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Future Hall of Famers #4: Players Born 1965-66

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  • Future Hall of Famers #4: Players Born 1965-66

    This is the fourth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. There is unfortunately, no player here whose new HOFm total has been published in the Handbooks.
    --Orlando Hernandez is a bit of a wild card. It's possible that El Duque's case will be viewed very favorably by future generations.
    Code:
               Player	WAR/pos	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	WS	oHOFm
           Larry Walker	69.5	1966	 8030	 8	311	148
           Craig Biggio	62.6	1965	12504	 5	428	169
          Matt Williams	43.5	1965	 7595	 5	241	 70
           Steve Finley	40.4	1965	10460	 4	297	 72
           Albert Belle	36.9	1966	 6676	 4	243	135
            Moises Alou	36.7	1966	 7913	 2	277	 80
            Greg Maddux	101.6	1966	5008.1	11	498	254
         Curt Schilling	76.1	1966	3261.0	11	315	171
            Tom Glavine	76.8	1966	4413.1	 6	393	176
            Kevin Brown	64.3	1965	3256.1	 5	301	 93
      Orlando Hernandez	21.6	1965	1314.2	 0	104	 24
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1965 and 1966.
    136
    Moises Alou
    0.74%
    1
    Albert Belle
    0.74%
    1
    Craig Biggio
    19.85%
    27
    Kevin Brown
    0.74%
    1
    Steve Finley
    0.00%
    0
    Tom Glavine
    19.85%
    27
    Orlando Hernandez
    0.00%
    0
    Greg Maddux
    19.85%
    27
    Curt Schilling
    19.85%
    27
    Larry Walker
    18.38%
    25
    Matt Williams
    0.00%
    0
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    My ranking of selected players:

    1. Greg Maddux - WILL MAKE IT
    2. Craig Biggio - WILL MAKE IT
    3. Tom Glavine - WILL MAKE IT
    4. Curt Schilling - WILL MAKE IT
    5. Larry Walker - WILL MAKE IT
    6. Albert Belle - I believe he will eventually make it in the distant future, but he's not among the Top 5 listed here
    7. Kevin Brown
    8. John Wetteland
    ------HOF-------
    9. Matt Williams
    ------Tolerable----
    10. Greg Swindell
    11. Moises Alou
    12. Steve Finley
    13. Jay Bell
    14. Jose Mesa
    15. Benito Santiago
    16. David Justice
    17. Tim Wakefield
    18. Orlando Hernandez

    Comment


    • #3
      Wow, for the first time four no-brainers.

      Maddux, Glavine and Biggio are cinches without question, unless any new suspicions arise, which seems rather unlikely.

      Then "Bloody Sock" Schilling, who may not be first ballot, but will certainly get in.

      After that it's a toss-up between Walker and Belle. I'd take Belle, personally, but Walker's altitudinal advantages won't weigh as heavily as Belle's personality ones will in the end.

      Just curious- there are five people with 9 votes each as of now, but two additional votes. How did that happen? Was somebody able to vote for more than their allotted 5?
      Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

      1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by toomanyhatz View Post
        Just curious- there are five people with 9 votes each as of now, but two additional votes. How did that happen? Was somebody able to vote for more than their allotted 5?
        Yeah, one voter must have seven fingers on one hand. Unfortunately, the poll feature here at BBF doesn't have the capability of setting a maximum number; it's either vote for one or vote for multiple.
        Last edited by Freakshow; 11-18-2012, 08:39 PM.
        Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

        Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

        Comment


        • #5
          Biggio
          Glavine
          Maddux
          Walker
          Schilling
          “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

          "Fill in any figure you want for that boy [Mantle]. Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

          Comment


          • #6
            Biggio
            Glavine
            Maddux
            Schilling
            Walker

            Comment


            • #7
              Well. Not a lot of suspense in this one, eh?
              Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

              1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by dgarza View Post
                5. Larry Walker - WILL MAKE IT
                I hope you are right, but I am not that confident. No major milestones and the Coors stigma will be tough to overcome by the writers and the Vet committee.
                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                  I hope you are right, but I am not that confident. No major milestones and the Coors stigma will be tough to overcome by the writers and the Vet committee.
                  I actually don't think Walker will make it, and it has a lot to do with the Coors stigma, and of course no major milestones. Helton will suffer the same fate.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Double post
                    Last edited by fenrir; 11-21-2012, 04:08 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by toomanyhatz View Post
                      Well. Not a lot of suspense in this one, eh?
                      Yeah, with four days until the poll closes, this one is cut and dried.
                      Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                      Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Three are 100% certainty guys:
                        Maddux- first ballot, near 100%
                        Glavine- may or may not be first ballot, but in quickly
                        Biggio- same as Glavine

                        Schilling is a near 100% probability guy- actually, probably a 100%er.

                        Walker is the fifth most likely of the group, but he's far from a certainty. As mentioned, Coors, the milestone curse, and lack of signature moments to point to. I'd put his chances at around 50%.

                        Kevin Brown, Matt Williams, and Albert Belle are longshots.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I voted for Maddux, Glavine, Biggio, Walker and Schilling.

                          Maddux, Glavine and Biggio are locks, but since I had to pick two more, I went with Walker (who may have a shot) and Schilling (who has no business even being considered, but for some reason is adored by many).

                          Comment

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