Future Hall of Famers #12: Players Born 1973-74

[Freakshow]

This one closes in four days, with a lot of our regulars having yet to weigh in. Is Damon really #4 in this group?

[dgarza]

My ranking of selected players:

1. Derek Jeter - WILL MAKE IT
2. Todd Helton - WILL MAKE IT
3. Ichiro Suzuki - WILL MAKE IT on MLB experience alone
4. Miguel Tejada - not sure if he'll get much support, could be a long time until people push for him
5. Nomar Garciaparra - will be seen as a flame out
6. Bobby Abreu - slight/moderate support, but not sure if he's my #4
7. Joe Nathan - scant support
------HOF---------
------Tolerable----
8. Magglio Ordonez
9. Johnny Damon - will get more votes than he deserves, I guess he's my #4
10. Jason Kendall
11. Hideki Matsui
12. Octavio Dotel
13. Bartolo Colon
14. Derek Lowe
15. Ugueth Urbina
16. Edgardo Alfonzo
17. Mike Cameron
18. Kevin Millwood
19. Jason Schmidt
20. Darin Erstad
21. R.A. Dickey

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Derek Jeter
Ichiro Suzuki
Todd Helton
Johnny Damon

[1905 Giants]

Garciaparra
Suzuki
Helton
Jeter

[Freakshow]

This is the 12th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, Ramirez, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Hideki Matsui has a good case if the HOF ever gives strong consideration to his play in Japan.
--R.A. Dickey won the CY as a 37-year-old knuckleballer, so you never know how long he'll go on.

             Player    WAR/pos	2012	Born	PA/IP  4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
        Derek Jeter	69.3	 2.1	1974	11895	 6	403	334	162
        Todd Helton	58.4	-0.1	1973	 9011	 5	309	164	 95
        Bobby Abreu	57.2	-0.4	1974	 9926	 7	353	 94	 79
      Ichiro Suzuki	54.6	 1.6	1973	 8723	 7	287	218	108
       Johnny Damon	52.1	 0.1	1973	10917	 3	307	 90	 56
       Mike Cameron	43.2		1973	 7884	 3	243	 13	 28
  Nomar Garciaparra	42.0		1973	 6116	 6	219	112	 70
      Miguel Tejada	42.3		1974	 9038 	 4	284	148	 83
      Jason Kendall	38.3		1974 	 8702 	 1	245	108	 55
    Magglio Ordonez	34.6		1974	 7745 	 4	245	114	 62
      Hideki Matsui	18.6	-1.4	1974	 5066 	 1	150	 36	 25
      Bartolo Colon	36.0	 2.6	1973	2393.1	 3	193	 58	 27
         Derek Lowe	31.8	-0.3	1973	2658.1	 2	218	 53	 26
         Joe Nathan	22.7	 1.9	1974	 794.0	 0	175	 84	 56
        R.A. Dickey	12.9	 5.7	1974	1059.1	 1	 78	 24	  9

You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1973 and 1974.