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This is the 13th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Hideki Matsui has a good case if the HOF ever gives strong consideration to his play in Japan. Hiroki Kuroda was a top pitcher in Japan for many years.
--R.A. Dickey won the CY as a 37-year-old knuckleballer, so you never know how long he'll go on.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1974 and 1975.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Hideki Matsui has a good case if the HOF ever gives strong consideration to his play in Japan. Hiroki Kuroda was a top pitcher in Japan for many years.
--R.A. Dickey won the CY as a 37-year-old knuckleballer, so you never know how long he'll go on.
Code:
Player WAR/pos 2012 Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Alex Rodriguez 111.4 2.0 1975 11163 13 471 371 190
Derek Jeter 69.3 2.1 1974 11895 6 403 334 162
Scott Rolen 66.6 0.3 1975 8518 7 304 99 65
Bobby Abreu 57.2 -0.4 1974 9926 7 353 94 79
Vladimir Guerrero 55.2 -- 1975 9059 6 324 209 108
Torii Hunter 44.4 5.5 1975 7887 2 236 44
Miguel Tejada 42.3 -- 1974 9038 4 284 148 83
J.D. Drew 42.4 -- 1975 6153 2 206 20
Jason Kendall 38.3 -- 1974 8702 1 245 108 55
Placido Polanco 38.9 0.3 1975 7471 2 212 42 34
David Ortiz 36.4 2.9 1975 7649 3 236 117 58
Magglio Ordonez 34.6 -- 1974 7745 4 245 114 62
Hideki Matsui 18.6 -1.4 1974 5066 1 150 36 25
Tim Hudson 51.9 1.3 1975 2682.1 3 255 57 35
Chris Carpenter 31.9 0.1 1975 2219.1 3 178 70
Livan Hernandez 27.3 -1.4 1975 3189.0 2 184 41
Joe Nathan 22.7 1.9 1974 794.0 0 175 84 56
Francisco Cordero 16.1 -1.6 1975 824.2 0 155 82 47
Hiroki Kuroda 13.8 5.2 1975 918.2 1 68 4
R.A. Dickey 12.9 5.7 1974 1059.1 1 78 24 9
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