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Future Hall of Famers #11: Players Born 1972-73

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  • Future Hall of Famers #11: Players Born 1972-73

    This is the 11th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Giambi, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    Code:
                  Player	WAR	2012WAR	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
           Chipper Jones	81.5	 2.7	1972	10614	  8	416	180	108
           Manny Ramirez	64.8	  --	1972	 9774	  7	408	226	125
             Todd Helton	58.4	-0.1	1973	 9011	  5	309	164	 95
           Ichiro Suzuki	54.6	 1.6	1973	 8723	  7	287	218	108
            Johnny Damon	52.1	 0.1	1973	10917	  3	307	 90	 56
            Mike Cameron	43.2	  --	1973	 7884	  3	243	 13	 28
       Nomar Garciaparra	42.0	  --	1973	 6116	  6	219	112	 70
          Carlos Delgado	40.4	  --	1972	 8657	  4	303	110	 76
             Shawn Green	31.4	  --	1972	 7963  	  3	237	 62	 46
           Andy Pettitte	54.2	 2.3	1972	3130.2	  3	265	123	 53
              Brad Radke	42.3	  --	1972	2451.0	  4	196	 13	
           Bartolo Colon	36.0	 2.6	1973	2393.1	  3	193	 58	 27
              Derek Lowe	31.8	-0.3	1973	2658.1	  2	218	 53	 26
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1972 and 1973.
    104
    Mike Cameron
    0.00%
    0
    Bartolo Colon
    0.00%
    0
    Johnny Damon
    0.00%
    0
    Carlos Delgado
    3.85%
    4
    Nomar Garciaparra
    0.00%
    0
    Shawn Green
    0.00%
    0
    Todd Helton
    16.35%
    17
    Chipper Jones
    25.96%
    27
    Derek Lowe
    0.00%
    0
    Andy Pettitte
    11.54%
    12
    Brad Radke
    0.00%
    0
    Manny Ramirez
    15.38%
    16
    Ichiro Suzuki
    26.92%
    28
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    If you were asking who I would like to see in, Manny would have been 1 of my 4. As it stands, he was busted twice for PEDs use and likely used his entire career. He is less likely than Roger Clemens to make the HOF.

    Comment


    • #3
      When I first looked I thought this is easy seeing Chipper and Ichiro. From there it got though. Manny became a parody of himself and is not only less likely than Clemens to get in he is about as likely as Palmeiro. From there it gets dicey. Helton may go but I doubt it. At any rate he got my third vote. Damon nope. Delgado, see McGriff. That leaves Pettitte who may get in on the post-season, wins, big game sort of money pitcher mystique and for fessing up about HGH (even if you may find it self-serving, offensive or disingenuous).

      Comment


      • #4
        My ranking of selected players:

        1. Manny Ramirez - WILL MAKE IT, but might have character hurdles to overcome at first
        2. Chipper Jones - WILL MAKE IT
        3. Todd Helton - WILL MAKE IT
        4. Ichiro Suzuki - WILL MAKE IT on MLB experience alone
        5. Carlos Delgado - will get some support, might make it, but not so quickly
        6. Nomar Garciaparra - will be seen as a flame out
        ------HOF---------
        ------Tolerable----
        7. Armando Benitez
        8. Johnny Damon - will get more votes than he deserves
        9. Andy Pettitte
        10. Ray Durham
        11. Keith Foulke
        12. Jason Isringhausen
        13. Shawn Green
        14. Octavio Dotel
        15. Bartolo Colon
        16. Derek Lowe
        17. Edgardo Alfonzo
        18. Jason Varitek
        19. Brad Radke
        20. Melvin Mora
        21. Mike Cameron
        22. Garrett Anderson
        23. Jason Schmidt

        Comment


        • #5
          Chipper
          Ichiro
          Helton
          Pettitte (not worthy in my mind, but may garner enough support to get in)

          Comment


          • #6
            Chipper Jones
            Ichiro Suzuki
            Todd Helton
            Andy Pettite
            Manny Ramirez
            "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

            "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

            Comment


            • #7
              I guess you can't edit. I meant to vote for Helton.

              Suzuki and Chipper are the definites, then it gets dicey.
              Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

              1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by toomanyhatz View Post
                I guess you can't edit. I meant to vote for Helton.

                Suzuki and Chipper are the definites, then it gets dicey.
                I'm assuming you've voted for 4, so while I can edit the totals (it won't show you as voting for Helton, for instance), I also need to know who you want to receive credit for one less vote.
                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by jalbright View Post
                  I'm assuming you've voted for 4, so while I can edit the totals (it won't show you as voting for Helton, for instance), I also need to know who you want to receive credit for one less vote.
                  One more for Helton, one less for Carlos Delgado. Not that it looks like it'll be close, but that was my intent.
                  Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

                  1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by toomanyhatz View Post
                    One more for Helton, one less for Carlos Delgado. Not that it looks like it'll be close, but that was my intent.
                    Totals altered per this.
                    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Down to the last four days in this one. The "winners" seem pretty well in hand.

                      (I'm thinking I may put up a poll for 1961-62.)
                      Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                      Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                      Comment

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