2012 HOF Voting Tracker- Found this on a Blog

[Bothrops Atrox]

Updated through 118 Full Ballots with 20.6% of last year's vote total)



67.8 - Biggio
66.1 - Bagwell
63.6 - Piazza
62.7 - Raines
62.7 - J. Morris
44.9 - Clemens
44.9 - Bonds
39.0 - E. Martinez
38.1 - Schilling
37.3 - L. Smith
37.3 - Trammell
20.3 - D. Murphy
16.1 - McGwire
15.3 - McGriff
15.3 - Raffy
15.3 - L. Walker
15.3 - S. Sosa
6.8 - Mattingly
———————————
2.5 - Lofton
2.5 - P. Rose
1.7 - D. Wells
1.7 - Bernie Williams
0.8 - J. Franco

[PVNICK]

I don't know which is worse Biggio/Bagwell hovering @ 67%, Morris above 60 or Lofton/Bernie below the line.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I don't know which is worse Biggio/Bagwell hovering @ 67%, Morris above 60 or Lofton/Bernie below the line.

All pretty embarassing.

[Cowtipper]

Bob Brookover voting only for Dale Murphy is curious.

[KCGHOST]

Between PED's and too many well qualified candidates nobody will be elected.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Bob Brookover voting only for Dale Murphy is curious.

That is strange, it's kind of a jerky thing to do.

[Jackaroo Dave]

Updated through 118 Full Ballots with 20.6% of last year's vote total)

This is all really interesting stuff, but it's hard to know how much weight to put on it, since it's a voluntary sample, not a random one. The writers who are going public one way or another may systematically differ from the overall population. May be more contrarian, or have a bigger axe of some kind to grind, etc. And those keeping silent may have their reasons for doing so as well.

I realize this obvious and everyone knows it, but it really is easy for such a sample to mislead.

[Bothrops Atrox]

This is all really interesting stuff, but it's hard to know how much weight to put on it, since it's a voluntary sample, not a random one. The writers who are going public one way or another may systematically differ from the overall population. May be more contrarian, or have a bigger axe of some kind to grind, etc. And those keeping silent may have their reasons for doing so as well.

I realize this obvious and everyone knows it, but it really is easy for such a sample to mislead.

Yes, in fact I already said "Based on previous trackers, a +/- 10 point MOE spread is about the extremes. So Biggio is the only one with a realistic chance, unless there are some very particular reasons why voters of certain players are not disclosing. Maybe the Morris fans are too embarrassed?"

That was when Morris was a few points lower. Now the true spread could be larger than 10% for any player, but that would be pretty rare.

[Ben Grimm]

Bob Brookover voting only for Dale Murphy is curious.

Murray Chass did the same with Morris. At least Chass said he's withdrawing from the voting next year. Brookover ought to follow suit. Know what? Add Jon Heyman to the list of those who should lose their priveleges. Here are Heyman's selections along with his reasoning. Curt Schilling gets his vote because there's no evidence of juicing, but Piazza doesn't get a vote because they're not enough evidence of juicing? Sounds a bit hypocritical to me.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Murray Chass did the same with Morris. At least Chass said he's withdrawing from the voting next year. Brookover ought to follow suit. Know what? Add Jon Heyman to the list of those who should lose their priveleges. Here are Heyman's selections along with his reasoning. Curt Schilling gets his vote because there's no evidence of juicing, but Piazza doesn't get a vote because they're not enough evidence of juicing? Sounds a bit hypocritical to me.

He's actually waiting for Piazza to write his book before he makes his decision on him.

[PVNICK]

It's so hard to comment on the peculiarities. I'm sure my choices would seem peculiar as well. I like the citing the WS for Morris but chiding Bernie Williams for having too high a percentage of great post season moments.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Hall of Merit (Baseball Think Factory) member post:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Let me take a shot at the percent groupings of the electorate re: steroids.

20% Steroid ignorers. People who will vote for Mark McGwire (current Mark % held a bit lower by crowded ballot).

25% Steroid adjusters. They won't vote for McGwire, who maybe only hits 450 homers clean, with too low of a hit total, no defensive value to warrant induction. But they will vote for Bonds and Clemens, who had HOF resumes before the year they are commonly thought to have started juicing.

20% Steroid convicters. They won't vote for McGwire, Bonds or Clemens, but will vote for guys like Piazza and Bagwell. Guys for whom there is no reasonable case to convict them as steroid users, but suspicions (however flimsy) remain.

5% Steroid witch hunters. Cannot vote for Piazza or Bagwell. If it looks like a witch, burn it! Biggio OK though.

10% Scorched earth anti-steroid zealots. They won't vote for Biggio or Schilling, even if there's not even flimsy suspicion against them. They played with steroid users, dammit, and deserve to suffer for that sin. Murray's kin will only vote for Jack Morris, because it will rile up those filthy, unwashed mother's basement types.

5% confused voters. All those qualified names, only so much dexterity in my writing pen. If I vote for Bonds, Clemens, and Morris, not sure if I have the inclination left to scribble out B-I-G-G-I-O.


14% - won't vote for anyone first ballot unless they are both 100% clean and also have pure, no doubt, inner circle stats.

1% Would not vote for anyone on the first ballot. No exceptions.

OK. Now my groups add up to 100%."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pretty funny, if not somewhat accurate.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Next year's ballot will be mind-blowing. And there will be so many guys deserving votes, only Maddux will get in. We may have a situation where guys who at one point were considered locks, with little to no PED evidence (Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, Biggio, etc.) will have to wait years to get in.

[fenrir]

Next year's ballot will be mind-blowing. And there will be so many guys deserving votes, only Maddux will get in. We may have a situation where guys who at one point were considered locks, with little to no PED evidence (Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, Biggio, etc.) will have to wait years to get in.

This sounds about right. Also, I no longer believe Maddux has a shot at breaking Seaver's record.

[fenrir]

Update from Baseballthinkfactory:

The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated 7:35 ~ 151 Full Ballots ~ (26.4% of vote ~ based on last year)

Cooperstown = Ghost town? %.

68.2 - Biggio
62.9 - J. Morris
61.6 - Bagwell
60.9 - Raines
58.9 - Piazza
43.0 - Bonds
42.4- Clemens
39.1 - L. Smith
39.1 - Schilling
36.4 - E. Martinez
36.4 - Trammell
21.2 - D. Murphy
19.2 - McGriff
15.2 - L. Walker
14.6 - S. Sosa
13.0 - Raffy
13.0 - McGwire
9.3 - Mattingly
———————————
2.6 - Lofton
2.0 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
2.0 - Bernie Williams
1.3 - D. Wells
0.7 - J. Franco
0.7 - S. Alomar Jr.
0.7 - S. Green