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Future Hall of Famers #13: Players Born 1974-75

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  • Future Hall of Famers #13: Players Born 1974-75

    This is the 13th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the five (5) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    --Hideki Matsui has a good case if the HOF ever gives strong consideration to his play in Japan. Hiroki Kuroda was a top pitcher in Japan for many years.
    --R.A. Dickey won the CY as a 37-year-old knuckleballer, so you never know how long he'll go on.
    Code:
                 Player	WAR/pos	2012	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
         Alex Rodriguez	111.4	 2.0	1975	11163	13	471	371	190
            Derek Jeter	 69.3	 2.1	1974	11895	 6	403	334	162
            Scott Rolen	 66.6	 0.3	1975	 8518	 7	304	 99	 65
            Bobby Abreu	 57.2	-0.4	1974	 9926	 7	353	 94	 79
      Vladimir Guerrero	 55.2	 --	1975	 9059 	 6	324	209	108
           Torii Hunter	 44.4	 5.5	1975	 7887 	 2	236	 44	
          Miguel Tejada	 42.3	 --	1974	 9038 	 4	284	148	 83
              J.D. Drew	 42.4	 --	1975	 6153	 2	206	 20	
          Jason Kendall	 38.3	 --	1974	 8702 	 1	245	108	 55
        Placido Polanco	 38.9	 0.3	1975	 7471	 2	212	 42	 34
            David Ortiz	 36.4	 2.9	1975	 7649	 3	236	117	 58
        Magglio Ordonez	 34.6	 --	1974	 7745	 4	245	114	 62
          Hideki Matsui	 18.6	-1.4	1974	 5066	 1	150	 36	 25
             Tim Hudson	 51.9	 1.3	1975	2682.1	 3	255	 57	 35
        Chris Carpenter	 31.9	 0.1	1975	2219.1	 3	178	 70	
        Livan Hernandez	 27.3	-1.4	1975	3189.0	 2	184	 41	
             Joe Nathan	 22.7	 1.9	1974	 794.0	 0	175	 84	 56
      Francisco Cordero	 16.1	-1.6	1975	 824.2	 0	155	 82	 47
          Hiroki Kuroda	 13.8	 5.2	1975	 918.2	 1	 68	  4				
            R.A. Dickey	 12.9	 5.7	1974	1059.1	 1	 78	 24	  9
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1974 and 1975.
    136
    Bobby Abreu
    4.41%
    6
    Chris Carpenter
    2.21%
    3
    Francisco Cordero
    0.00%
    0
    R.A. Dickey
    1.47%
    2
    J.D. Drew
    0.00%
    0
    Vladimir Guerrero
    20.59%
    28
    Livan Hernandez
    0.00%
    0
    Tim Hudson
    5.15%
    7
    Torii Hunter
    0.00%
    0
    Derek Jeter
    19.85%
    27
    Jason Kendall
    0.74%
    1
    Hiroki Kuroda
    0.00%
    0
    Hideki Matsui
    0.00%
    0
    Joe Nathan
    0.00%
    0
    Magglio Ordonez
    1.47%
    2
    David Ortiz
    8.09%
    11
    Placido Polanco
    0.00%
    0
    Alex Rodriguez
    16.91%
    23
    Scott Rolen
    17.65%
    24
    Miguel Tejada
    1.47%
    2
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    Jeter's the only sure thing here. A-Rod's got a shot, depending on how quickly he fades now and how big a stain the voters believe the steroid allegations to be. That leaves Abreu, Guerrero and Rolen as the borderline ones, slightly over Hunter and Ortiz.
    Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

    1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

    Comment


    • #3
      My ranking of selected players:

      1. Alex Rodriguez - WILL MAKE IT
      2. Derek Jeter - WILL MAKE IT
      3. Vladimir Guerrero - WILL MAKE IT
      4. David Ortiz - WILL MAKE IT, eventually
      5. Miguel Tejada - not sure if he'll get much support, could be a long time until people push for him
      6. Bobby Abreu - slight/moderate support, but not sure if he's my #5
      7. Scott Rolen - long wait, but WILL MAKE IT - his case will build stronger over time by the voters
      8. Joe Nathan - scant support
      ------HOF---------
      9. Francisco Cordero
      ------Tolerable----
      10. Magglio Ordonez
      11. Tim Hudson
      12. Jason Kendall
      13. Hideki Matsui
      14. Ugueth Urbina
      15. Brian Fuentes
      16. Chris Carpenter
      17. Derrek Lee
      18. Luis Castillo
      19. Torii Hunter
      20. Carlos Guillen
      21. Placido Polanco
      22. Kevin Millwood
      23. Livan Hernandez
      24. JD Drew
      25. Darin Erstad
      26. R.A. Dickey
      27. Hiroki Kuroda

      Comment


      • #4
        A-Rod, Jeter, and Guerrero will make it. Rolen should, but probably won't given the track record of 3B and HOF voting through history. At least by the writers, anyway. Abreu is about finished and no writer or person in the medi thinks he is a HOFer - not sure why that would change. Ortiz and Tejada have the double whammy working against them - counting stat shortages and PED issues. Hudson is the one guy that could add enough to the table with a few bounceback years towards the end. Not likely, but possible.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

        Comment


        • #5
          Down to the last four days in this one, with a three-horse race for the final money spot.
          Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

          Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

          Comment


          • #6
            Who voted for R.A. Dickey? Maybe he'll win 20 games a year for the next ten years though.
            "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

            Comment


            • #7
              A-Rod
              Ortiz
              Rolen
              Jeter
              Guerrero
              “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

              "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

              Comment


              • #8
                Rodriguez
                jeter
                Guerrero
                Rolen
                Abreu
                "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

                Comment


                • #9
                  I voted Carpenter, Dickey, Guerrero, Jeter and Rolen. Of those five, I only expect Jeter and Vlad to actually make it. I would not balk at Rolen being inducted eventually.
                  The Writer's Journey

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