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Note that we are voting for six this time, because the new class (born in 1967) is much stronger than those dropping off (born in 1965).
This is the fifth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the six (6) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. Totals for Vizquel and Hoffman have been published in the Handbooks.
--Omar Vizquel was the second oldest player active in 2012.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1966 and 1967.
This is the fifth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the six (6) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like McGwire, Palmeiro, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election. Totals for Vizquel and Hoffman have been published in the Handbooks.
--Omar Vizquel was the second oldest player active in 2012.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Larry Walker 69.5 1966 8030 8 311 148
Kenny Lofton 64.9 1967 9235 7 288 91
Robin Ventura 52.1 1967 8271 6 272 34
Luis Gonzalez 48.0 1967 10531 3 318 103
Omar Vizquel 40.5 1967 12013 1 282 120 48
Albert Belle 36.9 1966 6676 4 243 135
Moises Alou 36.7 1966 7913 2 277 80
Greg Maddux 101.6 1966 5008.1 11 498 254
Curt Schilling 76.1 1966 3261.0 11 315 171
Tom Glavine 76.8 1966 4413.1 6 393 176
John Smoltz 65.9 1967 3473.0 5 361 167
Kevin Appier 51.5 1967 2595.1 5 236 32
Trevor Hoffman 27.0 1967 1089.1 0 235 176 112
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