Tweet
This is the tenth poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2062. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Giambi, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Jason Giambi, Chipper Jones and Andy Pettitte were active in MLB last season.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1971 and 1972.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Giambi, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Jason Giambi, Chipper Jones and Andy Pettitte were active in MLB last season.
Code:
Player WAR/pos Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Chipper Jones 81.5 1972 10614 8 416 180 108
Manny Ramirez 64.8 1972 9774 7 408 226 125
Ivan Rodriguez 63.7 1971 10270 6 338 226 111
Brian Giles 48.4 1971 7836 6 287 53 52
Jason Giambi 47.6 1971 8622 5 322 104 75
Carlos Delgado 40.4 1972 8657 4 303 110 76
Jorge Posada 39.0 1971 7150 3 258 98 64
Shawn Green 31.4 1972 7963 3 237 62 46
Pedro Martinez 80.5 1971 2827.1 10 320 206 87
Andy Pettitte 54.2 1972 3130.2 3 265 123 53
Brad Radke 42.3 1972 2451.0 4 196 13
Billy Wagner 26.9 1971 903.0 0 228 129 87
Comment