Eighteen years ago in The Politics of Glory, Bill James tossed out his off-the-cuff predictions for future hall of famers. Likewise, the scholars here at BBF are fond of expressing their opinions on which active players will make the Hall some day, and I think we can do it better. We wouldn’t predict guys like Joe Carter and Brett Butler will make the Hall, right?
We get a lot of it here regarding active players: “Is so-and-so a future hall of famer?” It’s usually some young guy who just had his first good year, or someone in his prime who had a career year, or some older guy who has a chance to compile impressive career totals. It often just amounts to so much noise. This project aims to take a systematic approach to the question.
The first thing to determine is the number of players elected to the Hall each year. (There are a number of ways to calculate this, all arriving at a similar number. I faced the issue eight years ago in this article “An Open Letter to the Hall of Fame“) Looking at the long stretch of history, all players born from 1880 to 1940. Including Negro leaguers, the Hall has enshrined 158 players born in that 61-year span, or 2.6 per year. They will no doubt add to that number, with Minoso, Hodges, Oliva and Kaat being the prime candidates.
We’ll use 2.6 as our target to elect. There is a good argument to be made that it should be higher than this, given the game’s expansion and development. However, there is not yet any indication that the HOF or their electors intend to acknowledge these facts and do anything to expand the number elected in the future. So we’ll stick with the historical standard.
I decided it will be my approach to group players by year of birth. We will start by looking at players born in 1962. The oldest player active in 2012 (Moyer) was born in 1962; also relevant, no likely HOFers were born in 1961. Only two HOFers were born after 1960 (Larkin and Alomar).
I’ll post a series of polls. Each will contain ten or more candidates born in a two-year span. The first poll will include the best players born in 1962-63. Vote for the (usually) five players you think are most likely to be elected to the HOF by the BBWAAA. We’ll move forward in time from there, with the next poll being players born in 1963-64, then 1964-65, and so on. A player who finishes in the top five in both polls he appears in will be considered “elected”.(*) Occasionally we’ll vote for four or six, depending on a subjective assessment of the quality of candidates.
This will leave us a few players short of 2.6 per year. We will have a few runoff polls to determine the remaining choices.
The first few elections will cover players that we’ve debated for years; the stars of the “steroids era“. As we go forward, the choices become more speculative. Theories about which types of players are likely to enjoy longevity will become important as we move through players born in the 1980‘s.
Remember, we are trying to predict which players the HOF will elect, not which players you think are most deserving. That is, vote for the guys you think will be most favored by the HOF voters. Put yourself in the position of predicting what the Hall will do in the next 50 years. Which players from this generation will be in the HOF in 2063? Will some sort of PED ban still be in force, or will perspective among the voters evolve to the point where that becomes unimportant? I think that being a part of this project will help to sharpen your thinking on the issue of who is and who is not likely to make the HOF.
Any ideas you may have to enhance this project are welcome. I’ll get the first poll up in a couple days. I think we can move pretty quickly, posting one or two polls in a week, leaving them open for about 4 weeks. I’m planning to go as far as 1986, making 25 polls before the runoffs.
*Here are the players from each year that we think will eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame:
1961(1) - Don Mattingly
1962(1) - Roger Clemens
1963(4) - Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff
1964(2) - Barry Larkin, Barry Bonds
1965(1) - Craig Biggio
1966(4) - Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker
1967(3) - John Smoltz, Trevor Hoffman, Omar Vizquel
1968(8) - Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa
1969(2) - Ken Griffey, Jr., Mariano Rivera
1970(2) - Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds
1971(2) - Pedro Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez
1972(3) - Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Andy Pettitte
1973(2) - Ichiro Suzuki, Todd Helton
1974(1) - Derek Jeter
1975(3) - Alex Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Scott Rolen
1976(2) - Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko
1977(3) - Roy Halladay, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones
1978(2) - Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins
1979(2) - Adrian Beltre, Ryan Howard
1980(3) - Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira
1981(1) - Josh Hamilton
1982(2) - Robinson Cano, David Wright
1983(5) - Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun
1984(2) - Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp
1985(1) - Evan Longoria
1986(1) - Felix Hernandez
Links to elections
#1: Players Born 1962-63
#2: Players Born 1963-64
#3: Players Born 1964-65
#4: Players Born 1965-66
#5: Players Born 1966-67
#6: Players Born 1967-68
#7: Players Born 1968-69
#8: Players Born 1969-70
#9: Players Born 1970-71
#10: Players Born 1971-72
#11: Players Born 1972-73
#12: Players Born 1973-74
#13: Players Born 1974-75
#14: Players Born 1975-76
#15: Players Born 1976-77
#16: Players Born 1977-78
#17: Players Born 1978-79
#18: Players Born 1979-80
#19: Players Born 1980-81
#20: Players Born 1981-82
#21: Players Born 1982-83
#22: Players Born 1983-84
#23: Players Born 1984-85
#24: Players Born 1985-86
#25: Players Born 1961-62
Runoff #1: Players Born 1961-68
Runoff #2: Players Born 1969-77
Runoff #3: Players Born 1978-86
Runoff #4: Players Born 1961-73
Runoff #5: Players Born 1974-86
We get a lot of it here regarding active players: “Is so-and-so a future hall of famer?” It’s usually some young guy who just had his first good year, or someone in his prime who had a career year, or some older guy who has a chance to compile impressive career totals. It often just amounts to so much noise. This project aims to take a systematic approach to the question.
The first thing to determine is the number of players elected to the Hall each year. (There are a number of ways to calculate this, all arriving at a similar number. I faced the issue eight years ago in this article “An Open Letter to the Hall of Fame“) Looking at the long stretch of history, all players born from 1880 to 1940. Including Negro leaguers, the Hall has enshrined 158 players born in that 61-year span, or 2.6 per year. They will no doubt add to that number, with Minoso, Hodges, Oliva and Kaat being the prime candidates.
We’ll use 2.6 as our target to elect. There is a good argument to be made that it should be higher than this, given the game’s expansion and development. However, there is not yet any indication that the HOF or their electors intend to acknowledge these facts and do anything to expand the number elected in the future. So we’ll stick with the historical standard.
I decided it will be my approach to group players by year of birth. We will start by looking at players born in 1962. The oldest player active in 2012 (Moyer) was born in 1962; also relevant, no likely HOFers were born in 1961. Only two HOFers were born after 1960 (Larkin and Alomar).
I’ll post a series of polls. Each will contain ten or more candidates born in a two-year span. The first poll will include the best players born in 1962-63. Vote for the (usually) five players you think are most likely to be elected to the HOF by the BBWAAA. We’ll move forward in time from there, with the next poll being players born in 1963-64, then 1964-65, and so on. A player who finishes in the top five in both polls he appears in will be considered “elected”.(*) Occasionally we’ll vote for four or six, depending on a subjective assessment of the quality of candidates.
This will leave us a few players short of 2.6 per year. We will have a few runoff polls to determine the remaining choices.
The first few elections will cover players that we’ve debated for years; the stars of the “steroids era“. As we go forward, the choices become more speculative. Theories about which types of players are likely to enjoy longevity will become important as we move through players born in the 1980‘s.
Remember, we are trying to predict which players the HOF will elect, not which players you think are most deserving. That is, vote for the guys you think will be most favored by the HOF voters. Put yourself in the position of predicting what the Hall will do in the next 50 years. Which players from this generation will be in the HOF in 2063? Will some sort of PED ban still be in force, or will perspective among the voters evolve to the point where that becomes unimportant? I think that being a part of this project will help to sharpen your thinking on the issue of who is and who is not likely to make the HOF.
Any ideas you may have to enhance this project are welcome. I’ll get the first poll up in a couple days. I think we can move pretty quickly, posting one or two polls in a week, leaving them open for about 4 weeks. I’m planning to go as far as 1986, making 25 polls before the runoffs.
*Here are the players from each year that we think will eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame:
1961(1) - Don Mattingly
1962(1) - Roger Clemens
1963(4) - Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff
1964(2) - Barry Larkin, Barry Bonds
1965(1) - Craig Biggio
1966(4) - Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker
1967(3) - John Smoltz, Trevor Hoffman, Omar Vizquel
1968(8) - Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa
1969(2) - Ken Griffey, Jr., Mariano Rivera
1970(2) - Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds
1971(2) - Pedro Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez
1972(3) - Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Andy Pettitte
1973(2) - Ichiro Suzuki, Todd Helton
1974(1) - Derek Jeter
1975(3) - Alex Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Scott Rolen
1976(2) - Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko
1977(3) - Roy Halladay, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones
1978(2) - Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins
1979(2) - Adrian Beltre, Ryan Howard
1980(3) - Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira
1981(1) - Josh Hamilton
1982(2) - Robinson Cano, David Wright
1983(5) - Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun
1984(2) - Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp
1985(1) - Evan Longoria
1986(1) - Felix Hernandez
Links to elections
#1: Players Born 1962-63
#2: Players Born 1963-64
#3: Players Born 1964-65
#4: Players Born 1965-66
#5: Players Born 1966-67
#6: Players Born 1967-68
#7: Players Born 1968-69
#8: Players Born 1969-70
#9: Players Born 1970-71
#10: Players Born 1971-72
#11: Players Born 1972-73
#12: Players Born 1973-74
#13: Players Born 1974-75
#14: Players Born 1975-76
#15: Players Born 1976-77
#16: Players Born 1977-78
#17: Players Born 1978-79
#18: Players Born 1979-80
#19: Players Born 1980-81
#20: Players Born 1981-82
#21: Players Born 1982-83
#22: Players Born 1983-84
#23: Players Born 1984-85
#24: Players Born 1985-86
#25: Players Born 1961-62
Runoff #1: Players Born 1961-68
Runoff #2: Players Born 1969-77
Runoff #3: Players Born 1978-86
Runoff #4: Players Born 1961-73
Runoff #5: Players Born 1974-86
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