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2012 HOF Voting Tracker- Found this on a Blog

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  • #16
    Updated through 118 Full Ballots with 20.6% of last year's vote total)



    67.8 - Biggio
    66.1 - Bagwell
    63.6 - Piazza
    62.7 - Raines
    62.7 - J. Morris
    44.9 - Clemens
    44.9 - Bonds
    39.0 - E. Martinez
    38.1 - Schilling
    37.3 - L. Smith
    37.3 - Trammell
    20.3 - D. Murphy
    16.1 - McGwire
    15.3 - McGriff
    15.3 - Raffy
    15.3 - L. Walker
    15.3 - S. Sosa
    6.8 - Mattingly
    ———————————
    2.5 - Lofton
    2.5 - P. Rose
    1.7 - D. Wells
    1.7 - Bernie Williams
    0.8 - J. Franco
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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    • #17
      I don't know which is worse Biggio/Bagwell hovering @ 67%, Morris above 60 or Lofton/Bernie below the line.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
        I don't know which is worse Biggio/Bagwell hovering @ 67%, Morris above 60 or Lofton/Bernie below the line.
        All pretty embarassing.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

        Comment


        • #19
          Bob Brookover voting only for Dale Murphy is curious.

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          • #20
            Between PED's and too many well qualified candidates nobody will be elected.
            Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
              Bob Brookover voting only for Dale Murphy is curious.
              That is strange, it's kind of a jerky thing to do.
              "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

              "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                Updated through 118 Full Ballots with 20.6% of last year's vote total)
                This is all really interesting stuff, but it's hard to know how much weight to put on it, since it's a voluntary sample, not a random one. The writers who are going public one way or another may systematically differ from the overall population. May be more contrarian, or have a bigger axe of some kind to grind, etc. And those keeping silent may have their reasons for doing so as well.

                I realize this obvious and everyone knows it, but it really is easy for such a sample to mislead.
                Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
                  This is all really interesting stuff, but it's hard to know how much weight to put on it, since it's a voluntary sample, not a random one. The writers who are going public one way or another may systematically differ from the overall population. May be more contrarian, or have a bigger axe of some kind to grind, etc. And those keeping silent may have their reasons for doing so as well.

                  I realize this obvious and everyone knows it, but it really is easy for such a sample to mislead.
                  Yes, in fact I already said "Based on previous trackers, a +/- 10 point MOE spread is about the extremes. So Biggio is the only one with a realistic chance, unless there are some very particular reasons why voters of certain players are not disclosing. Maybe the Morris fans are too embarrassed?"

                  That was when Morris was a few points lower. Now the true spread could be larger than 10% for any player, but that would be pretty rare.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
                    Bob Brookover voting only for Dale Murphy is curious.
                    Murray Chass did the same with Morris. At least Chass said he's withdrawing from the voting next year. Brookover ought to follow suit. Know what? Add Jon Heyman to the list of those who should lose their priveleges. Here are Heyman's selections along with his reasoning. Curt Schilling gets his vote because there's no evidence of juicing, but Piazza doesn't get a vote because they're not enough evidence of juicing? Sounds a bit hypocritical to me.
                    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Ben Grimm View Post
                      Murray Chass did the same with Morris. At least Chass said he's withdrawing from the voting next year. Brookover ought to follow suit. Know what? Add Jon Heyman to the list of those who should lose their priveleges. Here are Heyman's selections along with his reasoning. Curt Schilling gets his vote because there's no evidence of juicing, but Piazza doesn't get a vote because they're not enough evidence of juicing? Sounds a bit hypocritical to me.
                      He's actually waiting for Piazza to write his book before he makes his decision on him.
                      "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                      "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        It's so hard to comment on the peculiarities. I'm sure my choices would seem peculiar as well. I like the citing the WS for Morris but chiding Bernie Williams for having too high a percentage of great post season moments.

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                        • #27
                          Hall of Merit (Baseball Think Factory) member post:

                          ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          "Let me take a shot at the percent groupings of the electorate re: steroids.

                          20% Steroid ignorers. People who will vote for Mark McGwire (current Mark % held a bit lower by crowded ballot).

                          25% Steroid adjusters. They won't vote for McGwire, who maybe only hits 450 homers clean, with too low of a hit total, no defensive value to warrant induction. But they will vote for Bonds and Clemens, who had HOF resumes before the year they are commonly thought to have started juicing.

                          20% Steroid convicters. They won't vote for McGwire, Bonds or Clemens, but will vote for guys like Piazza and Bagwell. Guys for whom there is no reasonable case to convict them as steroid users, but suspicions (however flimsy) remain.

                          5% Steroid witch hunters. Cannot vote for Piazza or Bagwell. If it looks like a witch, burn it! Biggio OK though.

                          10% Scorched earth anti-steroid zealots. They won't vote for Biggio or Schilling, even if there's not even flimsy suspicion against them. They played with steroid users, dammit, and deserve to suffer for that sin. Murray's kin will only vote for Jack Morris, because it will rile up those filthy, unwashed mother's basement types.

                          5% confused voters. All those qualified names, only so much dexterity in my writing pen. If I vote for Bonds, Clemens, and Morris, not sure if I have the inclination left to scribble out B-I-G-G-I-O.


                          14% - won't vote for anyone first ballot unless they are both 100% clean and also have pure, no doubt, inner circle stats.

                          1% Would not vote for anyone on the first ballot. No exceptions.

                          OK. Now my groups add up to 100%."

                          -------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          Pretty funny, if not somewhat accurate.
                          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Next year's ballot will be mind-blowing. And there will be so many guys deserving votes, only Maddux will get in. We may have a situation where guys who at one point were considered locks, with little to no PED evidence (Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, Biggio, etc.) will have to wait years to get in.
                            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                              Next year's ballot will be mind-blowing. And there will be so many guys deserving votes, only Maddux will get in. We may have a situation where guys who at one point were considered locks, with little to no PED evidence (Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, Biggio, etc.) will have to wait years to get in.
                              This sounds about right. Also, I no longer believe Maddux has a shot at breaking Seaver's record.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Update from Baseballthinkfactory:

                                The 2013 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

                                Updated 7:35 ~ 151 Full Ballots ~ (26.4% of vote ~ based on last year)

                                Cooperstown = Ghost town? %.

                                68.2 - Biggio
                                62.9 - J. Morris
                                61.6 - Bagwell
                                60.9 - Raines
                                58.9 - Piazza
                                43.0 - Bonds
                                42.4- Clemens
                                39.1 - L. Smith
                                39.1 - Schilling
                                36.4 - E. Martinez
                                36.4 - Trammell
                                21.2 - D. Murphy
                                19.2 - McGriff
                                15.2 - L. Walker
                                14.6 - S. Sosa
                                13.0 - Raffy
                                13.0 - McGwire
                                9.3 - Mattingly
                                ———————————
                                2.6 - Lofton
                                2.0 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
                                2.0 - Bernie Williams
                                1.3 - D. Wells
                                0.7 - J. Franco
                                0.7 - S. Alomar Jr.
                                0.7 - S. Green

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