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Future Hall of Famers #3: Players Born 1964-65

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  • Future Hall of Famers #3: Players Born 1964-65

    Note that we are only voting for four this time, because the new class (born in 1965) is much weaker than those dropping off (born in 1963).

    This is the third poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --Barry Larkin is not included in the poll since he is already in the HOF.
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
    --Orlando Hernandez is a bit of a wild card. It's possible that El Duque's case will be viewed very favorably by future generations.
    Code:
               Player     WAR/pos	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS    oHOFm
          Barry Bonds	158.0	1964	12606	 17	705	340
         Barry Larkin	67.3	1964	 9057	  8	346	120
      Rafael Palmeiro	66.2	1964	12046	  5	395	178
         Craig Biggio	62.6	1965	12504	  5	428	169
           Will Clark	53.2	1964	 8283	  3	331	 84
          Ellis Burks	46.3	1964	 8177  	  3	260	 52
        Matt Williams	43.5	1965	 7595	  5	241	 70
           Mark Grace	42.9	1964	 9290	  2	294	 60
         Steve Finley	40.4	1965	10460	  4	297	 72
         Jose Canseco	39.2	1964	 8129	  3	272	103
          Kevin Brown	64.3	1965	3256.1	  5	301	 93
      Bret Saberhagen	56.0	1964	2562.2	  5	241	 70
         Kenny Rogers	46.5	1964	3302.2	  5	258	 66
        Dwight Gooden	50.1	1964	2800.2	  2	234	 88
    Orlando Hernandez	21.5	1965	1314.2	  0	104	 24
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1964 and 1965.
    92
    Craig Biggio
    26.09%
    24
    Barry Bonds
    25.00%
    23
    Kevin Brown
    6.52%
    6
    Ellis Burks
    0.00%
    0
    Jose Canseco
    3.26%
    3
    Will Clark
    13.04%
    12
    Steve Finley
    1.09%
    1
    Dwight Gooden
    2.17%
    2
    Mark Grace
    0.00%
    0
    Orlando Hernandez
    0.00%
    0
    Rafael Palmeiro
    20.65%
    19
    Kenny Rogers
    0.00%
    0
    Bret Saberhagen
    1.09%
    1
    Matt Williams
    1.09%
    1
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    My ranking of selected players:

    1. Barry Bonds - WILL MAKE IT
    2. Rafael Palmeiro - WILL MAKE IT
    3. Craig Biggio - WILL MAKE IT
    4. Barry Larkin - already in
    5. Will Clark - if we had a 5th choice this round, I would say Clark will get 5th most support
    6. Kevin Brown
    ------HOF-------
    7. Jose Canseco - I will go out on limb and say that ultimately Canseco will get more support in the distant future, but he still won't make the Hall
    8. Roberto Hernandez
    9. Matt Williams
    ------Tolerable----
    10. Bret Saberhagen
    11. Dwight Gooden
    12. Greg Swindell
    13. Mark Grace
    14. Mike Jackson
    15. Steve Finley
    16. Jay Bell
    17. Ellis Burks
    18. Kenny Rogers
    19. Ruben Sierra
    20. Orlando Hernandez
    Last edited by dgarza; 11-12-2012, 09:05 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      C. Biggio
      B. Bonds
      --No Brainers---
      W. Clark
      K. Brown
      ---HOF Line-----
      D. Gooden
      B. Saberhagen
      -----Tolerable--
      R. Palmeiro
      S. Finley
      M Grace
      M Williams
      -----Not Close------
      The rest
      ------No Way------

      Comment


      • #4
        Biggio's the no-brainer.

        Bonds should be, though I guess he'll be punished for the PED stuff for a while, anyway. It'll be a crime if he's not first-ballot, but there's a good chance.

        Will Clark is borderline, but he's got a shot.

        Then it gets tough. Under protest, I took Palmeiro, since he does at least have the numbers, though his hypocritical testimony will hurt him (as it should).
        Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

        1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

        Comment


        • #5
          Biggio is in. I don't care what people think of his tail end. The guy was the best 2B and leadoff hitter in the NL and probably in all of baseball in his prime. He was no mere compilers nearly annually leading the league in H, R or 2B (SB?) during that time along with winning GGs and Silver Sluggers.
          Bonds-
          Palmeiro - i think he is Mark Grace lite or x2 sans pharmacology but in 50 years he may just be seen a line of big numbers
          Gooden - I don't think anyone else goes but if anyone does Gooden has those few magic years.

          Will Clark might be next most worthy but that wasn't the question as I perceived it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Palmeiro's strong showing here sets up quite the race in election #2.

            McGriff and Palmeiro are neck-and-neck for the final Money Spot in election #2. Since McGriff is headed for a Money Spot in election #1 and Palmeiro is doing likewise here in #3, whichever one of them gets that 5th spot in election #2 is "elected" in this project. The loser in that race is relegated to the Run-off pool, where we will have a final say on him along with other near-misses after the 26 regular elections.

            This is exactly the sort of thing I wanted to see happen in this project, two borderline guys fighting for a spot. For myself, I went back and forth between them before deciding the HOF voters seem to be slightly more supportive of McGriff, and that this will probably continue.
            Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

            Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

            Comment


            • #7
              Biggio
              Bonds
              Clark
              Brown
              Palmeiro
              “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

              "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
                Palmeiro's strong showing here sets up quite the race in election #2.

                McGriff and Palmeiro are neck-and-neck for the final Money Spot in election #2. Since McGriff is headed for a Money Spot in election #1 and Palmeiro is doing likewise here in #3, whichever one of them gets that 5th spot in election #2 is "elected" in this project. The loser in that race is relegated to the Run-off pool, where we will have a final say on him along with other near-misses after the 26 regular elections.

                This is exactly the sort of thing I wanted to see happen in this project, two borderline guys fighting for a spot. For myself, I went back and forth between them before deciding the HOF voters seem to be slightly more supportive of McGriff, and that this will probably continue.
                Yeah, but in this case, you'd probably want to double check how many 5th votes Palmeiro is getting here since many people are voting for more than 4 players. Will Clark is showing strong here, too. At the moment, just 3 shy of Palmeiro.
                Last edited by dgarza; 11-13-2012, 11:05 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  PS I'm sorry but I voted for 5, not 4. I would have dropped Clark
                  “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                  "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    With less than three days until this poll closes, the results seem pretty well settled.
                    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                    Comment

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