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Future Hall of Famers #7: Players Born 1968-69 (vote for 8)

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  • Future Hall of Famers #7: Players Born 1968-69 (vote for 8)

    Note that we are voting for eight this time because the class born in 1968 is the best we'll see in this project, possibly the best in history.

    This is the seventh poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the eight (8) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --Roberto Alomar is already in the Hall so he is not included in the poll.
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    --Mariano Rivera was the third oldest player active in 2012.
                Player	WAR/pos	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
           Ken Griffey	79.2	1969	11304	10	403	235	114
          Jeff Bagwell	76.8	1968	 9431	11	388	150	107
          Frank Thomas	69.8	1968	10075	 8	405	194	121
           Mike Piazza	56.5	1968	 7745	 6	325	207	120
        Gary Sheffield	56.1	1968	10947	 4	430	158	101
            Sammy Sosa	54.8	1968	 9896	 7	322	202	100
             Jeff Kent	53.9	1968	 9537	 3	339	122	 77
           John Olerud	53.5	1968	 9063	 5	301	 68	 59
       Bernie Williams	45.9	1968	 9053	 6	311	134	 83
       Chuck Knoblauch	42.0	1968	 7387	 4	231	 68	
         Juan Gonzalez	35.1	1969	 7155	 2	234	123	 68
          Mike Mussina	78.2	1968	3562.2	10	338	121	 60
        Mariano Rivera	52.7	1969	1219.2	 1	321	251	154
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1968 and 1969.
    Jeff Bagwell
    Juan Gonzalez
    Ken Griffey, Jr.
    Jeff Kent
    Chuck Knoblauch
    Mike Mussina
    John Olerud
    Mike Piazza
    Mariano Rivera
    Gary Sheffield
    Sammy Sosa
    Frank Thomas
    Bernie Williams
    Other (please specify)

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    Griffey Jr.
    "The first draft of anything is crap." - Ernest Hemingway

    There's no such thing as an ultimate stat.


    • #3
      My ranking of selected players:

      1. Mariano Rivera - WILL MAKE IT
      2. Frank Thomas - WILL MAKE IT
      3. Ken Griffey Jr. - WILL MAKE IT
      4. Jeff Bagwell - WILL MAKE IT
      5. Mike Piazza - WILL MAKE IT
      6. Roberto Alomar - already made it
      7. Gary Sheffield - tough call - looks like an uphill battle right now...
      8. Sammy Sosa - tough call - looks like an uphill battle right now...
      9. Mike Mussina - WILL MAKE IT - but it will not come quick
      10. Jeff Kent - WILL MAKE IT
      11. Bernie Williams - seems like a VC pick at the soonest
      12. Juan Gonzalez
      13. Troy Percival
      14. Robb Nen
      15. John Olerud
      16. Chuck Knoblauch
      17. Bob Wickman
      18. Bret Boone
      19. Rod Beck
      20. Todd Jones

      So torn between Sheffield and Sosa for my 8th spot... I guess I'll go with Sosa...


      • #4
        Griffey and Rivera- unless any suspicions arise- are the sure things. Kent's pretty likely too, as is Mussina. From there it gets tricky, but Thomas is pretty likely too. Other than that I went with Piazza and Bagwell- suspicions not founded enough to keep them out forever, at least at this point- and Williams, who still might be respected enough to make up for the shortness of his career and the way that SABR-type stats are generally unkind to his memory.

        For Sheffield and Sosa it's probably a tough battle, but maybe some day. It's probably deserved in Sheff's case, ultimately. Sosa, I'm not so sure. The HR chase, even if you take the 'roids factor out- pretty unavoidable in his case, but imagine it anyway- pretty much killed every other positive aspect to his game.
        Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

        1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2020


        • #5
          Jeff Bagwell
          Ken Griffey, Jr.
          Jeff Kent
          Mike Piazza
          Mariano Rivera
          Gary Sheffield
          Sammy Sosa
          Frank Thomas

          I feel all of the above MLB players should be elected to the hall based on compiled career numbers but it will be many years before election for half the list.


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