A bunch of guys: Hall of Fame?

[PVNICK]

I'll give Konerko credit he has been a .300 hitter the last few years (albeit barely). It is hard to conceive of a position player whose best and only top ten MVP finishes are 5th and 6th getting voted into the hall of fame by what I presume is the much the same body of voters. I'm also hard pressed to say that 500 is some magic number anymore. I am fairly certain 20-30 years ago 400 had the same cachet and would be curious to see what was written about Billy Williams and Darrell Evans/Dave Kingman at the relevant times.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Konerko will make it if he makes it to 500. 499 and he is out but as soon as he gets to 500 he will be a lock. I'm not saying he will reach 500 but if he does he will have a strong finish and voters really like that.

but all in all I think that list is a little too optimistic most guys aside from the locks won't have a chance and even there I'm not sure about vizquel

In post 13, I did say that konerko has to hit 500 to make it.

[Bigfoot 88]

I didn't see Jim Edmonds listed. He's got to be a least a "maybe".

He retired.

[dominik]

Where did I say otherwise? I didn't realize that "several guys on the list" meant "Dunn" and "Konerko". Dunn isn't even on the list at all, so why would you include him?

I was referring to Rollins, Hunter, and Ortiz, who with the PED cloud has little chance given Bonds and Clemens will struggle to make it.

I don't think Berkman will make it either - but niether will 90% of the guys below the "lock" section.

Konerko won't make it either, btw. I think Holliday has a decent chance. Less than 50%, but a chance.

Konerko will make it if he makes it to 500. 499 and he is out but as soon as he gets to 500 he will be a lock. I'm not saying he will reach 500 but if he does he will have a strong finish and voters really like that.

but all in all I think that list is a little too optimistic most guys aside from the locks won't have a chance and even there I'm not sure about vizquel

[ol' aches and pains]

I didn't see Jim Edmonds listed. He's got to be a least a "maybe".

[NJRob65]

He overrates most of these guys' chances. I would say Cabrera is 'getting close'..far from a lock already. Vizquel has virtually no chance. Big Papi is a juicer so his chances are virtually nil as well. I think Giambi has a better shot than Papi. Jones and Utley did not do enough, and aren't likely to add anything in the future. Rolen is a 'maybe maybe'. Hunter and Rollins? No way.

Agreed particularly regarding Vizquel. His failure to reach 3000 hits pretty much dooms his chances. Alan Trammell, a fellow shortstop and a much better candidate, has a career WAR 67.1 , while Vizquel has a WAR of 40.3. FWIW, Fan EloRater has Trammell as the number 69 offensive player of all time, while Vizquel is #221. Trammell hasn't close to getting elected, how in the world would Vizquel be considered a lock? Also, Johnny Damon at least merits a mention, as does Lance Berkman.

Scott Rolen should make it, but he won't come close.

The fact that he overrates the chances of elected of several candidates makes the exclusion of Ichiro Suzuki, who is a lock, all the more puzzling.

[Bothrops Atrox]

He overrates most of these guys' chances. I would say Cabrera is 'getting close'..far from a lock already. Vizquel has virtually no chance. Big Papi is a juicer so his chances are virtually nil as well. I think Giambi has a better shot than Papi. Jones and Utley did not do enough, and aren't likely to add anything in the future. Rolen is a 'maybe maybe'. Hunter and Rollins? No way.

I agree - I think he was approaching the list more form a who he thinks deserves it angle.

[willshad]

He overrates most of these guys' chances. I would say Cabrera is 'getting close'..far from a lock already. Vizquel has virtually no chance. Big Papi is a juicer so his chances are virtually nil as well. I think Giambi has a better shot than Papi. Jones and Utley did not do enough, and aren't likely to add anything in the future. Rolen is a 'maybe maybe'. Hunter and Rollins? No way.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

TV announcers don't have a vote. It's the writers who have a vote. I've heard several TV announcers mention Lance Berkman as a future HOFer when he hangs it up. That doesn't mean he will get in either. At the end of his career, a couple of non-Met announcers referred to John Franco as a HOFer. He didn't even clear the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

Yeah but Franco is a reliever, Berkman is too injury prone but Visquel is adored by most writers for his defense. There gonna give him the Ozzie Smith treatment. (Although Ozzie Smith was better and really was a hofer)

[Bothrops Atrox]

TV announcers don't have a vote. It's the writers who have a vote. I've heard several TV announcers mention Lance Berkman as a future HOFer when he hangs it up. That doesn't mean he will get in either. At the end of his career, a couple of non-Met announcers referred to John Franco as a HOFer. He didn't even clear the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey, and Orel Hershiser were called "Future HOFers" a lot while active. Bert Blyleven never was.

[Bothrops Atrox]

We need to keep in mind that this is a list of who we think will make it. Not who we think should or who we wish would. MVP's, ASG appearances, HRs, RBIs, BA, and milestones are still the key factors in actual enshrinement. No matter how much I like WAR, or whatever, the facts are, guys like Jones, Helton, Rolen, and Beltran did not do enough of those writer-favorite things to be elected. I wouldn't be surprised if nobody under the LOCK section from above make it unless some of them hang on long enough to accumulate benchmarks.

[jjpm74]

I'm not a big fan of Visquel but I have a hard time believing he wont be voted in. Every time I see him on tv these days the announcers are talking about how he's a shoo-in for the hof. I would have to think the voters feel the same way.

TV announcers don't have a vote. It's the writers who have a vote. I've heard several TV announcers mention Lance Berkman as a future HOFer when he hangs it up. That doesn't mean he will get in either. At the end of his career, a couple of non-Met announcers referred to John Franco as a HOFer. He didn't even clear the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Vizquel is definitely not a lock. He will be a 20-40% vote getter at best and doesn't deserve election, IMO (and I'm a large HOF guy).

Cabrera is not there yet. A few more good years and he will be.

Only Beltran has a shot out of the maybes. Johann Santana had a HOF peak, but the traditionalists will not go for his wins totals and it looks like his best days are behind him. Helton gets punished by a lot of people for playing in Colorado during the PEDs and pre-humidor era.

Does the author give a reason for excluding Ichiro Suzuki? That is a pretty big player to overlook.

I'm not a big fan of Visquel but I have a hard time believing he wont be voted in. Every time I see him on tv these days the announcers are talking about how he's a shoo-in for the hof. I would have to think the voters feel the same way.

[jjpm74]

Vizquel is definitely not a lock. He will be a 20-40% vote getter at best and doesn't deserve election, IMO (and I'm a large HOF guy).

Cabrera is not there yet. A few more good years and he will be.

Only Beltran has a shot out of the maybes. Johann Santana had a HOF peak, but the traditionalists will not go for his wins totals and it looks like his best days are behind him. Helton gets punished by a lot of people for playing in Colorado during the PEDs and pre-humidor era.

Does the author give a reason for excluding Ichiro Suzuki? That is a pretty big player to overlook.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I would have liked to have seen Abreu listed as well.

He is in a different category - probably the same as Berkman. Guys who were close, but who's time has closed to get any closer. Neither will make it. Helton is probably in that group too.