2013 BBWAA vote contest

[jalbright]

Here's the guy on the ballot:

Sandy Alomar Jr.
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Jeff Cirillo
Royce Clayton
Roger Clemens
Jeff Conine
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Ryan Klesko
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jose Mesa
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy (15th election)
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Reggie Sanders
Curt Schilling
Aaron Sele
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Mike Stanton
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Todd Walker
David Wells
Rondell White
Bernie Williams
Woody Williams

You will be asked to take the entire list of candidates and say whether the candidate will be inducted (in), not be elected but stay on the ballot (stay), or be dropped (drop) from the ballot. Scoring will be as follows:

If the player is elected and the prediction is:
correct: add five points
wrong and the prediction was stay: subtract two points
wrong and the prediction was drop: subtract four points

If the player is dropped and the prediction is:
correct: add one point
wrong and the prediction was in: subtract four points
wrong and the prediction was stay: subtract two points

If the player stays on the ballot and the prediction is:
correct: add three points
wrong: subtract two points

Note: Dale Murphy is in the fifteenth year of eligibility and thus will either be elected or drop from the ballot,

I'll include a first tiebreaker of the number of guys correctly picked for induction, a second tiebreaker of the least number of incorrect picks for induction, and a third tiebreaker of the most number of correct picks of stay on the ballot choices.

The only payoff for winning is pride.

[jjpm74]

Sandy Alomar Jr. DROP
Jeff Bagwell STAY
Craig Biggio STAY
Barry Bonds STAY
Jeff Cirillo DROP
Royce Clayton DROP
Roger Clemens STAY
Jeff Conine DROP
Steve Finley DROP
Julio Franco DROP
Shawn Green DROP
Roberto Hernandez DROP
Ryan Klesko DROP
Kenny Lofton STAY
Edgar Martinez STAY
Don Mattingly STAY
Fred McGriff STAY
Mark McGwire STAY
Jose Mesa DROP
Jack Morris IN
Dale Murphy DROP
Rafael Palmeiro STAY
Mike Piazza STAY
Tim Raines STAY
Reggie Sanders DROP
Curt Schilling STAY
Aaron Sele DROP
Lee Smith STAY
Sammy Sosa STAY
Mike Stanton DROP
Alan Trammell STAY
Larry Walker STAY
Todd Walker DROP
David Wells DROP
Rondell White DROP
Bernie Williams STAY
Woody Williams DROP

Good idea! I think what will happen is Jack Morris will be elected and that Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell wait another year and go in together next year. The two I keep going back and forth on are Biggio and Piazza.

[Nerdlinger]

In:

Craig Biggio
Jack Morris (ugh)

Stay:

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Drop:

Sandy Alomar Jr.
Jeff Cirillo
Royce Clayton
Jeff Conine
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Ryan Klesko
Kenny Lofton (sadly, he may be one and done)
Jose Mesa
Dale Murphy (will get more than 5%, though)
Rafael Palmeiro (I'm going out on a limb here)
Reggie Sanders
Aaron Sele
Mike Stanton
Todd Walker
David Wells
Rondell White
Bernie Williams
Woody Williams

[jalbright]

I'm going to add a fourth tiebreaker: one whose prediction was posted/modified the earliest.

[jalbright]

Sandy Alomar Jr. drop
Jeff Bagwell stay
Craig Biggio stay
Barry Bonds stay
Jeff Cirillo drop
Royce Clayton drop
Roger Clemens stay
Jeff Conine drop
Steve Finley drop
Julio Franco stay
Shawn Green drop
Roberto Hernandez drop
Ryan Klesko drop
Kenny Lofton stay
Edgar Martinez stay
Don Mattingly stay
Fred McGriff stay
Mark McGwire stay
Jose Mesa drop
Jack Morris in (I don't like it, but I think this is what the writers will do)
Dale Murphy (15th election) drop
Rafael Palmeiro stay
Mike Piazza in
Tim Raines stay
Reggie Sanders drop
Curt Schilling stay
Aaron Sele drop
Lee Smith stay
Sammy Sosa stay
Mike Stanton drop
Alan Trammell stay
Larry Walker stay
Todd Walker drop
David Wells stay
Rondell White drop
Bernie Williams stay
Woody Williams drop

[Nerdlinger]

For the project, scores of 7.75 or above will be regarded as indicating we believe the individual is worthy of induction. I come up with that number based on 75% 3's (in) and 25% 2's (out), which matches the HOF requirement of 75% of the vote.

I thought this was about likelihood of election rather than worthiness. Morris has a good shot at being elected, but I certainly don't think he's worthy of it.

[jalbright]

I thought this was about likelihood of election rather than worthiness. Morris has a good shot of being elected, but I certainly don't think he's worthy of it.

Posted to the wrong thread. My apologies.

[Biggtone23]

Sandy Alomar Jr. - drop
Jeff Bagwell - In
Craig Biggio - In
Barry Bonds - Stay
Jeff Cirillo - drop
Royce Clayton - drop
Roger Clemens - stay
Jeff Conine - drop
Steve Finley - drop
Julio Franco - drop
Shawn Green - drop
Roberto Hernandez - drop
Ryan Klesko - drop
Kenny Lofton - drop
Edgar Martinez - stay
Don Mattingly - stay
Fred McGriff - stay
Mark McGwire - stay
Jose Mesa - drop
Jack Morris - stay
Dale Murphy (15th election) - drop
Rafael Palmeiro - stay
Mike Piazza - stay
Tim Raines - stay
Reggie Sanders - drop
Curt Schilling - stay
Aaron Sele - drop
Lee Smith - stay
Sammy Sosa - stay
Mike Stanton - drop
Alan Trammell - stay
Larry Walker - stay
Todd Walker - drop
David Wells - drop
Rondell White - drop
Bernie Williams - drop
Woody Williams - drop

[TheMendozaLine]

Sandy Alomar Jr. - Drop
Jeff Bagwell - Stay
Craig Biggio - In
Barry Bonds - In
Jeff Cirillo - Drop
Royce Clayton - Drop
Roger Clemens - In
Jeff Conine - Drop
Steve Finley - Drop
Julio Franco - Drop
Shawn Green - Drop
Roberto Hernandez - Drop
Ryan Klesko - Drop
Kenny Lofton - Stay
Edgar Martinez - Stay
Don Mattingly - Stay
Fred McGriff - Stay
Mark McGwire - Stay
Jose Mesa - Drop
Jack Morris - Stay
Dale Murphy - Drop
Rafael Palmeiro - Stay
Mike Piazza - In
Tim Raines - Stay
Reggie Sanders - Drop
Curt Schilling - Stay
Aaron Sele - Drop
Lee Smith - Stay
Sammy Sosa - Stay
Mike Stanton - Drop
Alan Trammell - Stay
Larry Walker - Stay
Todd Walker - Drop
David Wells - Drop
Rondell White - Drop
Bernie Williams - Stay
Woody Williams - Drop

[hairmetalfreek]

Sandy Alomar Jr. DROP
Jeff Bagwell STAY
Craig Biggio IN
Barry Bonds STAY
Jeff Cirillo DROP
Royce Clayton DROP
Roger Clemens STAY
Jeff Conine DROP
Steve Finley DROP
Julio Franco DROP
Shawn Green DROP
Roberto Hernandez DROP
Ryan Klesko DROP
Kenny Lofton STAY
Edgar Martinez STAY
Don Mattingly STAY
Fred McGriff STAY
Mark McGwire STAY
Jose Mesa DROP
Jack Morris IN
Dale Murphy (15th election) DROP
Rafael Palmeiro STAY
Mike Piazza STAY
Tim Raines STAY
Reggie Sanders STAY
Curt Schilling STAY
Aaron Sele DROP
Lee Smith STAY
Sammy Sosa STAY
Mike Stanton DROP
Alan Trammell STAY
Larry Walker STAY
Todd Walker DROP
David Wells DROP
Rondell White DROP
Bernie Williams DROP
Woody Williams DROP

[NJRob65]

Sandy Alomar Jr.- Drop
Jeff Bagwell- Stay
Craig Biggio- In
Barry Bonds- Stay
Jeff Cirillo- Drop
Royce Clayton- Drop
Roger Clemens- Stay
Jeff Conine- Drop
Steve Finley- Drop
Julio Franco- Drop
Shawn Green- Drop
Roberto Hernandez- Drop
Ryan Kelsko- Drop
Kenny Lofton- Stay
Edgar Martinez- Stay
Don Mattingly- Stay
Fred McGriff- Stay
Mark McGwire- Stay
Jose Mesa- Drop
Jack Morris- Stay
Dale Murphy(eligibility expires)- Drop
Rafael Palmeiro- Stay
Mike Piazza- In
Tim Raines- Stay
Reggie Sanders- Drop
Curt Schilling- Stay
Aaron Sele- Drop
Lee Smith- Stay
Sammy Sosa- Stay
Mike Stanton- Drop
Alan Trammell- Stay
Larry Walker- Stay
Todd Walker- Drop
David Wells- Drop
Rondell White- Drop
Bernie Williams- Stay
Woody Williams- Drop

[John Shoemaker]

In:
nobody

Stay:

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Drop:

Sandy Alomar Jr.
Jeff Cirillo
Royce Clayton
Jeff Conine
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Ryan Klesko
Kenny Lofton
Jose Mesa
Dale Murphy
Reggie Sanders
Aaron Sele
Mike Stanton
Todd Walker
David Wells
Rondell White
Bernie Williams
Woody Williams

[jalbright]

I'll announce the results of all votes/changes made before the announcement at 2 pm EST today shortly after the release of that news.

[jalbright]

Here are the results:

71 John Shoemaker
61 biggtone23
60 jjpm74
56 djc
55 NJRob65
55 hairmetalfreek
49 jalbright
45 TheMendozaLine

John Shoemaker would have been middle of the pack except for his changes of yesterday. He substantially improved his position by the changes. This was within the rules,, but in the future, I think I'll have to make the deadline a week before the announcement to keep someone from at least seeming to benefit from being able to count so many votes.

[jjpm74]

John Shoemaker would have been middle of the pack except for his changes of yesterday. He substantially improved his position by the changes. This was within the rules,, but in the future, I think I'll have to make the deadline a week before the announcement to keep someone from at least seeming to benefit from being able to count so many votes.

How about a BBTF threshold (around 10%) as the cutoff. The cutoff could just be announced by you when you get to it if you do this again next year.