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Future Hall of Famers #2: Players Born 1963-64

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  • Future Hall of Famers #2: Players Born 1963-64

    This is the second poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --Barry Larkin is not included in the poll since he is already in the HOF.
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
    Code:
               Player     WAR/pos   Born    PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm
             Barry Bonds	158.0	1964	12606	 17	705	340
            Barry Larkin	67.3	1964	 9057	  8	346	120
         Rafael Palmeiro	66.2	1964	12046	  5	395	178
          Edgar Martinez	64.4	1963	 8674	 10	305	132
            Mark McGwire	58.7	1963	 7660	  8	342	170
              Will Clark	53.2	1964	 8283	  3	331	 84
            Fred McGriff	48.1	1963	10174	  4	341	100
             Ellis Burks	46.3	1964	 8177	  3	260	 52
              Mark Grace	42.9	1964	 9290	  2	294	 60
            Jose Canseco	39.2	1964	 8129	  3	272	103
             Paul ONeill	35.2	1963	 8329	  2	259	 71
           Randy Johnson	96.3	1963	4135.1	 11	408	331
              David Cone	58.8	1963	2898.2	  7	256	103
         Bret Saberhagen	56.0	1964	2562.2	  5	241	 70
             David Wells	49.2	1963	3439.0	  3	263	 88
            Kenny Rogers	46.5	1964	3302.2	  5	258	 66
           Dwight Gooden	50.1	1964	2800.2	  2	234	 88
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1963 and 1964.
    130
    Barry Bonds
    19.23%
    25
    Ellis Burks
    0.00%
    0
    Jose Canseco
    0.77%
    1
    Will Clark
    3.08%
    4
    David Cone
    3.08%
    4
    Dwight Gooden
    0.00%
    0
    Mark Grace
    0.00%
    0
    Randy Johnson
    19.23%
    25
    Edgar Martinez
    17.69%
    23
    Fred McGriff
    11.54%
    15
    Mark McGwire
    15.38%
    20
    Paul O'Neill
    0.77%
    1
    Rafael Palmeiro
    9.23%
    12
    Kenny Rogers
    0.00%
    0
    Bret Saberhagen
    0.00%
    0
    David Wells
    0.00%
    0
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    Johnson and Martinez, likely enshrinees, were the easy ones. Will Clark, borderline but untainted, was number three.

    After that it got a bit tougher, but I figure eventually voters will see sense re: Bonds- whatever anyone's suspicions may be, PEDs didn't get him those multiple Gold Gloves or over 500 SB. He's in the top ten players of all-time pretty undisputably, so I got to figure he's got a shot eventually.

    Fifth choice was a bit tougher. I considered McGwire and Palmeiro, but decided their testimony will remain in voters' memory for too long, and they don't quite have the edge Bonds has in undeniable talent. Paul O'Neill's got an outside shot based on being a Yankee at the right time, but in the end I went with McGriff who seems to have the best combination of stats and good will of those left.
    Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

    1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
      Code:
                 Player     WAR/pos   Born    PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm
              Jose Canseco	39.2	1964	 8129	  3	272	103
      Well... WAR 39.1 really...

      Comment


      • #4
        Ranked in order:

        1. Randy Johnson--No brainer who should sail right in.
        2. Edgar Martinez--it may take 15 years, but I believe that being one of the best hitters ever to play the game is too much to overlook, even if most of that production came as a DH.
        3. Barry Bonds--Even with the PEDs issues, what Bonds did in baseball is too much to overlook. I can see him eventually getting in.
        4. Mark McGwire--Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds' inductions will pave the way for McGwire, who had Kiner like HR/PA power.
        5. David Cone--In Cone's career, he won a CY Young Award and had a reputation for being a big game pitcher for the traditionalists. His 58.2 WAR and 35.6 WAA along with a solid best 5 and best 7 being at or above All Star level put him in the company of Wes Ferrell and a few others who had HOF caliber years, but fell just shy of 200 wins. I believe that as time progresses, SABRmetrics will become a bigger factor in determining HOF voting which will tip the scales in Cone's favor. It may take 75 years, but he will get there.
        --------------------------------------------
        6. Will Clark--I believe that he may eventually gain HOF election as he had a borderline HOF career.
        7. Fred McGriff--Lesser than Clark, but still someone who would not bother me as an inductee. His reputation as being a "clean" player in a PEDs era may help him get there.
        8. Rafael Palmiero--Never thought of him as a HOFer until later in his career. PEDs helped extend his career numbers and milestone benchmarks. He is a PEDs poster boy.
        9. Jose Canseco--He's one of those "what ifs". The bash brothers were a major force on the As. Canseco's career came up short even with no PEDs discount.
        10. Doc Gooden--The reason why pitchers are babied in MLB today. His first 3 seasons were amazing.
        11. Bret Saberhagen--Inconsistency hurts him.
        12. Paul O'Neil--One of the leaders on the Yankees during one of their most successful eras. That gives his career a boost, but he still comes up short.
        13. David Wells--Great big game pitcher, but his career comes up way short.
        14. Mark Grace--Too many first basemen with better careers waiting in line ahead of him. Pass.
        15. Ellis Burks--Good player. Nothing more.
        16. Kenny Rogers--Couldn't handle the pressure in big spots. a #2-#3 starter at his best. Pass.
        Last edited by jjpm74; 11-09-2012, 07:30 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          --Several of these guys are holdovers from the first election and I have nothing to add on them. I do think Palmerio will be an eventual lock, unless somehow the PED boycott holds forever. All the 3,000 hit and 500 HR guys are in (less McGwire on the latter and I'm assuming he gets in once the anti-PED line gets broken). Palmerio is both. What is that club - Mays, Aaron, Murray and Palmerio?

          Comment


          • #6
            My ranking of selected players:

            1. Barry Bonds - WILL MAKE IT
            2. Randy Johnson - WILL MAKE IT
            3. Mark McGwire - WILL MAKE IT
            4. Rafael Palmeiro - WILL MAKE IT, BUT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST OUT OF THE TOP 5 (could have gone with McGriff)
            5. Edgar Martinez - WILL MAKE IT
            6. Barry Larkin - already in
            7. Fred McGriff - will make it, but not among the Top 5, #6
            8. Will Clark
            9. Bobby Bonilla
            ------HOF-------
            10. David Cone
            11. Jose Canseco - I will go out on limb and say he will have the best run at making the Hall without actually making it
            12. Roberto Hernandez
            ------Tolerable----
            13. Bret Saberhagen
            14. Dwight Gooden
            15. Mark Grace
            16. David Wells
            17. Mike Jackson
            18. Paul O'Neill
            19. Ellis Burks
            20. Kenny Rogers

            Comment


            • #7
              I think McGriff will start off much stronger, but then plateau . Palmiero starts off weak, but, in the long run, catches up with McGriff and perhaps eclipses McGriff for a time. It's kind of a toss up for me.

              Will Clark will continue to be overlooked, even 30-50 from now, but Canseco will have some sort of cult resurgence for a minute in the future.

              Comment


              • #8
                --If Canseco had been a guy who was campaigning against steroids from the start - or even a reformed user who spoke out for the good of the game - that backstory added to his on field career would make him a viable candidate for me. Instead he is a guy who introduced many players to steroids, used his entire career and then ratted out his friends for a buck when he couldn't play anymore. Hall of Shame for him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                  16. Kenny Rogers--Couldn't handle the pressure in big spots. a #2-#3 starter at his best. Pass.
                  I am not promoting Roger's HOF selection or anything, but a #2-3 starter does not win 200+ games with four All Star Appearacnes, 45+ WAR, 3,300 IP, and an ERA+ over 105. That is a #2 starter in an average year and a #1 starter during his best years.

                  As far as pressure, his postseason ERA is better than his regular season ERA. He was pretty bad in 1996 and 1999, but was spectacular in 2006.

                  but yeah, still towards the bottom of this list.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by dgarza View Post
                    11. Jose Canseco - I will go out on limb and say he will have the best run at making the Hall without actually making it
                    Really? I was thinking that he may not make it past the first ballot.
                    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                      Really? I was thinking that he may not make it past the first ballot.
                      Remeber, this is long term. We are looking beyond 15 years. There's always the VC. That's where many of the PED players will get their support from in the future, I believe.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by dgarza View Post
                        Remeber, this is long term. We are looking beyond 15 years. There's always the VC. That's where many of the PED players will get their support from in the future, I believe.
                        Unless there is a major paradigm shift with the VC, I don't see many of these guys making it. Some really, really good players that have all of the "good-ole boy, back when the game was great" narratives surrounding them can't get the VC's favor now. Even if the PEd issue becomes an eventual non-issue, I don't think Canseco will get that close anyway.
                        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                          Unless there is a major paradigm shift with the VC, .
                          There will be a significant paradigm shift. There will be a majority of new faces voting in 2035 than in 2012.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                            I am not promoting Roger's HOF selection or anything, but a #2-3 starter does not win 200+ games with four All Star Appearacnes, 45+ WAR, 3,300 IP, and an ERA+ over 105. That is a #2 starter in an average year and a #1 starter during his best years.

                            As far as pressure, his postseason ERA is better than his regular season ERA. He was pretty bad in 1996 and 1999, but was spectacular in 2006.

                            but yeah, still towards the bottom of this list.
                            Rogers was terrible in 1996 and 1999 in the playoffs and okay in 2003. His only good post season run came in 2006.

                            Looking at his season by season breakdown, it looks like he could have been a #1 starter 3-5 years, a #2 starter 5-7 years and a #3 or 4 starter 8-12 years. It depends on the team, of course. The only year he received any attention was in 2006 where he was a CY Young candidate (#5) and an MVP candidate (#26). 3 of his 4 All Star appearances came late in his career. Rogers was a late bloomer with a long career.
                            Last edited by jjpm74; 11-09-2012, 07:41 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Oh, and in 2035, the VC will be comprised in part of ex-players........ who were PED users.....

                              (Just a prediction on my part.)

                              Comment

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