieb has a stronger case than most people realize. Here is a good argument AG2004 put together for him a few years back:

I decided to do a Keltner List for Dave Stieb.

Leading AL starters in win shares each year for four consecutive years (1982-85) is an impressive feat. True, Stieb's career wasn't that long. However, I didn't really see any long careers among pitchers of Stieb's time. That was certainly strange.

During the middle 1970s, teams were changing from a four-man rotation to a five-man rotation. This would have created a great demand for new starters, and young pitchers would have been rushed into the rotation before their arms were ready. This would result in shorter careers and early peaks.

So I checked to see if their peaks were early. Here's what I found.

*Ron Guidry. Peak from 1977-81, his first five years as a regular.
*Dave Stieb. Peak from 1981-1985. He started in June 1979, so these are full seasons 2-6.
*Bret Saberhagen. Peak from 1985-1989, seasons 2-6.
*Orel Hershiser. Peak from 1985-1989, seasons 2-6.
*Frank Tanana. Peak from 1974-1978, his first five full seasons.
*Fernando Valenzuela. Peak from 1981-1985, his first five full seasons.
*Frank Viola. Peak from 1984-1988, his first five full seasons.
*Dwight Gooden. Peak from 1984-88, his first five years in the bigs.
*Jack Morris. Peak from 1983 to 1987. He's the exception, as these are years 5 to 9 as a full-time starter.

Top pitchers who came along in the first decade after the change tended to have short careers and early peaks. However, top pitchers who came along in the late 80s and early 90s had longer careers, and their peaks tended to come in the middle of their career. They didn't have to be rushed in to the rotation, and their careers were more normal.

When I made the list, I thought of Clemens as a later pitcher, but he made his debut in 1984. His five year-peak was 1986-1990, and those were his first five seasons as a full-time pitcher.

The earliest that Clemens is claimed to have used steroids was 1996. He had 11 win shares in 1993, and 10 win shares in the 144-game 1995 season. After the game on August 1, 1996, Clemens was 4-11 with a 4.36 ERA. For the remainder of the season, he was 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA. In 1997, Clemens had 32 win shares, his best mark ever.

Discount his post-August 1, 1996 performance, and Clemens ends up with about 237 win shares, with a five-year peak of 125, and a total of 85 in his three best seasons. He's another short-career pitcher with an early peak. Stieb's strike-adjusted 210-121-74 isn't quite that good, but his five-year peak and number of All-Star-type seasons easily separates him from the Saberhagen-Hershiser-Morris-Tanana group.

Case to Consider: STIEB, Dave

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No. He received some first-place votes in Cy Young Voting in 1982, but he finished fourth. His contemporaries didn't rate him as the game's best pitcher - but few knew the value of sabermetrics.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

He led his team’s pitchers in win shares each year from 1981 through 1985, as well as in 1988 and 1990.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

He led all starting pitchers in the AL in win shares in 1982, 1983, 1984, and 1985, and all major league pitchers in 1982 and 1984. He was among the top five starters in the majors in win shares each season from 1981 to 1985.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

He was the best pitcher on the team when Toronto won the division by 2 games in 1985.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes, but not for very long; his last season as a full-time starter came at the age of 32.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

He is not the best player outside the BBFHOF.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

By similarity scores: Virgil Trucks, Ken Holtzman, Bob Buhl, Rick Sutcliffe, Tommy Bridges, Kevin Appier, Fernando Valenzuela, Dave Stewart, Frank Viola, and Orel Hershiser. None are in the BBFHOF. However, Stieb’s career ERA+ of 122 is second among these eleven players; Bridges is first at 125.

By career win shares, contemporary SP: Dennis Martinez 233, Jack Morris 225, STIEB 210, Orel Hershiser 210, Bret Saberhagen 193, Frank Viola 187. This isn’t BBFHOF territory, but we really don’t have any starting pitchers from Stieb’s generation in the Hall.

Here, we’re adjusting peak totals to take the 1981 strike season into account. This causes his five-year peak to rise from 113 to 121 win shares.

Best three seasons: Bret Saberhagen 75, STIEB 74, Ron Guidry 72, Frank Viola 71, Orel Hershiser 69, Frank Tanana 69, Fernando Valenzuela 68, Jack Morris 65. Stieb is the second best starter of his generation here.

Best five consecutive seasons: STIEB 121, Orel Hershiser 102, Ron Guidry 101, Frank Viola 100, Bret Saberhagen 98, Frank Tanana 98, Fernando Valenzuela 97, Jack Morris 94. Stieb has, by far, the best peak of any starter in his generation.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Stieb has a black ink total of 17 (119th), a gray ink total of 142 (108th), and a HOF Standards score of 27.0 (172nd). None of these are good.

While Stieb is not in Cooperstown, he is a member of the Hall of Merit.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Toronto’s Exhibition Stadium was a hitter’s park. Also, during his peak, the Blue Jays did not give him much run support, and that lowered his winning percentage.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No. Don Newcombe and Bucky Walters would be better pitchers outside the BBFHOF, but Stieb is close.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

He finished fourth in the 1984 Cy Young voting, but that was the only time he received at least 2% of the total possible vote. He led all AL pitchers in win shares in 1982 and 1984, and was tied with Bret Saberhagen, 24.43 win shares to 24.43 win shares, in 1985. He was second among AL pitchers in 1983, and third in 1981. That makes five Cy Young Award-type seasons in all.

TSN did name him their AL pitcher of the year in 1982. He finished fourth in the Cy Young vote that year, which was the only time he received at least 2% of the total vote.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

He was an All-Star seven times, which is good for a pitcher. He was among the AL’s top five pitchers in six different seasons, which is also a good sign.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

A pitcher like Stieb at his peak could lead his team into the pennant race on a regular basis. The Blue Jays didn’t start contending until 1983, but they were one of the two expansion clubs of 1977, and it took them a while to be able to get the necessary support.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Stieb was the first Blue Jay to pitch a no-hitter. He had some bad luck, as he’s also known for losing two no-hit bids at the end of the 1988 season with two outs in the ninth inning.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

As far as I can tell.

CONCLUSION: Stieb is an interesting case. He was the best starting pitcher to debut between 1975 and 1983 (he came up in 1979), but his generation was probably the worst in major league history for producing starters. He might not have done well in Cy Young voting, but he made up for it in All-Star appearances.

We have only two starters in the BBFHOF with fewer than 230 career win shares: Koufax and Dean. Both of them had exceptional peaks. While Stieb easily had the best peak of his generation, the next generation had three pitchers with better peaks: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson.

I don’t know why starters of Stieb’s time had such low career win share totals; Frank Tanana, who came up in 1973, would top the list at 241. The middle 1970s was the period when the four-man rotation gave way to the five-man rotation, and this would have caused an increase demand for starters. We would get more young pitchers with high IP totals, and this would cause many of them to flame out early. If this line of reasoning is correct, it should show up in statistics: the majority of top starters from this era would peak early.

Guess what? Most of the top pitchers of the late 1970s and 1980s had their five-year win share peaks very early in their careers. This was the case with Guidry, Stieb, Saberhagen, Hershiser, Tanana, Valenzuela, Viola, and Gooden. Jack Morris was the only one with a mid-career peak. Well, Dennis Martinez peaked later on, but he never had a season with 20 win shares. The top pitchers of the 1990s tended to have their peaks in mid-career, or at least they didn’t start their peaks until several years as a regular starter: Maddux, Johnson, Glavine, Smoltz, Martinez, and Schilling are all examples. Clemens is the exception here, as his peak came rather early.

This indicates that pitchers of the Guidry-Stieb generation were worked too hard too early in their career. The switch from a four-man to five-man rotation led to reduced career win share totals for starting pitchers of Stieb’s era, and we need to take that into account.

Since Stieb’s peak is easily the best among starters of his generation, and he’s also among the leaders in career value among that generation, Stieb is deserving of a spot in the BBFHOF.

Both WAR and WAA tend to agree with this:

His career pWAR is 53.5. His peak is 4.6, 4.3, 7.3, 6.7, 7.6, 6.5.

His WAA is 31.0. His peak is 2.8, 2.9, 5.2, 4.6, 5.6, 4.5.

He was a 7 time All-Star. He factored into CY Young voting 4 times and MVP voting 3 times.

The fact is, there are no pitchers who debuted in Stieb's era in the HOF. The reasons AG2004 outlined for this was a rapid change from a 4 man to a 5 man rotation that rushed pitchers up to the big leagues before they were ready. This caused them to flame out early. At the very least, Dave Stieb and possibly Ron Guidry deserve more HOF consideration than they have received.

[Cowtipper]

Jack Morris - 3 - overrated pitcher.
Tony Oliva - 4 - Excellent ballplayer.
Steve Garvey - 4 - I really could go either way, but I'll give him the benefit this time.
Dave Concepcion - 3 - a vital cog of the Big Red Machine, but not a super great player.
Lou Whitaker - 3 - see Trammell below.
Norm Cash - 3 - not bad, not great.
Will Clark - 3 - a guy who has benefited from in-house cheer leading.
David Cone - 2 - very solid pitcher. Not a Hall of Famer.
Ron Guidry - 4 - incredible reign of dominance.
Alan Trammel - 3 - eh, I don't get the love. He was a very solid player who wouldn't make the Hall of Fame worse, but not having him in isn't a huge mistake, either.

Dave Stieb - 2 - WARriors and Sabermetricians will hate me, but I'd rather see Bob Welch in the Hall.
Dale Murphy - 2 - overrated outfielder of the 80s. I know he won a couple MVPs, but he's not quite there.
Billy Pierce - 4 - underrated pitcher of the 50s.
Lee Smith - 4 - first great compiler closer. An early Hoffman.
Vida Blue - 4 - nice career, I've always supported him.
Jim Wynn - 1 - horribly overrated with a case boosted by BBF groupthink.
Gil Hodges (player) - 4 - only player to ever earn 50% of the HOF and not eventually earn induction.
Dick Allen - 4 - great player, horrible personality. Would fit nicely in the Hall.
Mel Harder - 1 - underrated pitcher, but not a Hall of Famer.
Charlie Keller - 1 - see Wynn, but to a lesser degree. Barely played 1,100 career games and had only six years of 100 G or more.

[jjpm74]

For the rest of them:

Jack Morris 2
Tony Oliva 2
Steve Garvey 2
Dave Concepcion 3
Lou Whitaker 5
Norm Cash 2
Will Clark 3
David Cone 3
Ron Guidry 4
Alan Trammel 5
Dave Stieb 5
Dale Murphy 3
Billy Pierce 3
Lee Smith 2
Vida Blue 2
Jim Wynn 5
Gil Hodges (player) 3
Dick Allen 2
Mel Harder 2
Charlie Keller 2

[NJRob65]

Jack Morris-2
Tony Oliva-4
Steve Garvey-2
Dave Concepcion-3
Lou Whitaker-5
Norm Cash-3
Will Clark-4
David Cone-3
Ron Guidry-4
Alan Trammel-5
Dave Stieb-4
Dale Murphy-3
Billy Pierce-3
Lee Smith-2
Vida Blue-3
Jim Wynn-4
Gil Hodges-2
Dick Allen-5
Mel Harder-2
Charlie Keller-2

[Seels]

Jack Morris 2 - Don't see his case. Pretty average pitcher. At least 20 pitchers better that aren't in.
Tony Oliva 2 - I think he has a stronger case than Morris, but still, not in. His career was just too short.
Steve Garvey 2 - Lengthy career, but really a 1B has to hit better than that to be in. I think the absolute lowest offensive production I'd accept from a HoF 1B is John Olerud / Will Clark, two guys that are marginal cases at best.
Dave Concepcion 1 - No, not even close.
Lou Whitaker 4 -Hes' certainly a top 10 2B ever, and not too far off from the top 5. Good offense, good defense, part of one of the best teams ever, and long career.
Norm Cash 3 - I wouldn't vote for him, but I see his case. It's rare a HoF has a career really start at 25.
Will Clark 3 - I've waivered on whether or not I'd vote for him. He's not the best player not in, and wouldn't be among the worst in, but eh.
David Cone 5 - I think Cone should be in and am perplexed that he isn't. He passes all the tests except for a low career wins total. 5 WS rings, 121 era+, perfect game.
Ron Guidry 3 - Guidry has an ok case but a short career and most of his value comes in a very short peak.
Alan Trammel 5 - Probably one of the 7 or 8 best shortstops ever. Similar to Whitaker.
Dave Stieb 4 - See his case, but like Cone better. I think he should probably be in though. Probably one of the 5 best modern pitchers not in.
Dale Murphy 3 - I see his case too, but I wouldn't vote for him.
Billy Pierce 2 - He's before my time, but I wouldn't vote for him. Seems like an above average player that was never great and certainly never at hall of fame level.
Lee Smith 1 - No, not remotely close.
Vida Blue 3 - I like his case. Good pitcher.
Jim Wynn 2 - Good player that neither played long enough nor had a long enough career.
Gil Hodges (player) 2 - Not quite. Similar to Norm Cash.
Dick Allen - 3 (on the lower side) Great offensive player, but I believe all the clubhouse stuff. I wouldn't vote for him.
Mel Harder - Honestly I had to look him up, and just being a jerk, but if I have to look a guy up he probably isn't hall of fame worthy (he isn't).
Charlie Keller 1 - He played over 100 games 6 times, finished his career with about the same amount of PA as Joe Mauer currently has. With a career that short, he better be Babe Ruth and Wallter Johnson wrapped into one player.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

For the rest of them:Tony Oliva 2
Jim Wynn 5

May I ask why?

[ol' aches and pains]

I have to say Tyrus has this perfect. Although I can see an argument for some but he has reasons why down pat.

Really? You agree Billy Pierce deserves a one? The man started three All-Star Games in the 50's. That doesn't make him a Hall-of-Famer, but I don't think he rates an "are you kidding me?" either. And no reason given for that low ranking.

[KCGHOST]

Most of these guys had good careers, so they aren't chopped liver.

Jack Morris - 2
Tony Oliva - 3
Steve Garvey - 2
Dave Concepcion - 2
Lou Whitaker - 5
Norm Cash - 2
Will Clark - 4
David Cone - 3
Ron Guidry - 2
Alan Trammel - 5
Dave Stieb - 3
Dale Murphy - 3
Billy Pierce - 3
Lee Smith - 3
Vida Blue - 1
Jim Wynn - 2
Gil Hodges (player) - 2
Dick Allen - 2
Mel Harder - 2
Charlie Keller - 3

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Really? You agree Billy Pierce deserves a one? The man started three All-Star Games in the 50's. That doesn't make him a Hall-of-Famer, but I don't think he rates an "are you kidding me?" either. And no reason given for that low ranking.

I guess I didn't notice that one, I was reading the points he made on the players and not the numbers he ranked em.