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Note that we are voting for only four again this time because the new class (1971) is only slightly stronger than the old one(1969).
This is the ninth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Jim Thome and Jason Giambi were active players last season.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1970 and 1971.
This is the ninth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Sheffield, Sosa, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Jim Thome and Jason Giambi were active players last season.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Jim Thome 67.8 1970 10313 6 383 156 95
Ivan Rodriguez 63.7 1971 10270 6 338 226 111
Jim Edmonds 57.3 1970 7980 7 301 88 64
Brian Giles 48.4 1971 7836 6 287 53 52
Jason Giambi 47.6 1971 8622 5 322 104 75
Jorge Posada 39.0 1971 7150 3 258 98 64
Ray Durham 30.6 1971 8423 0 231 64
Javy Lopez 27.2 1970 5793 2 194 66 41
Pedro Martinez 80.5 1971 2827.1 10 320 206 87
Billy Wagner 26.9 1971 903.0 0 228 129 87
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