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King Felix and the HOF

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear View Post
    [King Felix] may end up as “The Greatest Mariner Pitcher of All Time” if he spends his career with the Mariners (with apologies to the Big Unit).
    It's safe to say he already dons that particular crown.

    If he doesn’t make 200 wins, he won’t go into the HOF. 200 wins isn’t a lock for the HOF, but it’s the point where most starters become viable candidates. If a guy doesn’t have 200 wins, but is close (185 wins and up), he’s gotta have BIG seasons, and an impressive W-L percentage. If he’s in the 170s or below, he’s gotta be Dean or Koufax; Ron Guidry ain’t gonna cut it.
    Quite true. Consider the following:

    303 Johnson
    270 Mussina
    269 Moyer
    256 Pettitte
    219 Martinez
    216 Schilling
    213 Hudson
    213 Smoltz
    208 Sabathia
    203 Halladay
    -------------------
    199 Colon
    197 Buehrle
    163 Oswalt
    139 Santana
    121 Hernandez

    Even 200 is far from an assurance that a stud pitcher would get elected. But he would have to have been otherworldly for 5-7 years (not 2-3) with traditional stats in order to solicit support if he falls closer to 150 wins in his career. At this point, that wouldn't happen. Like it or not, things like a "20 win season" still set people apart in the minds of a majority of BBWAA voters.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by Brad Harris View Post
      My father, brother and I were in Canton on Friday. We had to spend the night in Mentor, OH. (Which worked out great because we went to James Garfield's home the next morning before heading into Cleveland.)

      I also noticed that Jones' induction makes for a trio of Seahawks in the Pro Football HoF. They had some cool merchandise with those three displayed together, too, but I'm not a Seahawks fan so....
      I stayed in Willoughby. I visited Garfield's home Friday, his birthplace Sunday. Didn't get to see his grave but I've been there before. Same cemetery as Ray Chapman. I wasn't there for the football HOF though, I was in town to the National Sports Card Convention. It sounds like a good weekend in Canton, though. Most people I've heard from liked Claude Humphrey's speech. The seniors inductees are usually emotional.

      That's another thing the football HOF does well-they do well by every team in their gift shop.

      Randy Johnson obviously will get into Cooperstown next year. With Maddux being granted no logo on his cap, you have to wonder if Johnson may go the same route. Ken Griffey Jr. should have the Mariners logo, he was merely all-star caliber at best once or twice when he was with his hometown Reds. I hope when it comes time to honor Hernandez, should he remain healthy, it will not be a question.
      Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
      Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
      Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
      Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
      Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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      • #48
        I posted this in the Stat Milestones thread in Current Events as Felix just reached 2,000 career IP...

        Pitchers with 2,000+ IP thru Age 28 season:
        (since 1960)
        ERA+ thru Age 28 is in parentheses.

        1 Sam McDowell 1961-1971 (119)
        2 Larry Dierker 1964-1975 (106)
        3 Ken Holtzman 1965-1974 (110)
        4 Catfish Hunter 1965-1974 (105)
        5 Joe Coleman 1965-1975 (97)
        6 Don Sutton 1966-1973 (110)
        7 Vida Blue 1969-1978 (118)
        8 Bert Blyleven 1970-1979 (130)
        9 Fernando Valenzuela 1980-1989 (111)
        10 Dwight Gooden 1984-1993 (118)
        11 Felix Hernandez 2005-2014 (131)
        Hunter, Sutton, and Blyleven are the only HOFers on the list.
        Last edited by GiambiJuice; 08-12-2014, 11:42 AM.
        My top 10 players:

        1. Babe Ruth
        2. Barry Bonds
        3. Ty Cobb
        4. Ted Williams
        5. Willie Mays
        6. Alex Rodriguez
        7. Hank Aaron
        8. Honus Wagner
        9. Lou Gehrig
        10. Mickey Mantle

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
          I posted this in the Stat Milestones thread in Current Events as Felix just reached 2,000 career IP...



          Hunter, Sutton, and Blyleven are the only HOFers on the list.
          He's probalby the 2nd best on that list thru his age 28 season, after Blyleven, though Sudden Sam and Doc were pretty close.
          I think Felix needs 3-4 more Felix type seasons after this year. Winning the Cy this year would help.

          Comment


          • #50
            Hernandez now 125 wins through his age 28 season. Among the post WW-II 300 game winners only Seaver, Clemens, and Maddux had more win through age 28. On the other hand the most wins through age 28 since WW II is Catfish Hunter's 161 wins.

            300 Win Club-2014.png
            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

            Comment


            • #51
              Since 1901
              125 wins and 130 ERA+ through age 28

              In chronological order...

              1 Christy Mathewson
              2 Addie Joss
              3 Ed Reulbach
              4 Walter Johnson
              5 Pete Alexander
              6 Lefty Gomez
              7 Dizzy Dean
              8 Bob Feller
              9 Hal Newhouser
              10 Robin Roberts
              11 Juan Marichal
              12 Tom Seaver
              13 Roger Clemens
              14 Pedro Martinez
              15 Felix Hernandez
              My top 10 players:

              1. Babe Ruth
              2. Barry Bonds
              3. Ty Cobb
              4. Ted Williams
              5. Willie Mays
              6. Alex Rodriguez
              7. Hank Aaron
              8. Honus Wagner
              9. Lou Gehrig
              10. Mickey Mantle

              Comment


              • #52
                Interesting. Let's dig a little deeper....

                Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                Since 1901
                125 wins and 130 ERA+ through age 28

                In chronological order...

                Since 1901
                115 wins and 120 ERA+ through age 28

                Count: 30


                Since 1901
                115 wins and 120 ERA+ through age 28
                In Hall of Fame or on the ballot

                Count: 18



                Since 1947:

                Less than 200 wins, better than 115 ERA+, not a relief pitcher (e.g., Gossage, Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter), in the Hall of Fame:

                1, Koufax.



                Schilling has 216 wins and a 127 ERA+. He hasn't cracked 40% in votes in his first 2 years.

                So realistically Felix needs 100 more wins and can't drop off his skill level to any big measure. Koufax of course is a big hurdle as his peaks were far superior and his post seasons were incomparable. Another problem is Kershaw who looks superior and being 2 years younger may not only haunt his career for years to come, but might be on the ballot at the same time.



                It still depends on how much Felix maintains and evolves as he ages. Nothing is set and he certainly has done a great body of work, but I would say it's far from a done deal.
                Last edited by drstrangelove; 10-14-2014, 01:18 PM.
                "It's better to look good, than be good."

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
                  Interesting. Let's dig a little deeper....

                  Since 1901
                  115 wins and 120 ERA+ through age 28

                  Count: 30


                  Since 1901
                  115 wins and 120 ERA+ through age 28
                  In Hall of Fame or on the ballot

                  Count: 18

                  Chances are 60/40 at this point.
                  But a 130 ERA+ is much more impressive than a 120 ERA+. 125 wins is more than 115, etc.

                  I think his odds are better than 60/40.
                  My top 10 players:

                  1. Babe Ruth
                  2. Barry Bonds
                  3. Ty Cobb
                  4. Ted Williams
                  5. Willie Mays
                  6. Alex Rodriguez
                  7. Hank Aaron
                  8. Honus Wagner
                  9. Lou Gehrig
                  10. Mickey Mantle

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                    But a 130 ERA+ is much more impressive than a 120 ERA+. 125 wins is more than 115, etc.

                    I think his odds are better than 60/40.

                    His ERA+ is 130 today at age 28. Yes, it would be very impressive if he pitches until age 40 and still is at 130. If the plan is: he wins 300 games and has a 130 ERA+ when he retires, then I'd say his odds are indeed much better than 60/40. Is that the plan?


                    Mussina has 270 wins and a 123 ERA+ and just got 20% of the vote. I guess, like Schilling, he had the wrong plan.


                    From looking at Mussina and Schilling, I don't think we can expect anyone to get in nowadays with 216-270 wins and a 123-127 ERA+. And between those two particular numbers, the one that voters look at the most by far is wins. So Felix has had a good start, but he has a lot of work left. Maybe we agree.


                    I like Felix. What bothers me most is not his skills: this year he had a great year, started 34 games and only won 15. Not his fault, but to voters, it looks unimpressive.
                    Last edited by drstrangelove; 10-14-2014, 01:35 PM.
                    "It's better to look good, than be good."

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Mussina will get in eventually IMO. He's a victim of stacked HoF ballots for the next few years. But with the new 10 year on the ballot rule it could get interesting. Felix has a 130 ERA+ through 2060.2 IP. Mussina had a 130 ERA+ through 2009.2 IP.
                      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Too bad for Mussina and Schilling and Smoltz. I am pretty sure that no one has a 127 ERA+ with more innings that Schilling (plus his FIP is even better) and no one has a 125 ERA+ with more innings than Smoltz, and I think that Mussina is close to the same distinction. Kevin Brown also has a hair better ERA+ than Schilling with a few less innings.

                        They are the only guys for whom no one is higher in both IP and ERA+ not in (Smoltz, Schilling, Brown, and maybe Mussina). Blyleven also was in that club.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          I do think that, psychologically, raw ERA is just as important as ERA+..maybe even moreso to the people who actually vote for the HOF. In other words, a 123 ERA+ with a 3.10 ERA is much more likely to be voted in than a 123 ERA+ with a 3.68 ERA.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by willshad View Post
                            I do think that, psychologically, raw ERA is just as important as ERA+..maybe even moreso to the people who actually vote for the HOF. In other words, a 123 ERA+ with a 3.10 ERA is much more likely to be voted in than a 123 ERA+ with a 3.68 ERA.
                            Mussina pitched almost entirely in the steroid era in a tough division for pitchers. A 3.68 ERA for that time period is very good.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by massa1177 View Post
                              Mussina pitched almost entirely in the steroid era in a tough division for pitchers. A 3.68 ERA for that time period is very good.
                              Good point and you're absolutely right to think so.

                              Problem is that 50% of the voters don't know, don't care. They still believe in blood letting, that diseases are caused by bad vapors in the air and that people who consort with the devil should be tied to a stake and burned.
                              "It's better to look good, than be good."

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by drstrangelove View Post
                                Good point and you're absolutely right to think so.

                                Problem is that 50% of the voters don't know, don't care. They still believe in blood letting, that diseases are caused by bad vapors in the air and that people who consort with the devil should be tied to a stake and burned.
                                Or Mussina could have done more so that it wasn't such a hitter's era. He could have pitched better, so the batting stats weren't so good. Maybe there was just bad pitching in his era?

                                Ah,.....the trap of proportionality. :disgruntled:
                                This week's Giant

                                #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

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