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Future Hall of Famers #10: Players Born 1971-72

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  • Future Hall of Famers #10: Players Born 1971-72

    This is the tenth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Giambi, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    --Jason Giambi, Chipper Jones and Andy Pettitte were active in MLB last season.
                Player	WAR/pos	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
         Chipper Jones	81.5	1972	10614	 8	416	180	108
         Manny Ramirez	64.8	1972	 9774	 7	408	226	125
        Ivan Rodriguez	63.7	1971	10270	 6	338	226	111
           Brian Giles	48.4	1971	 7836	 6	287	 53	 52
          Jason Giambi	47.6	1971	 8622	 5	322	104	 75
        Carlos Delgado	40.4	1972	 8657 	 4	303	110	 76
          Jorge Posada	39.0	1971	 7150	 3	258	 98	 64
           Shawn Green	31.4	1972	 7963	 3	237	 62	 46
        Pedro Martinez	80.5	1971	2827.1	10	320	206	 87
         Andy Pettitte	54.2	1972	3130.2	 3	265	123	 53
            Brad Radke	42.3	1972	2451.0	 4	196	 13	
          Billy Wagner	26.9	1971	 903.0	 0	228	129	 87
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1971 and 1972.
    Carlos Delgado
    Jason Giambi
    Brian Giles
    Shawn Green
    Chipper Jones
    Pedro Martinez
    Andy Pettitte
    Jorge Posada
    Brad Radke
    Manny Ramirez
    Ivan Rodriguez
    Billy Wagner
    Other (please specify)

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Freakshow; 12-23-2012, 01:45 PM.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    Easy for me to go with Manny, Chipper, Pedro and I-Rod. That leaves a fifth, and that was a hard choice between Delgado, Wagner and Pettite. I went with Delgado, but that was almost picking straws among the three.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.


    • #3
      Chipper, Pedro and I-Rod the definites this time. Manny will probably make it eventually. Then it's between Pettite, Delgado, Posada and Wagner. I picked Posada, but it's a tough call between him and Pettite. Actually it coud've been any of the four.
      Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

      1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2020


      • #4
        Posada (I don't know if I'd say he SHOULD be in, but I think he WILL get in.)
        "The first draft of anything is crap." - Ernest Hemingway

        There's no such thing as an ultimate stat.


        • #5
          My ranking of selected players:

          1. Manny Ramirez - WILL MAKE IT, but might have character hurdles to overcome at first
          2. Pedro Martinez - WILL MAKE IT
          3. Chipper Jones - WILL MAKE IT
          4. Ivan Rodriguez - WILL MAKE IT
          5. Billy Wagner - deserving, but will not get much support
          6. Jason Giambi - will get little support
          7. Carlos Delgado - will get some support, might make it, but not so quickly
          8. Jorge Posada - his "fame" and being the Yankee catcher on all those WS team is going allow him to stay on the ballot for a while - I think he'll get 5th most support overall
          9. Brian Giles
          10. Armando Benitez
          11. Andy Pettitte
          12. Ray Durham
          13. Keith Foulke
          14. Jason Isringhausen
          15. Shawn Green
          16. Jason Varitek
          17. Brad Radke
          18. Melvin Mora
          19. Garrett Anderson
          Last edited by dgarza; 12-27-2012, 07:30 AM.


          • #6
            Posada is the exact type of player who makes the HOF. I really like his chances. Manny is the exact type of player voters are currently punishing.

            The candidacy of Andy Pettitte is terribly terribly interesting. He is in both camps at the same time. I said yes, only because I think he has a better shot that Manny Ramirez and I wanted to give you five guys.

            Chipper is a First Ballot guy. IRod should be too, but he may be held back for stupid reasons. I think Pedro may have to wait and it might take longer than it should too, for different stupid reasons.
            Your Second Base Coach
            Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.


            • #7
              Wags (although he possibly won't get the support that he truly deserves)


              • #8
                Chipper Jones
                Pedro Martinez
                Ivan Rodriguez
                Andy Pettite
                Billy Wagner

                Jorge Posada
                "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)


                • #9
                  Less than three days to go in this one. The five winners look pretty solid; they're the ones I voted for.
                  Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                  Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.


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