Tweet
This is the fourth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
--Orlando Hernandez is a bit of a wild card. It's possible that El Duque's case will be viewed very favorably by future generations.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1965 and 1966.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
--Orlando Hernandez is a bit of a wild card. It's possible that El Duque's case will be viewed very favorably by future generations.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm
Larry Walker 69.5 1966 8030 8 311 148
Craig Biggio 62.6 1965 12504 5 428 169
Matt Williams 43.5 1965 7595 5 241 70
Steve Finley 40.4 1965 10460 4 297 72
Albert Belle 36.9 1966 6676 4 243 135
Moises Alou 36.7 1966 7913 2 277 80
Greg Maddux 101.6 1966 5008.1 11 498 254
Curt Schilling 76.1 1966 3261.0 11 315 171
Tom Glavine 76.8 1966 4413.1 6 393 176
Kevin Brown 64.3 1965 3256.1 5 301 93
Orlando Hernandez 21.6 1965 1314.2 0 104 24
Unfortunately, the poll feature here at BBF doesn't have the capability of setting a maximum number; it's either vote for one or vote for multiple.
Comment