Tweet
Note that we are voting for only four this time because the great class born in 1968 has been left behind.
This is the eighth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Mariano Rivera was the third oldest player active in 2012. Jim Thome is the fourth active player we've seen so far.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1969 and 1970.
This is the eighth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Mariano Rivera was the third oldest player active in 2012. Jim Thome is the fourth active player we've seen so far.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Ken Griffey 79.2 1969 11304 10 403 235 114
Jim Thome 67.5 1970 10313 6 383 156 95
Jim Edmonds 57.2 1970 7980 7 301 88 64
Juan Gonzalez 35.1 1969 7155 2 234 123 68
Jeff Cirillo 32.0 1969 6136 3 169 37
Travis Fryman 31.2 1969 7217 2 199 36
Javy Lopez 27.2 1970 5793 2 194 66 41
Bret Boone 19.5 1969 7433 2 208 63 42
Mariano Rivera 52.7 1969 1219.2 1 321 251 154
Troy Percival 16.3 1969 708.2 0 156 96 57
Comment