King Felix and the HOF

[Edgartohof]

Just to start off, I am not saying that he is already deserving of induction, but as he is already in his 8th season (at 26 years young), he already has a decent resume (capped with a Cy Young and a Perfect Game!).

Here are his stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ernafe02.shtml

Is he on course for the Hall of Fame? Or does he have to pick it up? His wins total is low, much to do with his team... but he is still young and if he stays healthy (as he pretty much as to date), he could be around for a while.

What more does he have to do to make it? And will he be deserving say in 2 more years when he meets the minimum 10 rule?

What say you BBF?

[Bothrops Atrox]

Just to start off, I am not saying that he is already deserving of induction, but as he is already in his 8th season (at 26 years young), he already has a decent resume (capped with a Cy Young and a Perfect Game!).

Here are his stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ernafe02.shtml

Is he on course for the Hall of Fame? Or does he have to pick it up? His wins total is low, much to do with his team... but he is still young and if he stays healthy (as he pretty much as to date), he could be around for a while.

What more does he have to do to make it? And will he be deserving say in 2 more years when he meets the minimum 10 rule?

What say you BBF?

A 130 ERA+, almost 100 wins and 30 WAR is on good, but not great pace for the HOF. He needs a prolonged peak and to avoid injuries, but yes, it is possible. It would help if he were on a team that scored more runs to increase his perception by improving his W/L totals, etc.

[Los Bravos]

Interesting that he's almost exactly at half of what's expected on three of the HOF stats measurements at BBRef.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Felix's win total is not low for age 26. He should reach 100 career wins by the end of this season.

[jjpm74]

I'd like to see him at least get to 150 career wins before measuring in, but he is easily the best pitcher of his generation.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Felix's win total is not low for age 26. He should reach 100 career wins by the end of this season.

His W/L record is low for a HOF pitcher to not hit his decline yet, and any single season W total outside of the year he won 19 is not too impressive. He has not cleared 15 in any season other than that one. Not his fault, of course, but we still live in a baseball world where wins are a big deal for pitchers. He has a lot of wins because he started so young, not because he racks up a lot of wins every year. Big difference in percpetion. 100 wins through 8 seasons is not a traditional HOF pace; but 100 through 26 years old is. Should be interesting.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I'd like to see him at least get to 150 career wins before measuring in, but he is easily the best pitcher of his generation.

Easily that much better than Verlander? Do you consider CC or Halladay in his generation?

[jjpm74]

Easily that much better than Verlander? Do you consider CC or Halladay in his generation?

Halladay is almost 10 years older. The year he made his debut, Roger Clemens won the CYA. Does that mean that Roger Clemens is from Halladay's generation? Why even bring him into the discussion? Sabathia is 5 years older. Yes, Felix Hernandez is easily better than Justin Verlander to this point and Verlander is also older than Hernandez.

[Edgartohof]

The biggest thing going for Felix right now is that he is still so young. Because he started out at just age 18, he got a head start that many others do not. And his 130 ERA+ is better than Verlander's 128... and who is to say that this is Felix's best? He could still get better, lots of time for that.

His '08 and '09 seasons are not too far off of Verlander's '11 and current '12 seasons and he still has a few years to catch up to where Verlander is now. And if we are saying that Verlander is his best competition (not that we should forget the likes of Strasburg or Lincecum), then we should mention that Felix does have 31 more wins than Verlander did through age 26 (yes because he started younger). And again, his 130 ERA+ is better than Verlander's 115 that he carried through age 26. And Verlander is just now coming into his own, Felix started off better than Verlander did and has shown that he still can improve.

Felix already has 1500+ IP under his belt (more than the older, more mature Verlander), only 26 years old, has a Cy Young award (and a 2nd place finish), has thrown a 1-hitter and a perfect game, has some of the nastiest stuff in the game... All to say that he is gunning to be the best and to beat the best on the way.

One of the biggest things that will help him in the future is that he has been given free reign, he was tethered down for years with pitch and inning counts, not allowed to finish games when he could have and should have. He is the ace on his team and one of the best in the game. He isthe top or clearly one of the top pitchers of now and the future.

If the M's can turn into at least a decent club and give him decent chances to win his games, he should see 250 Wins without much difficulty. Much beyond that is crazy speculation, but then again at this point, saying he will get another 150+ wins is crazy too.

[willshad]

Hernandez has a long way to go. His stats up until age 26 are nearly identical to Bret Saberhagen, who didn't come close to making the hall. He has accomplished a lot for his age, but for a pitcher that isn't always a good thing. Lots of innings on that arm already. Is he really much better than Jared Weaver? true, Weaver is 3 years older, but he is also getting better every season, while King Felix has appeared to peaked a couple of years ago.

[ol' aches and pains]

His win total is low because he's on a bad team. Put him on the Yankees or the Rangers, and he'd be a perennial 20-game winner. I hope the HOF voters are baseball-savvy enough to recognize this. After all, he won the 2010 CYA with a 13-12 record. And the Sabermetrically-inclined don't put much value on a pitcher's win totals anyway. I think if he keeps doing what he's doing, doesn't get hurt or caught juicing or something stupid, he's got a great shot at the Hall.

[Cowtipper]

"We'll see."

His list of players through age 25 is a mix of great, good and ho-hum...which means he still has plenty of time to turn out any which way.

Just look at Lincecum.

[Freakshow]

Active pitchers born after 7/1/79 (2012 season age 32 or younger), minimum 950 IP, highest ERA+

Rk             Player GmScA  WAR ERA+ OPS+ Born     IP From   To   Age   W  L
1     Adam Wainwright  56.9 18.9  133   81 1981 1025.2 2005 2012 23-30  77 45
2        Jered Weaver  57.1 27.8  131   77 1982 1269.2 2006 2012 23-29  97 49
3     Felix Hernandez  57.6 31.2  130   79 1986 1568.1 2005 2012 19-26  96 72
4    Justin Verlander  57.3 32.5  128   72 1983 1491.0 2005 2012 22-29 119 64
5         Cole Hamels  57.6 26.9  127   81 1983 1325.0 2006 2012 22-28  87 60
6         CC Sabathia  55.7 49.7  125   80 1980 2506.0 2001 2012 20-31 188 99
7           Matt Cain  56.8 28.0  124   80 1984 1477.0 2005 2012 20-27  80 78
8        Tim Lincecum  58.1 22.0  123   79 1984 1168.1 2007 2012 23-28  75 54
9     Carlos Zambrano  54.3 36.1  120   82 1981 1950.0 2001 2012 20-31 132 90
10         Jon Lester  54.1 22.5  120   83 1984 1104.2 2006 2012 22-28  82 44
11         Jake Peavy  56.8 31.3  117   84 1981 1744.0 2002 2012 21-31 118 89
12          Dan Haren  54.7 28.6  116   87 1980 1825.0 2003 2012 22-31 115 93
13       Zack Greinke  53.4 28.4  113   91 1983 1428.2 2004 2012 20-28  86 77
14     Ubaldo Jimenez  53.1 16.7  113   83 1984 1054.0 2006 2012 22-28  69 61
15       Josh Beckett  54.2 31.0  112   83 1980 1843.0 2001 2012 21-32 130 91

[Bothrops Atrox]

Halladay is almost 10 years older. The year he made his debut, Roger Clemens won the CYA. Does that mean that Roger Clemens is from Halladay's generation? Why even bring him into the discussion? Sabathia is 5 years older. Yes, Felix Hernandez is easily better than Justin Verlander to this point and Verlander is also older than Hernandez.

I don't care about age as much as when their careers overlap. I am not saying you are wrong, just looking for clarification. For me, if 10 or so years overlap, they could be considered peers. I still don't see anything that makes Felix EASILY better than Verlander, even though I would probably take Felix 1st if I had to draft any pitcher in baseball right now.

[leecemark]

--Felix does have to pitch into his baseball old age to have a long career and he doesn't have to improve to be a Hall of Famer. He has the first half of a Hall of Fame career in the books at age 26. All he has to do is avoid major injury. Unfortunately that is easier said than done for any pitcher.
--If he is still at the same level at age 30 that would be enough for me and judging by how he won a CYA with an unimpressive win total perhaps it would be enough for the actual voters. Of course it would be nice if the Mariners could manage to put a decent offensive team on the field to help him get a few 20 win years added to the resume. With 75% of the vote needed you'd like to have something for the traditionalist voters to get behind. It would also be nice to think he will avoid that serious injury and give us the second half of that HoF career - and he'd still be young enough for a solid third act as well .