Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Future Hall of Famers #8: Players Born 1969-70

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Future Hall of Famers #8: Players Born 1969-70

    Note that we are voting for only four this time because the great class born in 1968 has been left behind.

    This is the eighth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    --Mariano Rivera was the third oldest player active in 2012. Jim Thome is the fourth active player we've seen so far.
    Code:
              Player	WAR/pos	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
         Ken Griffey	79.2	1969	11304	10	403	235	114
           Jim Thome	67.5	1970	10313	 6	383	156	 95
         Jim Edmonds	57.2	1970	 7980 	 7	301	 88	 64
       Juan Gonzalez	35.1	1969	 7155 	 2	234	123	 68
        Jeff Cirillo	32.0	1969	 6136	 3	169	 37	
       Travis Fryman	31.2	1969	 7217	 2	199	 36	
          Javy Lopez	27.2	1970	 5793	 2	194	 66	 41
          Bret Boone	19.5	1969	 7433	 2	208	 63	 42
      Mariano Rivera	52.7	1969	1219.2	 1	321	251	154
       Troy Percival	16.3	1969	 708.2	 0	156	 96	 57
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1969 and 1970.
    96
    Bret Boone
    0.00%
    0
    Jeff Cirillo
    0.00%
    0
    Jim Edmonds
    21.88%
    21
    Travis Fryman
    0.00%
    0
    Juan Gonzalez
    3.13%
    3
    Ken Griffey, Jr.
    25.00%
    24
    Javy Lopez
    1.04%
    1
    Troy Percival
    0.00%
    0
    Mariano Rivera
    23.96%
    23
    Jim Thome
    25.00%
    24
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    Rivera, Griffey and Thome, probably in that order, are pretty much sure things (unless any new PED suspicions arise). Not a very good batch beyond that, but Edmonds certainly has a shot. JuanGon is a longshot, but possible.
    Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

    1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

    Comment


    • #3
      Griffey, Thome, Rivera = Locks. After that, maybe Edmonds has a chance, but realistically he very likely won't get in.

      Comment


      • #4
        I think I must have voted for JuanGon by mistake- there's one too many votes!
        Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

        1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

        Comment


        • #5
          My ranking of selected players:

          1. Mariano Rivera - WILL MAKE IT
          2. Ken Griffey Jr. - WILL MAKE IT
          3. Jim Thome - WILL MAKE IT
          4. Jim Edmonds - I feel he will be unable to be elected, but probably is the 4th most likely player
          ------HOF---------
          5. Juan Gonzalez
          6. Troy Percival
          7. Robb Nen
          ------Tolerable----
          8. Bob Wickman
          9. Bret Boone
          10. Javy Lopez
          11. Eddie Guardado
          12. Jeff Cirillo
          13. Travis Fryman
          14. Mark Grudzielanek
          15. Craig Counsell

          Both Jim Edmonds and Troy Percival may end up being One And Dones, but I think I'll foresee Edmonds with the better chance.
          Last edited by dgarza; 12-11-2012, 07:25 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by dgarza View Post
            Both Jim Edmonds and Troy Percival may end up being One And Dones, but I think I'll foresee Edmonds with the better chance.
            Yeah, I considered making this a "pick 3" election, but I try to avoid straying too far from the pick 5 standard. Edmonds has a fair chance to be knocked out next time, another pick 4 election.
            Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

            Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

            Comment


            • #7
              I went with Rivera, Griffey and Thome who are locks. For #4 I put Jim Edmonds and Juan Gonzalez in a hat and ended up with Juan Gone. Neither one has much of a chance of getting past 10% on a BBWAA ballot.

              Comment


              • #8
                i agree with dgarza and jjpm.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I'm surprised by the strong showing for Edmonds and the lack of support for Javy!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thome
                    Rivera
                    Griffey
                    Edmonds
                    “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                    "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Yeah this is pretty easy with Griffey, Rivera, Thome and Edmonds has a good shot too.
                      "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                      "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

                      Comment

                      Ad Widget

                      Collapse
                      Working...
                      X