A bunch of guys: Hall of Fame?

[George H Ruth]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8351132/evaluating-hall-fame-candidacies-active-players-mlb

It's behind the paywall, so I'm not sure what the protocol is for posting highlights?

Essentially, he breaks players into categories:

LOCKS
A-Rod (depending on PED's)
Jeter
Rivera
Chipper
Thome
Vizquel
Pujols
Cabrera
Halladay

PROBABLY
Rolen

MAYBE
Big Papi
Johan Santana
Helton
Beltran!
Andruw Jones
Adrian Beltre
Utley

GETTING CLOSE
Konerko
Sabathia
Hudson

PROBABLY NOT, BUT GETTING CLOSER
Hunter
Rollins

Thoughts? Comments?

[chicagowhitesox1173]

It does look pretty accurate, the only guy I would move up a rank is Tim Hudson.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I don't see Beltre getting in. He has impressive offensive seasons and a good arm, but he never had a dynamite run. Even now, he's likely to decline. It would be foolish to put in a guy because of a few strings of seasons equivalent to 130 OPS+. You'd have to open the doors for so many other players

[Bothrops Atrox]

Not a terrible list. I am not sold Vizquel will make it. I also think Konerko isn't that close and CC is a lot closer. Hunter and Rollins have 0% chance.

I disagree re: Beltre. Unless he has a huge and fast decline, he will be a 400+ HR guy with many gold gloves, All Star appearances, and probably more postseason recognition if he stays with Texas. Had a monster 2004, which would have netted him the MVP w/o Bonds. His sabermetric stats are very favorable too, and 15 years from now, I think newer metrics will be used much more by the voters in HOF voting than they are now.

I just don't see a 400 HR 3B with an outstanding defensive reputaion not getting in.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I didn't read the article, but I am assuming that Ichiro was left off for some specific reason.

Also, Berkman and Holliday have better shots than several of the guys they listed.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I didn't read the article, but I am assuming that Ichiro was left off for some specific reason.

Also, Berkman and Holliday have better shots than several of the guys they listed.

Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko have a better shot than Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko have a better shot than Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.

Where did I say otherwise? I didn't realize that "several guys on the list" meant "Dunn" and "Konerko". Dunn isn't even on the list at all, so why would you include him?

I was referring to Rollins, Hunter, and Ortiz, who with the PED cloud has little chance given Bonds and Clemens will struggle to make it.

I don't think Berkman will make it either - but niether will 90% of the guys below the "lock" section.

Konerko won't make it either, btw. I think Holliday has a decent chance. Less than 50%, but a chance.

[dgarza]

Those MAYBE and PROBABLY groups need to be balanced out. Helton is one, for example, that should be moved up into PROBABLY.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Those MAYBE and PROBABLY groups need to be balanced out. Helton is one, for example, that should be moved up into PROBABLY.

With no MVPs, no huge milestones, and PED whispers, Helton will not make it, much less "probably" make it.

[PVNICK]

I would put Vizquel on the maybe list. Surprised (pleasantly ) that Rolen is probably. Papi has 0 chance he's a DH with roid allegations. Beltran, Helton and Andruw seem about right even if I think they all crush Vizquel. Not a bad list overall, at least he acknowledges many guys that superficially seem underrated like Beltre and Utley.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday weren't listed either. And I would say Konerko has a pretty good chance of making it in.

[dgarza]

Seems like a lot of HOF predictions are done so with short term lenses. In the long term (40... 50+ years), some of these guys have better chances than the author thinks. Concerns of today will fade to a degree. I myself would not be so arrogant to assume that my pains and concerns should be those of future generations.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday weren't listed either. And I would say Konerko has a pretty good chance of making it in.

Much, much, much bigger 1B stars (McGriff, Mattingly, Hodges) didn't make it. Konerko has to have 500 HRs to make it, and I don't think he will get there.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Seems like a lot of HOF predictions are done so with short term lenses. In the long term (40... 50+ years), some of these guys have better chances than the author thinks. Concerns of today will fade to a degree. I myself would not be so arrogant to assume that my pains and concerns should be those of future generations.

Perhaps. But the current PED paradigm is here to stay for a while. When the paradigm changes, so will my guesswork.

[dgarza]

Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday weren't listed either.

I would have liked to have seen Abreu listed as well.