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  • Hall of Stats Questions

    I was curious about how exactly some of the adjustments are made to WAR and WAA in order to calculate the Hall Rating for the Hall of Stats. Hopefully, someone here (hint, hint, Adam) might enlighten me and in doing so perhaps enlighten others.

    From the site:

    Position player WAR is adjusted for schedule length. In this case, a hitter gets more credit for a 3.0 WAR season during a 80-game schedule than he does for a 3.0 WAR season in a 162-game season.

    This same adjustment is not given for pitchers, since shorter schedules allowed pitchers to be used more often. The exception is strike- or war-shortened years (where both pitchers and hitters are given an adjustment for how long the schedule would have been).
    It is important to note that this adjustment is made based on the schedule length and not the number of games the player appeared in. A player who appeared in 120 games of a 162-game schedule does not receive any extra credit.
    Players are not given 100% of the credit for games they did not play. Instead, they are awarded the average of their actual WAR and their projected WAR. This keeps us from over-adjusting for 19th century players.
    While pitching WAR are not adjusted for pre-expansion era season lengths, is all offensive and defensive WAR adjusted regardless of whether or not the player is a pitcher? Say you've got a guy like Monte Ward -- are his oWAR and dWAR adjusted while his pWAR remain unadjusted?

    Catchers receive a generous positional adjustment from WAR. But this adjustment only rewards them for time actually spent on the field. Catchers play fewer games in a season and have shorter careers. Therefore, catchers are given an extra 20% boost by adjWAR. Without this adjustment, there would be very few catchers in the Hall of Stats. And that just wouldn’t be right.
    How would you adjust for players who only played part of their careers as catcher, like Joe Torre? If someone has played, say, 50% of their total games at catcher, do they get a 10% (= 20% * 50%) increase instead?

    Relievers are similar to catchers in that they get a boost from WAR (via the leverage index), but it is not nearly enough to bring their WAR values close to their starting counterparts. I’m actually not sure what type of adjustment relievers should get (if any). Without an adjustment, we would have no relievers in the Hall of Stats. I decided to simply use the same adjustment I used for catchers. This helped Hoyt Wilhelm gain induction while Rich Gossage fell short).
    Similarly, are part-time relievers like Dennis Eckersley given only a fraction of that 20% boost, proportional to what % of games they pitched were in relief?

    In cases where a player’s WAR and WAA are very close to each other, no WAA is counted. The cases where this occurs is where the talent level is low, for example:

    The 1884 Union Association had the lowest talent level of all Major Leagues. For this reason, the league average is essentially replacement level.
    League average for pitchers batting value is also typically at replacement level.
    Exactly how close do a player's WAR and WAA have to be so as not to count WAA? If offensive WAA for pitchers is not counted, how do you handle players who only pitch part-time? I understand the point about the UA, but does someone who, for instance, played in 2012 and had 0.2 WAR and 0.1 WAA, not have his WAA counted?
    *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

  • #2
    While pitching WAR are not adjusted for pre-expansion era season lengths, is all offensive and defensive WAR adjusted regardless of whether or not the player is a pitcher? Say you've got a guy like Monte Ward -- are his oWAR and dWAR adjusted while his pWAR remain unadjusted?
    That is correct. Position player WAR is adjusted while pitching WAR is not.

    How would you adjust for players who only played part of their careers as catcher, like Joe Torre? If someone has played, say, 50% of their total games at catcher, do they get a 10% (= 20% * 50%) increase instead?
    I go in a bit more detail than that—I do it by season. If Torre caught 50% of his games THAT SEASON, then he gets half of the 20% boost. That way, you're giving a boost in context, rather than to the career as a whole.

    Similarly, are part-time relievers like Dennis Eckersley given only a fraction of that 20% boost, proportional to what % of games they pitched were in relief?
    Same as above, it's done by season.

    Exactly how close do a player's WAR and WAA have to be so as not to count WAA? If offensive WAA for pitchers is not counted, how do you handle players who only pitch part-time? I understand the point about the UA, but does someone who, for instance, played in 2012 and had 0.2 WAR and 0.1 WAA, not have his WAA counted?
    Right now, I'm using 0.1 as the "closeness". It's not perfect and I'm trying to think of better ways to handle this.

    Thanks for the interest! Hope this helps.
    The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by adarowski View Post
      I go in a bit more detail than that—I do it by season. If Torre caught 50% of his games THAT SEASON, then he gets half of the 20% boost. That way, you're giving a boost in context, rather than to the career as a whole.
      Do you do a positional adjustment for relievers like you do for catchers? Rick Gossage is one of your near misses. The only people who feel he is not a HOFer are people who feel relievers do not belong in the HOF at all and some raw stats that do not adjust for position/usage which is why I'm curious.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
        Do you do a positional adjustment for relievers like you do for catchers? Rick Gossage is one of your near misses. The only people who feel he is not a HOFer are people who feel relievers do not belong in the HOF at all and some raw stats that do not adjust for position/usage which is why I'm curious.
        I did, but I probably didn't adjust quite enough. I used the same adjustment that I did for catchers. I tend to view Gossage as a Hall of Famer, but nobody behind him. So, just Rivera, Wilhelm, and Gossage*.

        * I don't consider Eckersley a reliever since most of his value came as a starter.
        The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

        Comment


        • #5
          By the way, I was interviewed about the Hall of Stats for Beyond the Box Score. It just went up: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...d-deacon-white
          The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by adarowski View Post
            That is correct. Position player WAR is adjusted while pitching WAR is not.

            I go in a bit more detail than that—I do it by season. If Torre caught 50% of his games THAT SEASON, then he gets half of the 20% boost. That way, you're giving a boost in context, rather than to the career as a whole.

            Same as above, it's done by season.
            I see. It does make more sense to do it by season.

            Originally posted by adarowski View Post
            Right now, I'm using 0.1 as the "closeness". It's not perfect and I'm trying to think of better ways to handle this.

            Thanks for the interest! Hope this helps.
            So any player, regardless of league or season, whose offensive WAR is within 0.1 of their offensive WAA does not have their WAA counted? And same goes for pitching WAR/WAA? Or do you compare the players total WAR and total WAA (offense + defense + pitching) that season to see if they're within 0.1?

            Originally posted by adarowski View Post
            I did, but I probably didn't adjust quite enough. I used the same adjustment that I did for catchers. I tend to view Gossage as a Hall of Famer, but nobody behind him. So, just Rivera, Wilhelm, and Gossage*.

            * I don't consider Eckersley a reliever since most of his value came as a starter.
            Do you mean that pitchers like Eckersley who aren't full-time relievers are not given the reliever boost for any season? Or are you just saying you view Eck as a starter and he did receive the reliever boost each season, proportional his % of games pitched in relief?

            Originally posted by adarowski View Post
            By the way, I was interviewed about the Hall of Stats for Beyond the Box Score. It just went up: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...d-deacon-white
            Neat. I'll listen to it tonight.

            Thanks for your help!
            *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

            Comment


            • #7
              So any player, regardless of league or season, whose offensive WAR is within 0.1 of their offensive WAA does not have their WAA counted? And same goes for pitching WAR/WAA? Or do you compare the players total WAR and total WAA (offense + defense + pitching) that season to see if they're within 0.1?
              I don't. I do them individually because otherwise I wouldn't catch the pitchers batting stats.

              Do you mean that pitchers like Eckersley who aren't full-time relievers are not given the reliever boost for any season? Or are you just saying you view Eck as a starter and he did receive the reliever boost each season, proportional his % of games pitched in relief?
              Everyone gets the relief boost when they relieve. Even Ted Williams got a relief "boost". I just meant Eck's career as a whole, I see as a starting pitching career.
              The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by adarowski View Post
                I don't. I do them individually because otherwise I wouldn't catch the pitchers batting stats.

                Everyone gets the relief boost when they relieve. Even Ted Williams got a relief "boost". I just meant Eck's career as a whole, I see as a starting pitching career.
                In both cases, that's what I figured, but I just wanted to confirm.

                Something else that occurred to me: the pitching WAA you're using is not adjusted for leverage, while the pitching WAR you're using is adjusted for leverage. It's an inconsistency I noticed on BB-Ref (see here for more detail). Using unadjusted pWAA results in a relatively lower Hall Rating for relievers compared to starters. Do you think it would be worth switching to either adjusted pWAA or unadjusted pWAR for calculating Hall Rating? The adjustment for leverage can account for a difference of several Wins.
                *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

                Comment


                • #9
                  I knew SABRmetrics like Blyleven, and I know he's a solid HOFer, but I was really surprised to see him so high up the list. I believe he is the 7th ranked pitcher, ahead of guys like Spahn and Gibson.
                  My top 10 players:

                  1. Babe Ruth
                  2. Barry Bonds
                  3. Ty Cobb
                  4. Ted Williams
                  5. Willie Mays
                  6. Alex Rodriguez
                  7. Hank Aaron
                  8. Honus Wagner
                  9. Lou Gehrig
                  10. Mickey Mantle

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by DJC View Post
                    In both cases, that's what I figured, but I just wanted to confirm.

                    Something else that occurred to me: the pitching WAA you're using is not adjusted for leverage, while the pitching WAR you're using is adjusted for leverage. It's an inconsistency I noticed on BB-Ref (see here for more detail). Using unadjusted pWAA results in a relatively lower Hall Rating for relievers compared to starters. Do you think it would be worth switching to either adjusted pWAA or unadjusted pWAR for calculating Hall Rating? The adjustment for leverage can account for a difference of several Wins.
                    Yeah, that's actually something I've been looking into. I just need to figure out exactly what's going on there.
                    The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                      I knew SABRmetrics like Blyleven, and I know he's a solid HOFer, but I was really surprised to see him so high up the list. I believe he is the 7th ranked pitcher, ahead of guys like Spahn and Gibson.
                      Oh yeah, the more you dig into Blyleven, the more you see he's actually one of the very best pitchers to ever play the game. It's crazy.
                      The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by adarowski View Post
                        Oh yeah, the more you dig into Blyleven, the more you see he's actually one of the very best pitchers to ever play the game. It's crazy.
                        Yeah, he was great, but to me he seems to be lacking the black ink to be considered a top-10 all time type of pitcher. I don't care about wins, I know he pitched for bad teams and wins are an iffy stat at best. But he only led once in ERA+, once in strikeouts, once in CG, and once in WHIP. Even if we toss out wins, Spahn puts him to shame in league leaderships. Something has to be said for dominating your era, no?
                        My top 10 players:

                        1. Babe Ruth
                        2. Barry Bonds
                        3. Ty Cobb
                        4. Ted Williams
                        5. Willie Mays
                        6. Alex Rodriguez
                        7. Hank Aaron
                        8. Honus Wagner
                        9. Lou Gehrig
                        10. Mickey Mantle

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                          Yeah, he was great, but to me he seems to be lacking the black ink to be considered a top-10 all time type of pitcher. I don't care about wins, I know he pitched for bad teams and wins are an iffy stat at best. But he only led once in ERA+, once in strikeouts, once in CG, and once in WHIP. Even if we toss out wins, Spahn puts him to shame in league leaderships. Something has to be said for dominating your era, no?
                          There are different ways to dominate, too. Wins don't capture everything. ERA doesn't capture everything. Perhaps a big fault of Blyelven's is his consistency.

                          He had a 9.4 WAR seasons. That's the year he led the league in ERA+ and shutouts while also winning 20 games.

                          Other than that, he was in between 3.9 WAR and 7.5 WAR in THIRTEEN seasons. If he had instead split those up into half great and half ****** seasons, he'd have a lot more black ink. But he had longevity at a high level.

                          It's why Lou Whitaker's individual seasons don't make you freak out. But add it all up and it's like holy crap why isn't this guy in? Whitaker's individual season? Not bad. But not inspiring. His raw career totals? Pretty freakin' good. Same with Blyleven. I mean, this guy did win 287 games with a 3.31 ERA while striking out 3701 and shutting teams out 60 times. Those are Hall of Fame totals. He just went about it differently.

                          Being great for 20 years makes it harder to get in the Hall of Fame than being incredible for 4 years.
                          The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                            Something has to be said for dominating your era, no?
                            Of course. But you also have the issue of talent not being distributed evenly at every position during every era. Not even close in some cases. one time you had three of the arguably top 7 CF ever playing in one city at one time. How many CF from the past 20 years will make the HOF? One? Look at the top 10 starters of the 90's compared to the top 10 starters of the 80's. League leaderships are not created equal.

                            Not that this specifically has to do with Blyleven.

                            One thing with Blyleven that I am interested in, is how much better he pitched in games decided by more than 4 runs compared to games decided by fewer than 4 runs . This is somewhat, but not fully captured in WPA "clutch." I would like to see how this would impact something like WAR if it were included. This could help explain why his WL % was even worse than what his run support would suggest.
                            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 12-06-2012, 07:06 AM.
                            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by adarowski View Post

                              Being great for 20 years makes it harder to get in the Hall of Fame than being incredible for 4 years.
                              Assuming you don't hit an arbitrary milestone magic number.
                              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                              Comment

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