Lance Johnson HOF talent?

[jjpm74]

Lance Johnson played in MLB from 1987-2000. Johnson had a late start and early decline which suppressed his career stats.

During his peak years (ages 26-32), Johnson led the league in hits 2 times, triples 5 times. His WAR spread over that peak was 2.3-2.8-3.5-5.8-1.4-3.4-7.0. Over that stretch, Johnson also showed some defensive brilliance, with his best defensive years coming in 1991, 1992 and 1993.

Johnson's best year came during his final full time season in 1996 where in 160 games, he had 227 hits and 21 triples which was a single season modern record until 2007. That same year, Johnson was an All-Star and finished 18th in MVP voting. For his career, Johnson hit 117 triples and stole 327 bases.

Fan EloRater ranks Johnson 639th all-time. JAWS places him 73rd at his position (CF).

Did Johnson have HOF ability, or was he the product of his era?

[GiambiJuice]

I read it as "Lance Armstrong" and had to do a double take.

To answer the question posed in the thread title - no.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ichiro and Johnson are similar type of players. Ichiro has longevity over Johnson, though.

[GiambiJuice]

Ichiro and Johnson are similar type of players. Ichiro has longevity over Johnson, though.

Ichiro has a lot more than longevity over Johnson. Their rate stats aren't even close.

[Captain Cold Nose]

No. He was actually a bit unique for his era. Speedy CF types, like Milt Cuyler, usually flamed out well before Johnson did. Kenny Lofton lite.

[dgarza]

or was he the product of his era?

Not sure what you mean by his? What about him might be specifically a product of this specific era?

The thing that jumps out at you is all those seasons of leading in Triples.

Hmmmm... speedy type CFers who were kind of similar to Johnson from the last few decades?
Kenny Lofton, Willie Wilson, Marquis Grissom, Johnny Damon, Brett Butler, and Juan Pierre all were similar from their mid-20s to mid-30s. I'll even throw Mookie Wilson in the mix. Well, defensively there might be differences among these players; I didn't really look much into that aspect yet.

[GiambiJuice]

Well, he's 19th in hits among CFers between the ages of 26-32, so I guess he has something going for him.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

double post

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ichiro has a lot more than longevity over Johnson. Their rate stats aren't even close.

I said the same type of players, not the same stats. Both were good fielding, singles hitters who stole lots of bases. In Johnson's best season he hit .333/.362/.479, 227 H, 21 triples, 117 R, 50 SB, 9 HRs, 69 RBI, 31 doubles. That looks like a typical Ichiro season to me.

[PVNICK]

He came along maybe a generation too late but then again Brock may be the only high average, basestealer type that is in the HOF since the deadball era. Maybe he could have had a Max Carey type career had he been born 80 years earlier and certain restrictions not been in place.

[Cowtipper]

I've wondered about Lance Johnson myself. I'd say he had some potential, like any player like him has some potential, though I have to think his stellar 1996 was a fluke more than anything. He's a bit too Erstad-esque (perhaps a tad better)--he had one stupendous season with a bunch of decent-to-good ones wrapped around it.

[TomBodet]

Lance woulda been tops in the 70's on astroturf, esp for the Cards or Astros, say. Pretty good player who had that huge 1996. Max Carey mention for the win.

[jjpm74]

Not sure what you mean by his? What about him might be specifically a product of this specific era?

The thing that jumps out at you is all those seasons of leading in Triples.

Hmmmm... speedy type CFers who were kind of similar to Johnson from the last few decades?
Kenny Lofton, Willie Wilson, Marquis Grissom, Johnny Damon, Brett Butler, and Juan Pierre all were similar from their mid-20s to mid-30s. I'll even throw Mookie Wilson in the mix. Well, defensively there might be differences among these players; I didn't really look much into that aspect yet.

For clarity:

Max Carey's name has been tossed around in this thread. Would Lance Johnson have been on a HOF track if he played in Max Carey's era? If Max Carey played in Lance Johnson's era, would he be a HOFer? What about Willie Davis, another speedster who often gets lost in the shuffle? Do we undervalue the speedy hot glove outfielder when evaluating HOF cases?

Johnson had some years that would have been considered great in other eras. In 1996, he had his best year. That same year we had Brady Anderson hit 50 home runs. Bernard Gilkey belting 30 HRs and ending up with a higher WAR than his teammate Lance Johnson. It was the steroids era and players like Lance Johnson, who probably did not use steroids might have gotten lost in the shuffle.

Injuries and a late start keep Lance Johnson well out of the HOF. He is an interesting player who seems to have had the ability at his best to be a top tier CF.

[PVNICK]

Maybe I am off but Max's HOF case rests on SB crowns, defensive ability whether actual or perceived, his own hitting prowess and longevity. I am inclined to add playing for WS teams but cannot say for certain that he was with Pitt in 25/27 or 1909.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm not enamored of Max Carey as a HOFer, but Max was a far better player than Johnson. 1996 was Johnson's best year, and it is a fluke, out of context with most of his career. Carey routinely put down such years in his prime years. Johnson was not the percentage base-stealer Carey was; Johnson led the league in times caught stealing, but never in steals. Carey was significantly more patient at the plate, whereas Johnson was a hacker in the Mickey Rivers-Willie McGee mold. Indeed, plate discipline is something Johnson never really had, and that is why he never really had HOF potential; he was a hacker whose other skills weren't HOF caliber.