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Note that we are voting for eight this time because the class born in 1968 is the best we'll see in this project, possibly the best in history.
This is the seventh poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the eight (8) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--Roberto Alomar is already in the Hall so he is not included in the poll.
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Mariano Rivera was the third oldest player active in 2012.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1968 and 1969.
This is the seventh poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the eight (8) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--Roberto Alomar is already in the Hall so he is not included in the poll.
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Mariano Rivera was the third oldest player active in 2012.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Ken Griffey 79.2 1969 11304 10 403 235 114
Jeff Bagwell 76.8 1968 9431 11 388 150 107
Frank Thomas 69.8 1968 10075 8 405 194 121
Mike Piazza 56.5 1968 7745 6 325 207 120
Gary Sheffield 56.1 1968 10947 4 430 158 101
Sammy Sosa 54.8 1968 9896 7 322 202 100
Jeff Kent 53.9 1968 9537 3 339 122 77
John Olerud 53.5 1968 9063 5 301 68 59
Bernie Williams 45.9 1968 9053 6 311 134 83
Chuck Knoblauch 42.0 1968 7387 4 231 68
Juan Gonzalez 35.1 1969 7155 2 234 123 68
Mike Mussina 78.2 1968 3562.2 10 338 121 60
Mariano Rivera 52.7 1969 1219.2 1 321 251 154
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