King Felix and the HOF

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Speaking of Bert Blyleven I didn't really how much he pitched from age 19-25.



Blyleven 1970-76.jpg


From 1971-76 Blyleven averaged 291 innings per season including a 325.0 inning season. Amazing

[SamtheBravesFan]

I didn't look it up.

Just clarifying, that's all.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

Bringing over the discussion from the Jon Lester thread...

I don't disagree that King Felix probably doesn't clear the bar.

But, are his lousy recent seasons really that relevant? To me, the problem is more that Felix just wasn't good enough for long enough before his arm went bad.

Felix, on the other hand, clearly needed more good seasons when he hit the wall.

Absolutely–until I just gave his page another look I saw he's been playing for about two years longer than I'd remembered.

A lot of HOF pitchers were putrid their last season, or two, or sometimes four or five. (Steve Carlton comes to mind.) It's in fact awfully rare to go out on top, like say Sandy Koufax did. Generally, if you're still pitching well enough and you're physically able to keep going...hey, it beats working for a living, right?

But if they were good enough prior to the crash, it doesn't matter.

Carlton is an all-timer of all-timers though, while Felix, through little fault of his own, isn't one of the very best of his generation–being a career Mariner and getting overused while very young will do that to you.
I guess you could argue that kinda like Carlton, he was a huge difference between his teams being mediocre and being worthy of relegation to the minors. (I would say "the huge difference" but Carlton's Phillies also lucked into Mike Schmidt becoming arguably the GOAT third baseman and competent management; while Ichi was elite in his prime he was not nearly on Schmidt's level of ability to carry an offense, and the Mariners FO has been a running joke for the entirety of King Felix's career.)


Now that I'm done making huge reaches in comparisons... unless Felix rebounds at 33 from his rash of recent injuries AND jumps ship to a team that will provide some run support, his Hall chances are all but dead in the water. I'm not saying he needs Koufax-ian closing years, but if he treads water (or better) in W-L with good peripherals for two or three seasons, his case will look a whole lot better.

[bluesky5]

Hernandez seems like he already has one foot out the door. He has seemingly shown no desire to switch up his pitching style. Maybe he tried and he just couldn’t I don’t know. But barring a miracle of mind, spirit or body he’s totally finished.

[Cougar]

Hernandez seems like he already has one foot out the door. He has seemingly shown no desire to switch up his pitching style. Maybe he tried and he just couldn’t I don’t know. But barring a miracle of mind, spirit or body he’s totally finished.

His contract is up after this season (assuming the Mariners don't pick up his option should he qualify, which seems a safe bet). I wouldn't expect a stampede of teams pursuing him in free agency.

So he will likely retire at age 33 with a couple hundred million dollars in the bank. Not bad. I hope he has the good sense not to return to Venezuela.

[Cougar]

Carlton is an all-timer of all-timers though, while Felix, through little fault of his own, isn't one of the very best of his generation–being a career Mariner and getting overused while very young will do that to you.
I guess you could argue that kinda like Carlton, he was a huge difference between his teams being mediocre and being worthy of relegation to the minors. (I would say "the huge difference" but Carlton's Phillies also lucked into Mike Schmidt becoming arguably the GOAT third baseman and competent management; while Ichi was elite in his prime he was not nearly on Schmidt's level of ability to carry an offense, and the Mariners FO has been a running joke for the entirety of King Felix's career.)


Now that I'm done making huge reaches in comparisons... unless Felix rebounds at 33 from his rash of recent injuries AND jumps ship to a team that will provide some run support, his Hall chances are all but dead in the water. I'm not saying he needs Koufax-ian closing years, but if he treads water (or better) in W-L with good peripherals for two or three seasons, his case will look a whole lot better.

I think we're in agreement, since the bolded part is pretty much exactly my point.

It made absolutely no difference that Carlton was 16-37 with a 5.21 ERA his last four seasons. His ticket to Cooperstown was already punched.

Hernandez, on the other hand, was very good for his first 10 seasons or so. He won a Cy and also finished 2nd twice. He won two ERA titles. He struck out batters over 2000 times.

But, as good as he was, he wasn't Seaver/Koufax/Clemens/Kershaw good, so he needed more productive seasons to get over the HOF hump. And it seems near certain they aren't forthcoming.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

from the single-ballot thread...

Removed from futures list: Felix Hernandez

I usually wait until the end of the season before re-considering cases of active players, but I'm really close to taking him off even my "possibles" list. He's probably been a little better this year than his numbers suggest because of run support (a chronic issue throughout his career, yes; for god's sake his one CYA-winning campaign was possible because his awful W-L belied an ERA title and other great peripherals) but he's also gotten tattooed lately, something he can't afford over more than roughly this stretch of time.
What are the chances some team takes a chance on him at the deadline? Not like the M's have anything to lose by going into yet another quasi-rebuild...

[Chadwick]

At this point, Hernandez is a firm "no" for me. If he wants to change that narrative then it's incumbent on him to change his performance.

[Cougar]

Hernandez will be remembered as a really good, sometimes great pitcher who toiled for a typically hapless franchise for a long time.

Similar types might be Steve Rogers for Montreal, Brad Radke for Minnesota, Mel Harder for Cleveland...the best of the type might be Dave Stieb for Toronto

[jjpm74]

Hernandez will be remembered as a really good, sometimes great pitcher who toiled for a typically hapless franchise for a long time.

Similar types might be Steve Rogers for Montreal, Brad Radke for Minnesota, Mel Harder for Cleveland...the best of the type might be Dave Stieb for Toronto

Yep, that is where he is currently, barring a late career surge. You can also throw Kevin Appier into that mix for Kansas City.

[sturg1dj]

Yep, that is where he is currently, barring a late career surge. You can also throw Kevin Appier into that mix for Kansas City.

unlike the guys listed he at least had a cy young and a perfect game.

[Cougar]

unlike the guys listed he at least had a cy young and a perfect game.

Appier won a Cy Young? I don't think so. I don't recall a perfect game from him either.

Edit: Oh, never mind, you're talking about Felix, aren't you?

[sturg1dj]

Edit: Oh, never mind, you're talking about Felix, aren't you?

Sorry, yeah. Felix.

[Bravesfan1984]

I guess I am in the minority who thinks he should be on the Hall of Fame. He had four seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and two where it was barely above 3.00. Not to mention he has four top five CY Young finishes winning it in 2010. People forget how bad some of those Mariner teams were that he played on he had little help a lot of years.

[Cougar]

I guess I am in the minority who thinks he should be on the Hall of Fame. He had four seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and two where it was barely above 3.00. Not to mention he has four top five CY Young finishes winning it in 2010. People forget how bad some of those Mariner teams were that he played on he had little help a lot of years.

My first instinct was to scoff at this, but I went back and looked, and there's something to this argument.

One has to get past the pedestrian-seeming W-L record, and the bad bellyflop after age 30. But if one can do that, 2009-2015 is really a helluva peak.

Even taking his career as a whole, 2700 innings with 2500 Ks & a 3.38 career ERA (in this era) would not look very out of place in Cooperstown. Lower end, sure, but not the worst guy there by any means.