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  • JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System) HOF

    I had some free time on my hands, so I used JAWS to mimic the number of players in the HOF by position.

    A few notes:

    *JAWS lists Edgar Martinez and Paul Molitor as 3B. Since I am trying to mimic the players in by position, both were moved to DH. This puts Edgar Martinez out of the JAWS HOF where he would be in the JAWS HOF is left at 3B.

    *I went with the JAWS lists and only included players who have been retired long enough to appear on a ballot (including this year's eligible players). I will double check for accidental omissions/typos later today.

    * The HOF reflects today's inductee player.

    *With the exception of DH, I went with the position a player was listed under on the JAWS list and the number of players at a given position per JAWS.

    *This is not my personal HOF. It is an interpretation of JAWS.

    Enjoy.

    C (14):
    Johnny Bench
    Yogi Berra
    Gary Carter
    Mickey Cochrane
    Bill Dickey
    Buck Ewing
    Carlton Fisk
    Bill Freehan
    Gabby Hartnett
    Thurman Munson
    Mike Piazza
    Ted Simmons
    Gene Tenace
    Joe Torre

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Joe Mauer
    Ivan Rodriguez

    Just Missed:

    Charlie Bennett
    Roger Bresnahan
    Ernie Lombardi
    Deacon White

    1B ( 18):

    Cap Anson
    Jeff Bagwell
    Dan Brouthers
    Will Clark
    Roger Connor
    Jimmie Foxx
    Lou Gehrig
    Hank Greenberg
    Keith Hernandez
    Harmon Killebrew
    Willie McCovey
    Mark McGwire
    Johnny Mize
    Eddie Murray
    John Olerud
    Rafael Palmeiro
    George Sisler
    Bill Terry

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Lance Berkman
    Jason Giambi
    Todd Helton
    Albert Pujols
    Jim Thome

    Just missed:

    Jake Beckley
    Norm Cash
    Fred McGriff
    Tony Perez

    2B (19):

    Roberto Alomar
    Craig Biggio
    Rod Carew
    Eddie Collins
    Bobby Doerr
    Nellie Fox
    Frankie Frisch
    Joe Gordon
    Bobby Grich
    Billy Herman
    Rogers Hornsby
    Charlie Gehringer
    Nap Lajoie
    Joe Morgan
    Tony Phillips
    Willie Randolph
    Jackie Robinson
    Ryne Sandberg
    Lou Whitaker

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Jeff Kent
    Chase Utley

    Just Missed:

    Cupid Childs
    Johnny Evers
    Chuck Knoblauch
    Tony Lazzeri

    SS (21):

    Luis Aparicio
    Luke Appling
    Ernie Banks
    Lou Boudreau
    Bert Campaneris
    Joe Cronin
    Bill Dahlen
    George Davis
    Jim Fregosi
    Jack Glasscock
    Barry Larkin
    Pee Wee Reese
    Cal Ripken
    Joe Sewell
    Ozzie Smith
    Joe Tinker
    Alan Trammell
    Arky Vaughan
    Honus Wagner
    Bobby Wallace
    Robin Yount

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Nomar Garciaparra
    Derek Jeter
    Alex Rodriguez

    Just Missed:

    Dave Bancroft
    Art Fletcher
    Travis Jackson
    Hughie Jennings

    3B (12):

    Dick Allen
    Frank Baker
    Sal Bando
    Buddy Bell
    Wade Boggs
    Ken Boyer
    George Brett
    Eddie Mathews
    Graig Nettles
    Brooks Robinson
    Ron Santo
    Mike Schmidt

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Adrian Beltre
    Chipper Jones
    Scott Rolen

    Just missed:

    Ron Cey
    Jimmy Collins
    Darrell Evans
    Robin Ventura

    LF (19):

    Barry Bonds
    Jesse Burkett
    Fred Clarke
    Jose Cruz
    Ed Delahanty
    Goose Goslin
    Rickey Henderson
    Bob Johnson
    Ralph Kiner
    Sherry Magee
    Joe Medwick
    Tim Raines
    Pete Rose
    Al Simmons
    Willie Stargell
    Zack Wheat
    Billy Williams
    Ted Williams
    Carl Yaztrzemski

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Manny Ramirez

    Just Missed:

    Joe Kelley
    Minnie Minoso
    Jim Rice
    Bobby Veach

    CF (18):

    Richie Ashburn
    Max Carey
    Cesar Cedeno
    Ty Cobb
    Willie Davis
    Andre Dawson
    Joe DiMaggio
    Larry Doby
    Chet Lemon
    Billy Hamilton
    Fred Lynn
    Mickey Mantle
    Willie Mays
    Vada Pinson
    Kirby Puckett
    Duke Snider
    Tris Speaker
    Jimmy Wynn

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Carlos Beltran
    Johnny Damon
    Jim Edmonds
    Ken Griffey
    Andruw Jones
    Kenny Lofton

    Just Missed:

    Earl Averill
    Brett Butler
    Dale Murphy
    Bernie Williams

    RF (24):

    Hank Aaron
    Bobby Bonds
    Jack Clark
    Roberto Clemente
    Sam Crawford
    Kiki Cuyler
    Dwight Evans
    Elmer Flick
    Tony Gwynn
    Harry Heilmann
    Al Kaline
    Willie Keeler
    Joe Jackson
    Reggie Jackson
    Stan Musial
    Mel Ott
    Frank Robinson
    Babe Ruth
    Enos Slaughter
    Reggie Smith
    Sammy Sosa
    Larry Walker
    Paul Waner
    Dave Winfield

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Bobby Abreu
    Brian Giles
    Vladimir Guerrero
    Gary Sheffield
    Ichiro Suzuki

    Just Missed:

    Harry Hooper
    Chuck Klein
    Tony Oliva
    Sam Rice

    SP (58):

    Pete Alexander
    Bert Blyleven
    Tommy Bond
    Kevin Brown
    Charlie Buffinton
    Jim Bunning
    Steve Carlton
    Eddie Cicotte
    John Clarkson
    Roger Clemens
    David Cone
    Stan Coveleski
    Don Drysdale
    Red Faber
    Bob Feller
    Wes Ferrell
    Pud Galvin
    Bob Gibson
    Clark Griffith
    Lefty Grove
    Carl Hubbell
    Fergie Jenkins
    Walter Johnson
    Tim Keefe
    Ted Lyons
    Juan Marichal
    Bobby Mathews
    Christy Matthewson
    Jim McCormick
    Joe McGinnity
    Tony Mullane
    Hal Newhouser
    Phil Niekro
    Kid Nichols
    Jim Palmer
    Gaylord Perry
    Eddie Plank
    Old Hoss Radbourn
    Rick Reuschel
    Robin Roberts
    Red Ruffing
    Amos Rusie
    Nolan Ryan
    Brett Saberhagen
    Curt Schilling
    Tom Seaver
    Urban Shocker
    Warren Spahn
    Al Spalding
    Dave Stieb
    Luis Tiant
    Dazzy Vance
    Rube Waddell
    Ed Walsh
    Mickey Welch
    Jim Whitney
    Vic Willis
    Cy Young

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Tom Glavine
    Roy Halladay
    Randy Johnson
    Greg Maddux
    Pedro Martinez
    Mike Mussina
    John Smoltz

    Just Missed:

    Kevin Appier
    Ted Breitenstein
    Mordecai Brown
    Wilbur Cooper
    Chuck Finley
    Silver King
    Don Sutton
    George Uhle
    Bucky Walters
    Early Wynn

    RP (5):

    Dennis Eckersley
    Rich Gossage
    John Hiller
    Bobby Shantz
    Hoyt Wilhelm

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Mariano Rivera
    Tom Gordon

    Just missed:

    Firpo Marberry
    Ellis Kinder
    Turk Farrell
    Greg Swindell

    DH (1):

    Paul Molitor

    Not Yet Eligible:

    Frank Thomas

    Just Missed:

    Edgar Martinez
    Last edited by jjpm74; 12-03-2012, 03:23 PM.

  • #2
    It looks like even JAWS short changes 3B. Only 12 (14 with Molitor & Edgar)?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by dgarza View Post
      It looks like even JAWS short changes 3B. Only 12 (14 with Molitor & Edgar)?
      What I did was go by the number of 3B in the actual HOF (as listed on each JAWS position page).

      Comment


      • #4
        How about creating a ranking that inludes Jay Jaffe's three variables: WAR, WAR7 and JAWS?
        "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
        George Brett

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
          What I did was go by the number of 3B in the actual HOF (as listed on each JAWS position page).
          Oh, I see. You (the Hall) created the cutoff, not JAWS.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by yankillaz View Post
            How about creating a ranking that includes Jay Jaffe's three variables: WAR, WAR7 and JAWS?
            JAWS is the mean of the player's WAR and WAR7 (sum of top seven WAR seasons).
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
              JAWS is the mean of the player's WAR and WAR7 (sum of top seven WAR seasons).
              The weird thing about JAWS seems to be how pitchers fare. The system as it is calculated seems to favor long career pitchers over all peak pitchers. Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean; who are not seen as HOF mistakes by the vast majority of people here, ends up at #81, #89, and #97. Of couse, like every variation of WAR, it also overvalues 19th century pitchers. I doubt Ted Breitenstein is in anyone's HOF.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                The weird thing about JAWS seems to be how pitchers fare. The system as it is calculated seems to favor long career pitchers over all peak pitchers. Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean; who are not seen as HOF mistakes by the vast majority of people here, ends up at #81, #89, and #97. Of couse, like every variation of WAR, it also overvalues 19th century pitchers. I doubt Ted Breitenstein is in anyone's HOF.
                Ford's WAR is lower than expected because he started fewr games per season than the other top starters of his era. His WAA holds up a lot better. Koufax and Dean of course both had extremely short careers and it is hard to even rack up huge WAR scores with only 5-6 really good seasons. They do have very good WAR7 scores, of course. Koufax is also hurt by park his poor hitting, which is being counted in this case.

                JAWS (and what Alex D. is doing with his HOS) is putting more of a emphasis on peak than WAR alone, but playing time is still a big component here, and I am not sure that is wrong.
                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                Comment


                • #9
                  [QUOTE=jjpm74;2092507]

                  CF (18):

                  Richie Ashburn
                  Max Carey
                  Cesar Cedeno
                  Ty Cobb
                  Willie Davis
                  Andre Dawson
                  Larry Doby
                  Chet Lemon
                  Billy Hamilton
                  Fred Lynn
                  Mickey Mantle
                  Willie Mays
                  Dale Murphy
                  Vada Pinson
                  Kirby Puckett
                  Tris Speaker
                  Bernie Williams
                  Jimmy Wynn

                  Not Yet Eligible:

                  Carlos Beltran
                  Johnny Damon
                  Jim Edmonds
                  Ken Griffey
                  Andruw Jones
                  Kenny Lofton

                  Just Missed:

                  Earl Averill
                  Ellis Burks
                  Brett Butler
                  Devon White


                  Is this list correct? Duke Snider had higher career WAR than Ashburn: 63.1 to 60.2- and he had higher WAR7: 48.1 to 42.9. Why would Ashburn (and possibly other CFers) be in and Snider not? Is there some element here that I don't understand or am missing?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                    The weird thing about JAWS seems to be how pitchers fare. The system as it is calculated seems to favor long career pitchers over all peak pitchers. Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Dizzy Dean; who are not seen as HOF mistakes by the vast majority of people here, ends up at #81, #89, and #97. Of couse, like every variation of WAR, it also overvalues 19th century pitchers. I doubt Ted Breitenstein is in anyone's HOF.
                    It's because a lot of what WAR measures has nothing to do with HOF-worthiness (at least for many people). And since JWAR ONLY deals with WAR, it's a narrow and flawed HOF-worthiness metric.

                    Fair or not, generally, nobody cares about pitchers' batting and defense when it comes to the HOF. Pitchers are judged solely on their pitching. No one is going to knock Koufax's HOF chances because of his .097 AVG. And I don't think they should. But JWAR does as equally as it praises his pitching. Koufax and Orel Hershiser have an 8.8 difference in batting/defensive WAR. This shows up big time in their JWARs. But should it be that big a factor in HOF decisions?

                    Same with poor defense at "non-defensive" positions. Honestly, my HOF perspective of Dave Winfield is not going to change much because of his -23.7 dWAR. I can forgive that when considering the HOF for a player like Winfield. We don't always weigh poor defense the same as we weigh great defense when it comes to the HOF. It's more of case by cases basis of what is important in player's case.

                    Career WAR is a cumulative number and JWAR is an average of cumulative numbers. Neither really tells the story.
                    Last edited by dgarza; 12-03-2012, 03:15 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BigRon View Post
                      Is this list correct? Duke Snider had higher career WAR than Ashburn: 63.1 to 60.2- and he had higher WAR7: 48.1 to 42.9. Why would Ashburn (and possibly other CFers) be in and Snider not? Is there some element here that I don't understand or am missing?
                      You didn't miss anything. Snider and DiMaggio were missing, but are ranked way up there. I haven't had a chance ti edit for accidental omissions yet. I corrected that mistake.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by dgarza View Post
                        It's because a lot of what WAR measures has nothing to do with HOF-worthiness (at least for many people). And since JWAR ONLY deals with WAR, it's a narrow and flawed HOF-worthiness metric.

                        Koufax and Orel Hershiser have an 8.8 difference in batting/defensive WAR. This shows up big time in their JWARs. But should it be that big a factor in HOF decisions?

                        .
                        Did it help or hurt their teams win or lose more games? Than of course it should be considered for the HOF. Now Koufax gets in anyway, and it doesn't help Hershiser to get in, but there are some guys who the batting issue certainly is a make or break issue (Ferrell, Ruffing, Wynn,). It will be a smallish factor for most, but still a factor can can and should be looked at, at least a little bit.

                        If there is a legitimate 8 win difference between the two in terms of batting, why shouldn't JAWS capture it? Should JAWS not care about a baseball player's total contribution to wins and losses?

                        And bad defense hurts a team as much as good defense helps a team. Why should we only consider good defense? I don't follow that logic at all. People that look at WAR and JAWS aren't the "many people" who ignore things like positional importance and defense. They are created for people who do - so any attempt to alter these metrics to fit the mainstream defeats the whole point. WAR, JAWS, etc. are for the people who want to consider every piece of data in HOF voting. The "many people" who do not care about position or pitcher batting or defense aren't looking at it anyway.

                        JAWS, WAR, whatever does what it intends to do. If one doesn't like it, great. But if somebody wants defense and pitcher offense included in their HOF criteria, it is not nearly as narrow and flawed as many more mainstream methods out there. I'd personally say that leaving out key run prevention/producing elements is much more narrow and flawed than including everything, even if the factors are smaller.
                        Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 12-04-2012, 05:33 AM.
                        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          For the record - I am not saying that JAWS is a great HOF tool. Nor do I think it is flawless (why an arbitrary 7 year peak? Why not 6? 8?) I am only saying that I do not think including poor defense of corner OFers or the inclusion of pitcher batting is why it is flawed.
                          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                            there are some guys who the batting issue certainly is a make or break issue (Ferrell, Ruffing, Wynn,).
                            I honestly don't think in the real world that batting has anything to do with these players being in or out of the Hall. Ruffing and Wynn are in purely because of their pitching. They would be in if they played in the AL in the 80s when the DH did all the batting.

                            And if batting WAS a make or break issue, Ferrell would already be in or at least he would have gotten more votes in the recent election.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                              If there is a legitimate 8 win difference between the two in terms of batting, why shouldn't JAWS capture it? Should JAWS not care about a baseball player's total contribution to wins and losses?
                              Sure JWAR should capture it if you are using JWAR to measure game value only. That's what WAR does and only claims to do. But JWAR was not created to measure game value only. It was created to measure HOF-worthiness, which is a different beast.

                              Comment

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