How Long Does It Take To Make The HOF?

[dgarza]

I have included 208 players who have been elected at their respective times as players. This leaves out players who were primarily elected as Negro Leaguers, but I am including Clark Griffith, since I believe he was originally elected as a player and since I am concerned with voting patterns at the respective times of election, which may have had different mindsets than we subsequently had. There are 1 or 2 outliers, such as Hugh Jennings, who came back to play in “cameo” roles, but I am taking all dates at face value. And I also understand that the voting process did take time to evolve and was not consistent throughout the Hall’s history, but that cannot be helped.

I just wanted to see generally how long it has taken for players to be elected in different eras.
When we say here at BBF that so-and-so will or will not be elected, how long of a chance are we really giving them?

I understand that the book is not closed on any era, so these numbers should not be expected to remain static moving forward.

The average HOFer has been inducted 24 years after his final season.
The quickest took 0 years, Lou Gehrig.
The longest wait was 101 years, Bid McPhee.

For players who began their career after the 1st HOF vote, 1937 & onward, they have averaged 13 years after final season to be inducted; ostensibly, approx. on their 8th time on the ballot.
The quickest took 1 year, Roberto Clemente.
The longest wait was 59 years, Joe Gordon.

For players who began their career before the 1st HOF vote, 1936 & previous, they have averaged 33 years after final season to be inducted; ostensibly, via the VC, as expected.
The quickest took 0 years, Lou Gehrig.
The longest wait was 101 years, Bid McPhee.

Players who debuted in the 1870s or earlier, they have averaged 53 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 41 years, Jim O’Rourke, Dan Brouthers.
The longest wait was 73 years, Pud Galvin.

Players who debuted in the 1880s, they have averaged 64 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 39 years, Hugh Duffy.
The longest wait was 101 years, Bid McPhee.

Players who debuted in the 1890s, they have averaged 40 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 19 years, Honus Wagner.
The longest wait was 85 years, Vic Willis.

Players who debuted in the 1900s, they have averaged 28 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 8 years, Ty Cobb.
The longest wait was 68 years, Addie Joss.

Players who debuted in the 1910s, they have averaged 25 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 1 year, Babe Ruth.
The longest wait was 46 years, Ross Youngs.

Players who debuted in the 1920s, they have averaged 22 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 0 years, Lou Gehrig.
The longest wait was 52 years, Tony Lazzeri.

Players who debuted in the 1930s, they have averaged 23 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 4 years, Joe DiMaggio.
The longest wait was 59 years, Joe Gordon.

Players who debuted in the 1940s, they have averaged 20 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 6 years, Stan Musial, Jackie Robinson.
The longest wait was 39, Larry Doby.

Players who debuted in the 1950s, they have averaged 10 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 1 year, Roberto Clemente.
The longest wait was 29, Bill Mazeroski.

Players who debuted in the 1960s, they have averaged 9 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 6 years, 11 players.
The longest wait was 38, Ron Santo.

Players who debuted in the 1970s, they have averaged 10 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 6 years, 9 players.
The longest wait was 20, Jim Rice.

Players who debuted in the 1980s, they have averaged 7 years after final season to be inducted.
The quickest took 6 years, 4 players.
The longest wait was 8, Ryne Sandberg, Barry Larkin.

HOFers inducted within 9 years after final season = 36.1%
HOFers inducted within 19 years after final season = 49.5%
HOFers inducted within 29 years after final season = 63.0%
HOFers inducted within 39 years after final season = 81.3%
HOFers inducted within 49 years after final season = 90.4%
HOFers inducted within 59 years after final season = 92.8%
HOFers inducted within 69 years after final season = 95.7%
HOFers inducted within 79 years after final season = 98.1%
HOFers inducted within 89 years after final season = 99.5%
HOFers inducted within 99 years after final season = 99.5%
HOFers inducted within 109 years after final season = 100.0%

[Nerdlinger]

As someone who is well-acquainted with working hard on finding and presenting data and then having no one respond after I post it, I want to thank you for taking the time and effort to research this and share it with us. If Dahlen gets the VC's nod in this upcoming election, as I hope he will, he'll just barely surpass McPhee's record by 1 year. White or Mullane would smash the record, though.

[dgarza]

As someone who is well-acquainted with working hard on finding and presenting data and then having no one respond after I post it, I want to thank you for taking the time and effort to research this and share it with us. If Dahlen gets the VC's nod in this upcoming election, as I hope he will, he'll just barely surpass McPhee's record by 1 year. White or Mullane would smash the record, though.

Ha Ha, that's actually why I wanted to post this BEFORE this coming Winter.

[SamtheBravesFan]

That is a very interesting chart. It doss seem that flaws are forgotten as time moves forward and that if you're "marginal", you don't have to wait much the longer we go into Hall of Fame voting.

[Jackaroo Dave]

That is a very interesting chart. It doss seem that flaws are forgotten as time moves forward and that if you're "marginal", you don't have to wait much the longer we go into Hall of Fame voting.

Echoing the applause of other posters, would it be possible with a few keystrokes to generate the numbers with waiting time beginning with the first election for those whose careers ended earlier? (I suppose for parity's sake, five years before the first election would be more consistent.)

If not, please don't bother, but if it's just a matter of adding a column to a spread sheet, that might make it easier to compare old timers to players who started in the twenties, say, or later. Of course that would bring its own problems.

Thanks again for your hard work.

[dgarza]

Echoing the applause of other posters, would it be possible with a few keystrokes to generate the numbers with waiting time beginning with the first election for those whose careers ended earlier? (I suppose for parity's sake, five years before the first election would be more consistent.)

Well, it gets muddy because there was no wait period in the early years of voting. Active players were eligible at the time as well, so old-timers had more competition for votes then than they would later on, so it would be natural that their wait might be longer.

[JR Hart]

Great research this forum is awesome

[dgarza]

HOFers inducted within 49 years after final season = 90.4%

So does this suggest that any player who retired at the end of 1963 or earlier and is NOT in the HOF has the odds stacked against them that they will ever make the Hall?

[PVNICK]

So does this suggest that any player who retired at the end of 1963 or earlier and is NOT in the HOF has the odds stacked against them that they will ever make the Hall?

Certainly. But I might put an asterisk on that as far as 19th Century-Dead ball players go. Perhaps Dahlen or White will go in before the decade is out. I mean if Bid McPhee and George Davis can go in, both of whom I never heard of until James and or the Total baseball book came out, then it is possible.

As for the guys in between, you could argue the viable candidates are almost all in. Off the top of my head I have supported Minoso and Pierce (if they qualify). Hodges and Allie Reynolds have come close to getting in. Any other possibilities out there?

[dgarza]

Certainly. But I might put an asterisk on that as far as 19th Century-Dead ball players go. Perhaps Dahlen or White will go in before the decade is out. I mean if Bid McPhee and George Davis can go in, both of whom I never heard of until James and or the Total baseball book came out, then it is possible.

Yes, certainly players can still make the Hall after all these years, but I would say that if it takes a player over 100 years to get in, then, yes, the odd ARE stacked against you.

As for the guys in between, you could argue the viable candidates are almost all in. Off the top of my head I have supported Minoso and Pierce (if they qualify). Hodges and Allie Reynolds have come close to getting in. Any other possibilities out there?

Sherry Magee, Bob Johnson, several 3B - Hack, Bob Elliott, Groh -, Urban Shocker, Wes Ferrell, Tommy Bridges.

However, Pierce and Minoso didn't retire until 1964 (or Minoso in 1976 or 1980), so they are kind of in a grey area.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Nifty stuff. I wonder what the standard deviation is