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  • ESPN's Hall of 100

    SIAP. Here's a link ESPN's Hall of 100

    According to the methodology article... "What is GAR?" Wins above replacement (WAR) is a valuable tool when making an argument, but when arguing which players are the greatest of all time, it only measures career value. Peak value, as coined by Bill James, is a little different, measuring the height of a player's greatness rather than his breadth. Take for example, the case of Sandy Koufax, who ranks 74th in career pitching WAR at FanGraphs. Even the most hard-core stathead alive won't try to claim that Koufax wasn't greater than Frank Tanana, Chuck Finley or Jerry Koosman, all of whom have a higher career WAR.

    That's where GAR comes in. What GAR does is put career WAR in a historical context that takes into consideration both a player's career value and peak value. It starts with career WAR and adds a player's five-year peak WAR, multiplied by 1.6 to put peak and career on an equal scale. For a baseline, replacement level doesn't make sense -- typical replacement level is talent that's freely available, which just won't do when trying to separate the great from the greatest. Instead, we've chosen as the baseline the average of the 20th through 30th best at each position, that sweet spot at which you've stopped talking about inner circle Hall of Famers and started talking about the fictional Hall of Very Good.

    GAR is a blunt instrument, and not intended to end arguments, but simply to add an additional statistical tool to look at when we argue about whether X was a greater ballplayer than Y, which we do endlessly this time of year. -- Dan Szymborski


    Can anyone give me a concrete example of how to calculate GAR? I'm not sure how to use their multiplier and then combine it with WAR.
    ?

  • #2
    Originally posted by MyDogSparty View Post
    SIAP. Here's a link ESPN's Hall of 100

    According to the methodology article... "What is GAR?" Wins above replacement (WAR) is a valuable tool when making an argument, but when arguing which players are the greatest of all time, it only measures career value. Peak value, as coined by Bill James, is a little different, measuring the height of a player's greatness rather than his breadth. Take for example, the case of Sandy Koufax, who ranks 74th in career pitching WAR at FanGraphs. Even the most hard-core stathead alive won't try to claim that Koufax wasn't greater than Frank Tanana, Chuck Finley or Jerry Koosman, all of whom have a higher career WAR.

    That's where GAR comes in. What GAR does is put career WAR in a historical context that takes into consideration both a player's career value and peak value. It starts with career WAR and adds a player's five-year peak WAR, multiplied by 1.6 to put peak and career on an equal scale. For a baseline, replacement level doesn't make sense -- typical replacement level is talent that's freely available, which just won't do when trying to separate the great from the greatest. Instead, we've chosen as the baseline the average of the 20th through 30th best at each position, that sweet spot at which you've stopped talking about inner circle Hall of Famers and started talking about the fictional Hall of Very Good.

    GAR is a blunt instrument, and not intended to end arguments, but simply to add an additional statistical tool to look at when we argue about whether X was a greater ballplayer than Y, which we do endlessly this time of year. -- Dan Szymborski


    Can anyone give me a concrete example of how to calculate GAR? I'm not sure how to use their multiplier and then combine it with WAR.
    wWAR, Hall of WAR, peak adjusted WAR, JAWS, GAW...all slightly different versions of the same thing.

    Example:

    Tom Glavine: WAR = 76.8
    adjusted 5-year peak = 33.3 x 1.6 = 53.28

    76.8 + 53.28 = 130.08 GAR

    For the record, they only used to GAr to make the pool to draw from- they used subjectivity to rank the players after that.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 12-12-2012, 10:49 AM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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    • #3
      Steve Carlton is 26th.

      26th!!!

      My mind is blown.
      My top 10 players:

      1. Babe Ruth
      2. Barry Bonds
      3. Ty Cobb
      4. Ted Williams
      5. Willie Mays
      6. Alex Rodriguez
      7. Hank Aaron
      8. Honus Wagner
      9. Lou Gehrig
      10. Mickey Mantle

      Comment


      • #4
        Yeah having Carlton at 26 and Pete Alexander at 50 is a joke. I think Lefty Grove and Warren Spahn were both behind Nolan Ryan.
        "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

        "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

        Comment


        • #5
          That's what I love about lists...everyone's a critic.

          Still is interesting what ESPN did...
          "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
          George Brett

          Comment


          • #6
            Robbie Alomar 72nd? I'd have to guess he is rated 50 spots too high. Brooks Robinson so high? Well, everyone has an opinion.

            To me the biggest joke was Jim Thome one spot ahead of Sammy Sosa. Really? Sigh. Even if you discount steroids at all, Sammy one spot behind Thome? He isn't within 20-30 spots of Thome.
            "He'd give you the shirt off his back. Of course he'd call a press conference to announce it" Catfish Hunter speaking about Reggie Jackson.
            Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

            Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

            Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

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            • #7
              Roberto Clemente 50 some places above Manny Ramirez??
              That's a huge laugh

              revisionism
              This week's Giant

              #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by chicagowhitesox1173 View Post
                Yeah having Carlton at 26 and Pete Alexander at 50 is a joke. I think Lefty Grove and Warren Spahn were both behind Nolan Ryan.
                I rate Spahn and Grove above Ryan.

                When I was a kid that other guy was known Grover Cleveland Alexander. Then sometime in the late 1990s, his use name became Pete Alexander. Weird.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Muncus Agruncus View Post
                  I rate Spahn and Grove above Ryan.

                  When I was a kid that other guy was known Grover Cleveland Alexander. Then sometime in the late 1990s, his use name became Pete Alexander. Weird.
                  I used to have a replica baseball card of Alexander when he played for the Philies and the card used Pete Alexander so I always went with Pete. But I agree it seems he used to be called Grover alot more from years past.
                  "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                  "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by JR Hart View Post
                    Roberto Clemente 50 some places above Manny Ramirez??
                    That's a huge laugh

                    revisionism
                    I don't understand. Manny just retired. How is that revisionism? There's been too little time to set much of a precedent for Manny.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by dgarza View Post
                      I don't understand. Manny just retired. How is that revisionism? There's been too little time to set much of a precedent for Manny.
                      The revisionism is about Clemente more. He has almost achieved sainthood. He was a very good player, but top 80 at best. Manny is one of baseball's all-time elite sluggers.
                      This week's Giant

                      #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by JR Hart View Post
                        The revisionism is about Clemente more. He has almost achieved sainthood. He was a very good player, but top 80 at best. Manny is one of baseball's all-time elite sluggers.
                        Who was also busted not once but twice for PEDS use.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                          For the record, they only used to GAr to make the pool to draw from- they used subjectivity to rank the players after that.
                          I didn't realize that it was only used to create the pool. It would be really interesting to see how the order of the list turned out without the subjectivity. I really liked that they were trying to mesh the "career value" with the "peak value".

                          Thanks for the math help. I figured it was something like that. I wonder if it's that hard to use a program like Excel and create a formula to "discover" a player's 5-year peak WAR?
                          ?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I watched the video on the ESPN top 100 and I have to give Jason Stark credit for saying that Arky Vaughan and Johnny Mize belong on the top 100. The other ESPN analyst not so great with who he thought were the biggest snubs, he said Ryne Sandberg and Edgar Martinez were the two biggest snubs.
                            "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                            "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              It's been pretty cool to follow this along. It's nice that Dan Szymborski was involved in making the ballot. Of course, that's where GAR stops. Then they vote.

                              Carlton shocked me, too.

                              I've been comparing the Hall of 100 to the Hall of Stats over here: http://www.hallofstats.com/articles/...ts-hall-of-100

                              Predictably, there is massive disagreement on Derek Jeter and 19th century players.
                              The Hall of Stats: An alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula.

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