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Future Hall of Famers #5: Players Born 1966-67 (vote for 6)

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  • Future Hall of Famers #5: Players Born 1966-67 (vote for 6)

    Note that we are voting for six this time, because the new class (born in 1967) is much stronger than those dropping off (born in 1965).

    This is the fifth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the six (6) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. Totals for Vizquel and Hoffman have been published in the Handbooks.
    --Omar Vizquel was the second oldest player active in 2012.
    Code:
                Player   WAR/pos    Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
          Larry Walker	69.5	1966	 8030	 8	311	148	
          Kenny Lofton	64.9	1967	 9235	 7	288	 91	
         Robin Ventura	52.1	1967	 8271	 6	272	 34	
         Luis Gonzalez	48.0	1967	10531	 3	318	103	
          Omar Vizquel	40.5	1967	12013	 1	282	120	 48
          Albert Belle	36.9	1966	 6676	 4	243	135	
           Moises Alou	36.7	1966	 7913	 2	277	 80	
           Greg Maddux	101.6	1966	5008.1	11	498	254	
        Curt Schilling	76.1	1966	3261.0	11	315	171	
           Tom Glavine	76.8	1966	4413.1	 6	393	176	
           John Smoltz	65.9	1967	3473.0	 5	361	167	
          Kevin Appier	51.5	1967	2595.1	 5	236	 32	
        Trevor Hoffman	27.0	1967	1089.1	 0	235	176	112
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1966 and 1967.
    158
    Moises Alou
    0.63%
    1
    Kevin Appier
    0.00%
    0
    Albert Belle
    1.27%
    2
    Tom Glavine
    17.09%
    27
    Luis Gonzalez
    0.63%
    1
    Trevor Hoffman
    13.29%
    21
    Kenny Lofton
    1.27%
    2
    Greg Maddux
    17.72%
    28
    Curt Schilling
    16.46%
    26
    John Smoltz
    15.19%
    24
    Robin Ventura
    0.00%
    0
    Omar Vizquel
    5.70%
    9
    Larry Walker
    10.76%
    17
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    Glavine and Maddux are the sure things, and Smoltz has a good shot. Greatest starting rotation ever? Hoffman will go in for sure too, though it's debatable whether it's deserved. I'm going to guess most people here would say no. Schilling's a pretty sure thing as well.

    Once again it comes down to Belle vs. Walker. Not sure either of them are likely, but Walker's the more likely of the two (though I probably prefer Belle by a small margin).
    Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

    1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

    Comment


    • #3
      Glavine
      Maddux
      Walker
      Smoltz
      Lofton
      Schilling
      “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

      "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

      Comment


      • #4
        My ranking of selected players:

        1. Greg Maddux - WILL MAKE IT
        3. Tom Glavine - WILL MAKE IT
        3. Trevor Hoffman - WILL MAKE IT - will take some time, at least as long as it took Gossage, but probably longer
        4. John Smoltz - WILL MAKE IT
        5. Curt Schilling - WILL MAKE IT
        6. Larry Walker - WILL MAKE IT
        7. Albert Belle - I believe he will eventually make it in the distant future, but voters are holding grudges against him now, so he's not among the Top 6 vote getters listed here
        8. Tom Gordon
        9. John Wetteland
        ------HOF---------
        10. Luis Gonzalez
        ------Tolerable----
        11. Kenny Lofton
        12. Moises Alou
        13. Robin Ventura
        14. Omar Vizquel - I really have a strong feeling he'll make the Hall someday, but when I don't know.... He'll at least have a significant run for the Hall...
        15. Mo Vaughn
        16. Jose Mesa
        17. Vinny Castilla
        18. Kevin Appier
        19. David Justice
        20. Tim Wakefield

        My 6th spot was a battle among Walker, Belle, & Vizquel.

        And I really, really wanted to vote for Belle in one of these polls. He gets stuck with a boom of great players born the same years. Guess I'll have to wait for the runoff polls...
        Last edited by dgarza; 11-23-2012, 07:16 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Tom Glavine
          Greg Maddux
          Curt Schilling
          John Smoltz
          Omar Vizquel
          Larry Walker

          I feel that Trevor Hoffman will also make it and I would rank Vizquel well out of my personal HoF. Unfortunately, the way the media (the ones who vote) keep referring to him as a future HoFer, he'll probably sail in ahead of the much more worthy Alan Trammell.I would personally vote in Robin Ventura, but I don't think he'll ever make it. John Wetteland had a great run and I wouldn't be bothered at all if he was eventually elected.

          Comment


          • #6
            Tom Glavine
            Greg Maddux
            Curt Schilling
            John Smoltz
            Trevor Hoffman
            Omar Vizquel

            I'd really prefer to put Belle and Walker in the HOF before even thinking about putting in the last two guys on my list. Ventura should probably go in before them as well. But since there is a distinction between who I think actually belongs and who will eventually go in (which is what this thread's all about), then this is how it stands for me. Belle will not go in because of his surliness and early decline, Walker will not go in due to "The Coor's Effect" and lack of playing time, and Ventura seems to have already been forgotten. But IMHO, I think all three of them still deserve a HOF plaque in addition to the first four that I've listed.
            "Age is a question of mind over matter--if you don't mind, it doesn't matter."
            -Satchel Paige

            Comment


            • #7
              I think Vizquel makes it due to the writers seem to love him.

              Maddux
              Glavine
              Smoltz
              Schilling
              Hoffman......These guys should make it pretty easy and I like Belle and Walker better but I think the writers will put these guys in before them.
              "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

              "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

              Comment


              • #8
                Since it is most likely I went
                Glavine
                Hoffman
                Maddux
                Schilling
                Smoltz
                Vizquel

                I think Vizquel would be an awful choice but he seems to have his backers based on the GGs, ESPN clips and career hit numbers by playing forever. He is a cut below Aparicio and probably at best Maranville's equal. He did not have the peak of Rizzuto or even Travis Jackson. This would make him the frontrunner for worst SS in the HOF and one that future generations might call the ESPN higlight clip HOFers.
                Hoffman - I am so meh on the one inning closers but many voters may just be gaga over the total saves for reasons beyond my comprehension.
                Walker and Lofton both would be far better choices, at least they played like HOFers for stretches or all of their careers.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by PVNICK View Post

                  I think Vizquel would be an awful choice but he seems to have his backers based on the GGs, ESPN clips and career hit numbers by playing forever. He is a cut below Aparicio and probably at best Maranville's equal. He did not have the peak of Rizzuto or even Travis Jackson. This would make him the frontrunner for worst SS in the HOF and one that future generations might call the ESPN higlight clip HOFers.
                  Another SS who garnered a good amount of support was Maury Wills. I have them grouped in the same SS bracket.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    About three days until this poll closes out. Speak now, or forever hold your peace.
                    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                    Comment

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