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Note that we are voting for eight this time because the new class (born in 1968) is the best we'll see in this project, possibly the best in history.
This is the sixth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the eight (8) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--Roberto Alomar is already in the Hall so he is not included in the poll.
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Omar Vizquel was the second oldest player active in 2012.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1967 and 1968.
This is the sixth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the eight (8) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--Roberto Alomar is already in the Hall so he is not included in the poll.
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Omar Vizquel was the second oldest player active in 2012.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Jeff Bagwell 76.8 1968 9431 11 388 150 107
Frank Thomas 69.8 1968 10075 8 405 194 121
Kenny Lofton 64.9 1967 9235 7 288 91
Roberto Alomar 63.1 1968 10400 6 376 194 105
Mike Piazza 56.5 1968 7745 6 325 207 120
Gary Sheffield 56.1 1968 10947 4 430 158 101
Sammy Sosa 54.8 1968 9896 7 322 202 100
Jeff Kent 53.9 1968 9537 3 339 122 77
John Olerud 53.5 1968 9063 5 301 68 59
Robin Ventura 52.1 1967 8271 6 272 34
Luis Gonzalez 48.0 1967 10531 3 318 103
Bernie Williams 45.9 1968 9053 6 311 134 83
Chuck Knoblauch 42.0 1968 7387 4 231 68
Omar Vizquel 40.5 1967 12013 1 282 120 48
Mike Mussina 78.2 1968 3562.2 10 338 121 60
John Smoltz 65.9 1967 3473.0 5 361 167
Kevin Appier 51.5 1967 2595.1 5 236 32
Trevor Hoffman 27.0 1967 1089.1 0 235 176 112
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