Predicting the 2014-2018 BBWAA Election Results

[Nerdlinger]

This is sort of like shooting in the dark, but let's give it a go anyway. My prediction from January of last year for the 2013 BBWAA election wasn't too far off base, although I foolishly thought someone would actually be elected.

Things I got right:
Biggio and Morris are at the head of the pack
Bagwell and Piazza in the 50-75% range
Bonds, Clemens, Smith, and Trammell in the 25-50% range
Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Sosa, and Walker in the 5-25% range
Lofton, Wells, and Williams in the <5% range

Things I got wrong:
Biggio and Morris performed worse than I expected, placing in 50-75% instead of 75+%
Raines performed better than I expected, placing in 50-75% instead of 25-50%
Schilling and Martinez performed better, placing in 25-50% instead of 5-25%
Palmeiro performed better, placing in 5-25% instead of <5%

~~~~~~

Here's my new set of predictions for the next five years (subject to change):

2014
75 and up: Glavine, Maddux
50 to <75: Bagwell, Biggio, Morris*, Piazza, Thomas
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, E. Martinez, Raines, Schilling, Smith, Trammell
5 to <25: Kent, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Mussina, Sosa, Walker
<5: L. Gonzalez, Palmeiro, etc.

2015
75 and up: Biggio, Johnson
50 to <75: Bagwell, P. Martinez, Piazza, Thomas
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, E. Martinez, Raines, Schilling, Smith, Smoltz, Trammell
5 to <25: Kent, Mattingly*, McGriff, McGwire, Mussina, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Delgado, Garciaparra, Giles, etc.

2016
75 and up: Griffey, Piazza
50 to <75: Bagwell, P. Martinez, Smoltz, Thomas
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, E. Martinez, Mussina, Raines, Schilling, Smith, Trammell*
5 to <25: Hoffman, Kent, McGriff, McGwire, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Edmonds, Glaus, Kendall, Wagner, etc.

2017
75 and up: Bagwell, P. Martinez
50 to <75: Schilling, Smith*, Smoltz, Thomas
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, E. Martinez, Mussina, Raines, I. Rodriguez
5 to <25: Guerrero, Hoffman, Kent, McGriff, McGwire, Ramirez, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Cameron, Drew, Posada, Tejada, Vazquez, etc.

2018
75 and up: C. Jones, Thomas
50 to <75: Raines, Schilling, Smoltz
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, E. Martinez, Mussina, I. Rodriguez
5 to <25: Guerrero, Hoffman, Kent, McGriff, McGwire, Ramirez, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Vizquel, etc.

~~~~~~

Given this year's results, my assuming that two players will be elected each year may be rather optimistic, I admit.

Comments? Be sure to submit some of your own predictions.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

2014 Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Craig Biggio
2015 Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez
2016 Tom Glavine, Ken Griffey Jr.
2017 Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell
2018 Chipper Jones, John Smoltz

[Nerdlinger]

2014 Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Craig Biggio
2015 Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez
2016 Tom Glavine, Ken Griffey Jr.
2017 Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell
2018 Chipper Jones, John Smoltz

I don't think Thomas is a slam dunk. Certainly, he's Hall-worthy, but won't the writers treat him like Bagwell and Piazza because he's a power hitter from the '90s/'00s? He's also primarily a DH, so those who don't like Edgar aren't necessarily going to support Thomas. He does have 500 HR going in his favor, but that doesn't really mean a whole lot anymore.

[Bothrops Atrox]

2014: Maddux, Thomas, Biggio
2015: Johnson, Pedro, Glavine
2016: Griffey, Bagwell
2017: Piazza, Smoltz
2018: Jones, Raines

[Nerdlinger]

2014: Maddux, Thomas, Biggio
2015: Johnson, Pedro, Glavine
2016: Griffey, Bagwell
2017: Piazza, Smoltz
2018: Jones, Raines

Maybe I'm pessimistic, but I don't see Pedro getting in first ballot either. While, like Thomas, he belongs in the Hall, he doesn't have the longevity or milestones that guys like Maddux, Glavine, and Johnson have. There are a lot of non-sabermetric writers out there who might not place a priority on Martinez.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I think the writers will treat Pedro Martinez with a Sandy Koufax type of respect and Frank Thomas will more than likely get in because of his Ted Williams peak and anti steroids stance.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Maybe I'm pessimistic, but I don't see Pedro getting in first ballot either. While, like Thomas, he belongs in the Hall, he doesn't have the longevity or milestones that guys like Maddux, Glavine, and Johnson have. There are a lot of non-sabermetric writers out there who might not place a priority on Martinez.

You could be right, but the man got crazy ink, esp. in Boston. 3 Cy Youngs, many people like Ken Burns calling him one of the most "dominant pitchers ever". 8 AS games, 7 top 4 Cy Young finishes, an even larger sabermetric presence in a few years, etc. Just a guess, but I bet he gets in right away. But then again two years ago, I thought Piazza and Biggio would get in first ballot too.

[Cowtipper]

My predictions from last year for the holdovers and what really happened:

(Name, my prediction, what he really received, difference)

Jack Morris, 73.9%, 67.7%, -6.2%
Jeff Bagwell, 62.0%, 59.6%, -2.4%
Tim Raines, 57.6%, 52.2%, -5.4%
Alan Trammell, 43.9%, 33.6%, -10.3%
Edgar Martinez, 36.5%, 35.9%, -0.6%
Larry Walker, 25.4%, 21.6%, -3.8%
Fred McGriff, 25.0%, 20.7%, -4.3%
Don Mattingly, 18.6%, 13.2%, -5.4%
Mark McGwire, 17.3%, 16.9%, -0.4%
Dale Murphy, 15.9%, 18.6%, 2.7%
Rafael Palmeiro, 13.5%, 8.8%, -4.7%
Bernie Williams, 8.9%, 3.3%, -5.6%

I was off by 10% or more on only one player and I was within 1% of the actual total received with two of the guys.

Here are my predictions for next year for the holdovers, assuming the voters pull their heads out of their collective butts and make use of a good chunk of the number of votes they are allowed:

Craig Biggio, 77.5%
Jack Morris, 72.3%
Jeff Bagwell, 67.8%
Mike Piazza, 65.9%
Tim Raines, 58.6%
Curt Schilling, 49.0%
Lee Smith, 47.9%
Roger Clemens, 38.5%
Barry Bonds, 37.0%
Alan Trammell, 36.8%
Edgar Martinez, 35.9%
Larry Walker, 22.1%
Fred McGriff, 20.5%
Mark McGwire, 14.9%
Sammy Sosa, 13.4%
Don Mattingly, 12.3%
Rafael Palmeiro, 7.6%

That's just the holdovers. I'm working on the first-ballot guys now.

[Nerdlinger]

How do you calculate the predicted percentages?

[Cowtipper]

How do you calculate the predicted percentages?

Devil's magic.

It's not a concrete formula or anything, I use past voting as a guide to predict future voting.

[Cowtipper]

Here are my overall predicted results, with newcomers and holdovers combined. I tend to shoot high with first timers.

Greg Maddux, 95.0%
Craig Biggio, 77.5%
Frank Thomas, 72.6%
Jack Morris, 72.3%
Tom Glavine, 68.2%
Jeff Bagwell, 67.8%
Mike Piazza, 65.9%
Tim Raines, 58.6%
Curt Schilling, 49.0%
Lee Smith, 47.9%
Roger Clemens, 38.5%
Barry Bonds, 37.0%
Alan Trammell, 36.8%
Edgar Martinez, 35.9%
Jeff Kent, 32.2%
Mike Mussina, 29.4%
Larry Walker, 22.1%
Fred McGriff, 20.5%
Mark McGwire, 14.9%
Sammy Sosa, 13.4%
Don Mattingly, 12.3%
Rafael Palmeiro, 7.6%

<---cut-off--->

Luis Gonzalez, 3.8%
Ray Durham, 3.3%
Kenny Rogers, 2.7%
Moises Alou, 2.1%
Todd Jones, 0.8%
Armando Benitez, 0.5%
Sean Casey, 0.5%
Richie Sexson, 0.5%
Shannon Stewart, 0.5%
Hideo Nomo, 0.4%
Damion Easley, 0.3%
Matt Morris, 0.2%
Jon Lieber, 0.0%
Mike Timlin, 0.0%
Jose Vidro, 0.0%
Jose Cruz, Jr. - won't appear on ballot
Keith Foulke - won't appear on ballot
Eric Gagne - won't appear on ballot
Scott Hatteberg - won't appear on ballot
Jacque Jones - won't appear on ballot
Esteban Loaiza - won't appear on ballot
Paul Lo Duca - won't appear on ballot
Trot Nixon - won't appear on ballot
Jay Payton - won't appear on ballot
J.T. Snow - won't appear on ballot

[Bothrops Atrox]

Here are my overall predicted results, with newcomers and holdovers combined. I tend to shoot high with first timers.

[I]
Tom Glavine, 60.2%]

Way too low for a guy with 300+ wins, 2 Cy Youngs, 5-20 win seasons, 10 All Start Games, a World Series MVP, and tons of postseason/National TV exposure. He may not get in first ballot, but he will get a lot higher than 60%. No PED connections, image as being a real good guy, going in with Maddux angle, etc. 70% - 77% is my guess.
Small sample size, but I heard a roundtable with 7-8 writers who were asked about the 2014 ballot and they all said they were voting for Glavine.

[Cowtipper]

Way too low for a guy with 300+ wins, 2 Cy Youngs, 5-20 win seasons, 10 All Start Games, a World Series MVP, and tons of postseason/National TV exposure. He may not get in first ballot, but he will get a lot higher than 60%. No PED connections, image as being a real good guy, going in with Maddux angle, etc. 70% - 77% is my guess.

We'll see.

Glavine had a 3.54 ERA...bad in the eyes of voters.

He was never a superstar on par with names like Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, even Schilling for that matter. He doesn't have 3,000 strikeouts. He lost over 200 games.

Don't get me wrong, in a perfect world he'd be in on the first ballot, but knowing how too many voters of the BBWAA operate, I don't think that's going to happen--nor do I think he's going to get 70% of the vote. He has to compete with a stacked ballot, plus he played in the 1990s and 2000s...and just by playing in that era is enough, apparently, to get anyone penalized by a good chunk of electors.

Early Wynn started at 27.9%, Sutton at 56.8%, Niekro at 65.7%, Gaylord Perry at 68.0%. Like I said, we'll see.

[Bothrops Atrox]

We'll see.

Glavine had a 3.54 ERA...bad in the eyes of voters.

He was never a superstar



Early Wynn started at 27.9%, Sutton at 56.8%, Niekro at 65.7%, Gaylord Perry at 68.0%. Like I said, we'll see.

1. Unlike Sutton, Wynn, etc., Glavine was never perceived as a compiler. He finished top 3 in Cy Young voting six times. He won 20 games five times in an era in which that was unheard of. He was a 10-time All Star, way more than most of the guys you mentioned - even more than some of the big 4.

2. Voters know he finished in the top 10 in ERA 10x. They may not know that his RA+ is 121, but they know how impressive that is in that era. Compared to Morris 3.9 in a pitcher's era, it will look pretty good.

3. I will say this caveat. Glavine is currently:

24th all-time on Baseball Ref. WAR.
20th all-time on Baseball Ref WAA
12th since 1950 in BBProsp. WARP
25th all-time in Win Shares Above Bench
31st all-time in Win Shares
17th all-time in Baseball Gauges WAR
28th all time in Fangraphs RA9 Wins
24th all-time in Adam D.s Hall of Stats
32nd all-time in JAWS

On one hand, Glavine is a sabermetric shoo-in. Easy HOFer. On the other hand, since Schilling and Mussina rank higher in most of these stats, the sabercrowd might inadvertently put him down while trying to boost Schilling and Mussina.

4. There are tons of guys with fewer than 3,000 K's in the HOF. Many that were not high K guys. That has never seemed to hurt pitchers if their other credentials were good enough.

5. I think playing in the 90's will help pitchers, as most of the perceived clean ones will be seen as the "anti-big, PED'd sluggers"

I am not sure he will make it first ballot, but I think he clears 70%.

[Bothrops Atrox]

cow - quick question, were you watching baseball in the early-mid 90's?

Unit was not a mega-star until mid 90s. Clemens was thought of as on the way out most of the early through mid 90's. Brown was a nobody until 1996. Smoltz was never considered a HOF level pitcher until 1996. Schilling was a nobody until about 1997. Pedro had his big breakthrough in 1997. Mussina was always criminally overlooked. Maddux and Glavine were the big pitching stars in the majors the first half of the decade, without question. Even if others were as good or better in reality.