JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System) HOF

[jjpm74]

I had some free time on my hands, so I used JAWS to mimic the number of players in the HOF by position.

A few notes:

*JAWS lists Edgar Martinez and Paul Molitor as 3B. Since I am trying to mimic the players in by position, both were moved to DH. This puts Edgar Martinez out of the JAWS HOF where he would be in the JAWS HOF is left at 3B.

*I went with the JAWS lists and only included players who have been retired long enough to appear on a ballot (including this year's eligible players). I will double check for accidental omissions/typos later today.

* The HOF reflects today's inductee player.

*With the exception of DH, I went with the position a player was listed under on the JAWS list and the number of players at a given position per JAWS.

*This is not my personal HOF. It is an interpretation of JAWS.

Enjoy.

C (14):
Johnny Bench
Yogi Berra
Gary Carter
Mickey Cochrane
Bill Dickey
Buck Ewing
Carlton Fisk
Bill Freehan
Gabby Hartnett
Thurman Munson
Mike Piazza
Ted Simmons
Gene Tenace
Joe Torre

Not Yet Eligible:

Joe Mauer
Ivan Rodriguez

Just Missed:

Charlie Bennett
Roger Bresnahan
Ernie Lombardi
Deacon White

1B ( 18):

Cap Anson
Jeff Bagwell
Dan Brouthers
Will Clark
Roger Connor
Jimmie Foxx
Lou Gehrig
Hank Greenberg
Keith Hernandez
Harmon Killebrew
Willie McCovey
Mark McGwire
Johnny Mize
Eddie Murray
John Olerud
Rafael Palmeiro
George Sisler
Bill Terry

Not Yet Eligible:

Lance Berkman
Jason Giambi
Todd Helton
Albert Pujols
Jim Thome

Just missed:

Jake Beckley
Norm Cash
Fred McGriff
Tony Perez

2B (19):

Roberto Alomar
Craig Biggio
Rod Carew
Eddie Collins
Bobby Doerr
Nellie Fox
Frankie Frisch
Joe Gordon
Bobby Grich
Billy Herman
Rogers Hornsby
Charlie Gehringer
Nap Lajoie
Joe Morgan
Tony Phillips
Willie Randolph
Jackie Robinson
Ryne Sandberg
Lou Whitaker

Not Yet Eligible:

Jeff Kent
Chase Utley

Just Missed:

Cupid Childs
Johnny Evers
Chuck Knoblauch
Tony Lazzeri

SS (21):

Luis Aparicio
Luke Appling
Ernie Banks
Lou Boudreau
Bert Campaneris
Joe Cronin
Bill Dahlen
George Davis
Jim Fregosi
Jack Glasscock
Barry Larkin
Pee Wee Reese
Cal Ripken
Joe Sewell
Ozzie Smith
Joe Tinker
Alan Trammell
Arky Vaughan
Honus Wagner
Bobby Wallace
Robin Yount

Not Yet Eligible:

Nomar Garciaparra
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez

Just Missed:

Dave Bancroft
Art Fletcher
Travis Jackson
Hughie Jennings

3B (12):

Dick Allen
Frank Baker
Sal Bando
Buddy Bell
Wade Boggs
Ken Boyer
George Brett
Eddie Mathews
Graig Nettles
Brooks Robinson
Ron Santo
Mike Schmidt

Not Yet Eligible:

Adrian Beltre
Chipper Jones
Scott Rolen

Just missed:

Ron Cey
Jimmy Collins
Darrell Evans
Robin Ventura

LF (19):

Barry Bonds
Jesse Burkett
Fred Clarke
Jose Cruz
Ed Delahanty
Goose Goslin
Rickey Henderson
Bob Johnson
Ralph Kiner
Sherry Magee
Joe Medwick
Tim Raines
Pete Rose
Al Simmons
Willie Stargell
Zack Wheat
Billy Williams
Ted Williams
Carl Yaztrzemski

Not Yet Eligible:

Manny Ramirez

Just Missed:

Joe Kelley
Minnie Minoso
Jim Rice
Bobby Veach

CF (18):

Richie Ashburn
Max Carey
Cesar Cedeno
Ty Cobb
Willie Davis
Andre Dawson
Joe DiMaggio
Larry Doby
Chet Lemon
Billy Hamilton
Fred Lynn
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Vada Pinson
Kirby Puckett
Duke Snider
Tris Speaker
Jimmy Wynn

Not Yet Eligible:

Carlos Beltran
Johnny Damon
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey
Andruw Jones
Kenny Lofton

Just Missed:

Earl Averill
Brett Butler
Dale Murphy
Bernie Williams

RF (24):

Hank Aaron
Bobby Bonds
Jack Clark
Roberto Clemente
Sam Crawford
Kiki Cuyler
Dwight Evans
Elmer Flick
Tony Gwynn
Harry Heilmann
Al Kaline
Willie Keeler
Joe Jackson
Reggie Jackson
Stan Musial
Mel Ott
Frank Robinson
Babe Ruth
Enos Slaughter
Reggie Smith
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
Paul Waner
Dave Winfield

Not Yet Eligible:

Bobby Abreu
Brian Giles
Vladimir Guerrero
Gary Sheffield
Ichiro Suzuki

Just Missed:

Harry Hooper
Chuck Klein
Tony Oliva
Sam Rice

SP (58):

Pete Alexander
Bert Blyleven
Tommy Bond
Kevin Brown
Charlie Buffinton
Jim Bunning
Steve Carlton
Eddie Cicotte
John Clarkson
Roger Clemens
David Cone
Stan Coveleski
Don Drysdale
Red Faber
Bob Feller
Wes Ferrell
Pud Galvin
Bob Gibson
Clark Griffith
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Fergie Jenkins
Walter Johnson
Tim Keefe
Ted Lyons
Juan Marichal
Bobby Mathews
Christy Matthewson
Jim McCormick
Joe McGinnity
Tony Mullane
Hal Newhouser
Phil Niekro
Kid Nichols
Jim Palmer
Gaylord Perry
Eddie Plank
Old Hoss Radbourn
Rick Reuschel
Robin Roberts
Red Ruffing
Amos Rusie
Nolan Ryan
Brett Saberhagen
Curt Schilling
Tom Seaver
Urban Shocker
Warren Spahn
Al Spalding
Dave Stieb
Luis Tiant
Dazzy Vance
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Mickey Welch
Jim Whitney
Vic Willis
Cy Young

Not Yet Eligible:

Tom Glavine
Roy Halladay
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
John Smoltz

Just Missed:

Kevin Appier
Ted Breitenstein
Mordecai Brown
Wilbur Cooper
Chuck Finley
Silver King
Don Sutton
George Uhle
Bucky Walters
Early Wynn

RP (5):

Dennis Eckersley
Rich Gossage
John Hiller
Bobby Shantz
Hoyt Wilhelm

Not Yet Eligible:

Mariano Rivera
Tom Gordon

Just missed:

Firpo Marberry
Ellis Kinder
Turk Farrell
Greg Swindell

DH (1):

Paul Molitor

Not Yet Eligible:

Frank Thomas

Just Missed:

Edgar Martinez

[dgarza]

It looks like even JAWS short changes 3B. Only 12 (14 with Molitor & Edgar)?

[jjpm74]

It looks like even JAWS short changes 3B. Only 12 (14 with Molitor & Edgar)?

What I did was go by the number of 3B in the actual HOF (as listed on each JAWS position page).

[Yankillaz]

How about creating a ranking that inludes Jay Jaffe's three variables: WAR, WAR7 and JAWS?

[dgarza]

What I did was go by the number of 3B in the actual HOF (as listed on each JAWS position page).

Oh, I see. You (the Hall) created the cutoff, not JAWS.

[Bothrops Atrox]

How about creating a ranking that includes Jay Jaffe's three variables: WAR, WAR7 and JAWS?

JAWS is the mean of the player's WAR and WAR7 (sum of top seven WAR seasons).

[jjpm74]

JAWS is the mean of the player's WAR and WAR7 (sum of top seven WAR seasons).

The weird thing about JAWS seems to be how pitchers fare. The system as it is calculated seems to favor long career pitchers over all peak pitchers. Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean; who are not seen as HOF mistakes by the vast majority of people here, ends up at #81, #89, and #97. Of couse, like every variation of WAR, it also overvalues 19th century pitchers. I doubt Ted Breitenstein is in anyone's HOF.

[Bothrops Atrox]

The weird thing about JAWS seems to be how pitchers fare. The system as it is calculated seems to favor long career pitchers over all peak pitchers. Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean; who are not seen as HOF mistakes by the vast majority of people here, ends up at #81, #89, and #97. Of couse, like every variation of WAR, it also overvalues 19th century pitchers. I doubt Ted Breitenstein is in anyone's HOF.

Ford's WAR is lower than expected because he started fewr games per season than the other top starters of his era. His WAA holds up a lot better. Koufax and Dean of course both had extremely short careers and it is hard to even rack up huge WAR scores with only 5-6 really good seasons. They do have very good WAR7 scores, of course. Koufax is also hurt by park his poor hitting, which is being counted in this case.

JAWS (and what Alex D. is doing with his HOS) is putting more of a emphasis on peak than WAR alone, but playing time is still a big component here, and I am not sure that is wrong.

[BigRon]

[QUOTE=jjpm74;2092507]

CF (18):

Richie Ashburn
Max Carey
Cesar Cedeno
Ty Cobb
Willie Davis
Andre Dawson
Larry Doby
Chet Lemon
Billy Hamilton
Fred Lynn
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Dale Murphy
Vada Pinson
Kirby Puckett
Tris Speaker
Bernie Williams
Jimmy Wynn

Not Yet Eligible:

Carlos Beltran
Johnny Damon
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey
Andruw Jones
Kenny Lofton

Just Missed:

Earl Averill
Ellis Burks
Brett Butler
Devon White


Is this list correct? Duke Snider had higher career WAR than Ashburn: 63.1 to 60.2- and he had higher WAR7: 48.1 to 42.9. Why would Ashburn (and possibly other CFers) be in and Snider not? Is there some element here that I don't understand or am missing?

[dgarza]

The weird thing about JAWS seems to be how pitchers fare. The system as it is calculated seems to favor long career pitchers over all peak pitchers. Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean; who are not seen as HOF mistakes by the vast majority of people here, ends up at #81, #89, and #97. Of couse, like every variation of WAR, it also overvalues 19th century pitchers. I doubt Ted Breitenstein is in anyone's HOF.

It's because a lot of what WAR measures has nothing to do with HOF-worthiness (at least for many people). And since JWAR ONLY deals with WAR, it's a narrow and flawed HOF-worthiness metric.

Fair or not, generally, nobody cares about pitchers' batting and defense when it comes to the HOF. Pitchers are judged solely on their pitching. No one is going to knock Koufax's HOF chances because of his .097 AVG. And I don't think they should. But JWAR does as equally as it praises his pitching. Koufax and Orel Hershiser have an 8.8 difference in batting/defensive WAR. This shows up big time in their JWARs. But should it be that big a factor in HOF decisions?

Same with poor defense at "non-defensive" positions. Honestly, my HOF perspective of Dave Winfield is not going to change much because of his -23.7 dWAR. I can forgive that when considering the HOF for a player like Winfield. We don't always weigh poor defense the same as we weigh great defense when it comes to the HOF. It's more of case by cases basis of what is important in player's case.

Career WAR is a cumulative number and JWAR is an average of cumulative numbers. Neither really tells the story.

[jjpm74]

Is this list correct? Duke Snider had higher career WAR than Ashburn: 63.1 to 60.2- and he had higher WAR7: 48.1 to 42.9. Why would Ashburn (and possibly other CFers) be in and Snider not? Is there some element here that I don't understand or am missing?

You didn't miss anything. Snider and DiMaggio were missing, but are ranked way up there. I haven't had a chance ti edit for accidental omissions yet. I corrected that mistake.

[Bothrops Atrox]

It's because a lot of what WAR measures has nothing to do with HOF-worthiness (at least for many people). And since JWAR ONLY deals with WAR, it's a narrow and flawed HOF-worthiness metric.

Koufax and Orel Hershiser have an 8.8 difference in batting/defensive WAR. This shows up big time in their JWARs. But should it be that big a factor in HOF decisions?

.

Did it help or hurt their teams win or lose more games? Than of course it should be considered for the HOF. Now Koufax gets in anyway, and it doesn't help Hershiser to get in, but there are some guys who the batting issue certainly is a make or break issue (Ferrell, Ruffing, Wynn,). It will be a smallish factor for most, but still a factor can can and should be looked at, at least a little bit.

If there is a legitimate 8 win difference between the two in terms of batting, why shouldn't JAWS capture it? Should JAWS not care about a baseball player's total contribution to wins and losses?

And bad defense hurts a team as much as good defense helps a team. Why should we only consider good defense? I don't follow that logic at all. People that look at WAR and JAWS aren't the "many people" who ignore things like positional importance and defense. They are created for people who do - so any attempt to alter these metrics to fit the mainstream defeats the whole point. WAR, JAWS, etc. are for the people who want to consider every piece of data in HOF voting. The "many people" who do not care about position or pitcher batting or defense aren't looking at it anyway.

JAWS, WAR, whatever does what it intends to do. If one doesn't like it, great. But if somebody wants defense and pitcher offense included in their HOF criteria, it is not nearly as narrow and flawed as many more mainstream methods out there. I'd personally say that leaving out key run prevention/producing elements is much more narrow and flawed than including everything, even if the factors are smaller.

[Bothrops Atrox]

For the record - I am not saying that JAWS is a great HOF tool. Nor do I think it is flawless (why an arbitrary 7 year peak? Why not 6? 8?) I am only saying that I do not think including poor defense of corner OFers or the inclusion of pitcher batting is why it is flawed.

[dgarza]

there are some guys who the batting issue certainly is a make or break issue (Ferrell, Ruffing, Wynn,).

I honestly don't think in the real world that batting has anything to do with these players being in or out of the Hall. Ruffing and Wynn are in purely because of their pitching. They would be in if they played in the AL in the 80s when the DH did all the batting.

And if batting WAS a make or break issue, Ferrell would already be in or at least he would have gotten more votes in the recent election.

[dgarza]

If there is a legitimate 8 win difference between the two in terms of batting, why shouldn't JAWS capture it? Should JAWS not care about a baseball player's total contribution to wins and losses?

Sure JWAR should capture it if you are using JWAR to measure game value only. That's what WAR does and only claims to do. But JWAR was not created to measure game value only. It was created to measure HOF-worthiness, which is a different beast.