Tweet
This is the second poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--Barry Larkin is not included in the poll since he is already in the HOF.
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1963 and 1964.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--Barry Larkin is not included in the poll since he is already in the HOF.
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm
Barry Bonds 158.0 1964 12606 17 705 340
Barry Larkin 67.3 1964 9057 8 346 120
Rafael Palmeiro 66.2 1964 12046 5 395 178
Edgar Martinez 64.4 1963 8674 10 305 132
Mark McGwire 58.7 1963 7660 8 342 170
Will Clark 53.2 1964 8283 3 331 84
Fred McGriff 48.1 1963 10174 4 341 100
Ellis Burks 46.3 1964 8177 3 260 52
Mark Grace 42.9 1964 9290 2 294 60
Jose Canseco 39.2 1964 8129 3 272 103
Paul ONeill 35.2 1963 8329 2 259 71
Randy Johnson 96.3 1963 4135.1 11 408 331
David Cone 58.8 1963 2898.2 7 256 103
Bret Saberhagen 56.0 1964 2562.2 5 241 70
David Wells 49.2 1963 3439.0 3 263 88
Kenny Rogers 46.5 1964 3302.2 5 258 66
Dwight Gooden 50.1 1964 2800.2 2 234 88
Comment