Tweet
This is the 11th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Giambi, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1972 and 1973.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Giambi, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
Code:
Player WAR 2012WAR Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Chipper Jones 81.5 2.7 1972 10614 8 416 180 108
Manny Ramirez 64.8 -- 1972 9774 7 408 226 125
Todd Helton 58.4 -0.1 1973 9011 5 309 164 95
Ichiro Suzuki 54.6 1.6 1973 8723 7 287 218 108
Johnny Damon 52.1 0.1 1973 10917 3 307 90 56
Mike Cameron 43.2 -- 1973 7884 3 243 13 28
Nomar Garciaparra 42.0 -- 1973 6116 6 219 112 70
Carlos Delgado 40.4 -- 1972 8657 4 303 110 76
Shawn Green 31.4 -- 1972 7963 3 237 62 46
Andy Pettitte 54.2 2.3 1972 3130.2 3 265 123 53
Brad Radke 42.3 -- 1972 2451.0 4 196 13
Bartolo Colon 36.0 2.6 1973 2393.1 3 193 58 27
Derek Lowe 31.8 -0.3 1973 2658.1 2 218 53 26
Comment