The MVP and the HOF

[Fuzzy Bear]

As of this writing, the AL has selected a HOFer for MVP 46 times; 25 times they have selected a non-HOFer, with the other years filled by folks who are ineligible for the HOF. The NL has a rate of 42-27 in favor of HOFers with other winners not eligible for the HOF (including Pete Rose, who won the award once).

Only two MULTIPLE MVP winners have not been selected to the HOF that are eligible; Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzalez. Murphy is in his final year of eligibility and hasn't gontten that much traction.

On it's face, winning an MVP indicates that your chances of making the HOF are 60-65%. To what degree does winning the MVP award contribute to a player's selection to the HOF?

[jalbright]

It's better than a Cy Young, that's for sure. Excluding banned players and guys with strong PED issues, you've got to go to Juan Gonzalez for the most MVP shares to be excluded, and he's in the 40's. Bret Saberhagen is only 12th in Cy Young shares, and he's out. Even allowing twice as many position players as pitchers, that's definitely tilted toward MVPs.

It's a heck of a selling point for a player to have been considered among the best in the game. Now a guy who has one fluky MVP or Cy Young award season (basically defined as one that just stands way out above the level of the other seasons in his career), it doesn't matter much. But if a guy follows up one of those award winning seasons with five or six other All-Star quality seasons, it becomes very hard to dismiss the guy. Assuming there's some other seasons to back it up, it's more valuable the greater the consensus that he was one of the two or three best in the game that year, the more it helps. If a guy wins a badly split MVP vote, it doesn't carry the same weight.

[Cowtipper]

Roger Maris also won two MVPs.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As of this writing, the AL has selected a HOFer for MVP 46 times; 25 times they have selected a non-HOFer, with the other years filled by folks who are ineligible for the HOF. The NL has a rate of 42-27 in favor of HOFers with other winners not eligible for the HOF (including Pete Rose, who won the award once).

Only two MULTIPLE MVP winners have not been selected to the HOF that are eligible; Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzalez. Murphy is in his final year of eligibility and hasn't gontten that much traction.

On it's face, winning an MVP indicates that your chances of making the HOF are 60-65%. To what degree does winning the MVP award contribute to a player's selection to the HOF?

Cowtipper reminded me of Maris's 2 MVPs, so that's 3 Multiple MVP winners not in the HOF that are eligible

[The Commissioner]

Any of the three make viable candidates. Murphy always surprised me in that he never received more support. I can't help but think that if his batting average didn't take a nose dive near the end of his career, he would already be in Cooperstown. He was definitely one of the elite players of the 1980s. If he finished with a BA maybe 5 or 6 points higher, I believe he's in. Those strikeouts and low BA are acceptable in a guy with Killebrew power totals, but for Murph, depsite the great glove and prowess on the basepaths it wasn't enough.

[Bigfoot 88]

Roger Maris vs. Dale Murphy Hall of Fame voting.

Maris:
1974 BBWAA (21.4%)
1975 BBWAA (19.3%)
1976 BBWAA (22.4%)
1977 BBWAA (21.4%)
1978 BBWAA (21.9%)
1979 BBWAA (29.4%)
1980 BBWAA (28.8%)
1981 BBWAA (23.4%)
1982 BBWAA (16.6%)
1983 BBWAA (18.4%)
1984 BBWAA (26.6%)
1985 BBWAA (32.4%)
1986 BBWAA (41.6%)
1987 BBWAA (42.6%)
1988 BBWAA (43.1%)

Murphy:
1999 BBWAA (19.3%)
2000 BBWAA (23.2%)
2001 BBWAA (18.1%)
2002 BBWAA (14.8%)
2003 BBWAA (11.7%)
2004 BBWAA ( 8.5%)
2005 BBWAA (10.5%)
2006 BBWAA (10.8%)
2007 BBWAA ( 9.2%)
2008 BBWAA (13.8%)
2009 BBWAA (11.5%)
2010 BBWAA (11.7%)
2011 BBWAA (12.6%)
2012 BBWAA (14.5%)

[dgarza]

It's better than a Cy Young, that's for sure.

Saberhagen and McLain are the 2 multiple CY winners who have been Hall eligible who have not made the Hall, and they were (in terms of support) both one and done. [McLain was on the BBWAA ballot a few times, but always received less than 1% support.]

[dgarza]

Any of the three make viable candidates. Murphy always surprised me in that he never received more support. I can't help but think that if his batting average didn't take a nose dive near the end of his career, he would already be in Cooperstown. He was definitely one of the elite players of the 1980s. If he finished with a BA maybe 5 or 6 points higher, I believe he's in. Those strikeouts and low BA are acceptable in a guy with Killebrew power totals, but for Murph, depsite the great glove and prowess on the basepaths it wasn't enough.

I think at if he also saw better post-season days, he would have gotten more support.

The Braves were pretty well swept in the 1982 NLCS. And even though he was all but done while in Philly, he was released just days prior to Opening Day of the Phillies 1993 World Series run.

[The Commissioner]

I think at if he also saw better post-season days, he would have gotten more support.

The Braves were pretty well swept in the 1982 NLCS. And even though he was all but done while in Philly, he was released just days prior to Opening Day of the Phillies 1993 World Series run.

Excellent point. Unfortunately for him, some of his best seasons were when the rest of team was just plain bad. A few of those years, the Braves finished 20+ games behind in the standings. 1985 would be the quintessential example. That year he led the N.L. in HRs, runs scored, and walks. He finished 2nd in RBI and total bases, and hit .300. He would have finished higher than 7th in the M.V.P. race had the Braves not finished 29 games out of first place.

[henrich]

To your point, if Larkin doesn't win his mvp in '95, he would have fallen short from induction IMO. I think he would have been compared to another Red-Davey Concepcion. That may not be fair, perhaps closer to Alan Trammell.

[Ben Grimm]

Of course in a couple of years we'll have Frank Thomas on teh ballot and he's questionable based on two things.... 1) he played during the PED era so there will be questions of that, and 2) he played more games as a DH than anywhere else. His overall body of work is almost impossible to pass on, but there are members of the BBWAA that have their own agendas.

[henrich]

true on thomas, but i'd vote for him without batting an eye.

[Brooklyn]

Any of the three make viable candidates. Murphy always surprised me in that he never received more support. I can't help but think that if his batting average didn't take a nose dive near the end of his career, he would already be in Cooperstown. He was definitely one of the elite players of the 1980s. If he finished with a BA maybe 5 or 6 points higher, I believe he's in. Those strikeouts and low BA are acceptable in a guy with Killebrew power totals, but for Murph, depsite the great glove and prowess on the basepaths it wasn't enough.

I'm not sure if retiring earlier would have helped Murphy. he retired in 1993 batting .265 with 398 homeruns, 2111 hits and 1266 RBIs. He would have had to retire 4 years earlier to have left with his average at .270. At the end of 1989, he had 1820 hits, 354 HRs and 1088 RBIs. At the end of the prior year he was at .274 with 334 homeruns, 1689 hits and 1004 RBIs. I don't think his career would have been viewed as good enough to withstand those low counting numbers, unless it had ended by injury.

I actually look at it the other way - I think if he hit 2 more homeruns to get to 400 he would have been looked at very differently.

Growing up in the 80's, Murphy was one of those players that you knew was a HOFer. Another was Garvey. Amazing what 30 years of perspective does

[henrich]

i still think murphy and garvey are hall of famers. Garvey does have a case on par with murphy, albeit different positions.

[JR Hart]

Growing up in the 80's, Murphy was one of those players that you knew was a HOFer. Another was Garvey. Amazing what 30 years of perspective does

I'm totally puzzled by this also. What happened? was it sabermetrics? I was sure that Murphy and Garvey were HOFers at the time that they played. They seemed like no-brainers. I still still think that they are. Baseball is played on the field and not in a math problem. Did anyone think that Bobby Grich was a HOFer when he played? He gets all-kind of support here. And don't even get me started on Darell Evans.