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Future Hall of Famers #9: Players Born 1970-71

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  • Future Hall of Famers #9: Players Born 1970-71

    Note that we are voting for only four again this time because the new class (1971) is only slightly stronger than the old one(1969).

    This is the ninth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    --Jim Thome and Jason Giambi were active players last season.
    Code:
                  Player	WAR/pos	Born	PA/IP   4.5 Yrs  WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
               Jim Thome	67.8	1970	10313	 6	383	156	 95
          Ivan Rodriguez	63.7	1971	10270	 6	338	226	111
             Jim Edmonds	57.3	1970	 7980	 7	301	 88	 64
             Brian Giles	48.4	1971	 7836 	 6	287	 53	 52
            Jason Giambi	47.6	1971	 8622	 5	322	104	 75
            Jorge Posada	39.0	1971	 7150	 3	258	 98	 64
              Ray Durham	30.6	1971	 8423 	 0	231	 64	
              Javy Lopez	27.2	1970	 5793 	 2	194	 66	 41
          Pedro Martinez	80.5	1971	2827.1	10	320	206	 87
            Billy Wagner	26.9	1971	 903.0	 0	228	129	 87
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1970 and 1971.
    117
    Ray Durham
    0.00%
    0
    Jim Edmonds
    10.26%
    12
    Jason Giambi
    0.85%
    1
    Brian Giles
    0.00%
    0
    Javy Lopez
    0.00%
    0
    Pedro Martinez
    24.79%
    29
    Jorge Posada
    7.69%
    9
    Ivan Rodriguez
    25.64%
    30
    Jim Thome
    25.64%
    30
    Billy Wagner
    5.13%
    6
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Freakshow; 12-14-2012, 08:51 PM.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    The clear cut guys would be Pedro Martinez, Jim Thome, van Rodriguez and Jim Edmonds with Billy Wagner being the next best.
    "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

    "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

    Comment


    • #3
      My ranking of selected players:

      1. Pedro Martinez - WILL MAKE IT
      2. Jim Thome - WILL MAKE IT
      3. Ivan Rodriguez - WILL MAKE IT
      4. Billy Wagner - deserving, but will not get much support
      5. Jason Giambi - will get little support
      6. Jim Edmonds - I feel he will be unable to be elected
      ------HOF---------
      7. Jorge Posada - his "fame" and being the Yankee catcher on all those WS team is going allow him to stay on the ballot for a while - I think he'll get 4th most support overall
      ------Tolerable----
      8. Brian Giles
      9. Ray Durham
      10. Javy Lopez
      11. Eddie Guardado
      12. Mark Grudzielanek
      13. Craig Counsell

      Comment


      • #4
        For #4, both Billy Wagner and Jorge Posada have a good chance of making it.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thome - He's a no doubter with 600+ HR clean. He wasn't a career DH either.
          Pedro - A bigger no doubter than Thome.
          Posada - I think he will be enshrined by the VC later on.
          Pudge - There are PED questions. I just think he will get in.

          Wagner - I think he should get in. But not so sure he will.
          Edmonds - Same

          My personal most deserving in order are:

          Pedro
          Thome
          Edmonds
          Posada
          Wagner
          Giles
          Durham
          "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

          Comment


          • #6
            Pedro
            Pudge
            Thome
            Wagner
            Jorge (probably a better chance than Wagner, but not quite as deserving in my opinion)

            Comment


            • #7
              Martinez
              Thome
              Rodriguez
              Edmonds
              “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

              "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

              Comment


              • #8
                This poll closes in less than four days. The race for the 4th spot is very close.
                Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                Comment


                • #9
                  This poll closes tonight. At the moment, there's a tie for the money spot. I hate ties, I may have to dissect the balloting to determine a winner.
                  Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                  Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
                    This poll closes tonight. At the moment, there's a tie for the money spot. I hate ties, I may have to dissect the balloting to determine a winner.
                    I'd vote for Edmonds again, but the poll won't let me.

                    I've noticed that at least one voter chose 5 players, if that helps.
                    *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

                    Comment

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