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Future Hall of Famers #14: Players Born 1975-76

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  • Future Hall of Famers #14: Players Born 1975-76

    This is the 14th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    --Hiroki Kuroda was a top pitcher in Japan for many years.
    Code:
                  Player	WAR/pos  2012	Born	PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
          Alex Rodriguez	111.4	 2.0	1975	11163	13	471	371	190
             Scott Rolen	 66.6	 0.3	1975	 8518	 7	304	 99	 65
       Vladimir Guerrero	 55.2	  --	1975	 9059 	 6	324	209	108
           Lance Berkman	 49.0	 0.5	1976	 7520 	 6	306	 98	 72
            Torii Hunter	 44.4	 5.5	1975	 7887 	 2	236	 44	
               J.D. Drew	 42.4	  --	1975	 6153 	 2	206	 20	
         Placido Polanco	 38.9	 0.3	1975	 7471	 2	212	 42	 34
             David Ortiz	 36.4	 2.9	1975	 7649 	 3	236	117	 58
          Edgar Renteria	 28.9	  --	1976	 9066	 1	236	109	 54
            Paul Konerko	 25.3	 1.4	1976 	 8761	 0	246	 80	 50
         Alfonso Soriano	 24.2	 1.8	1976	 7531	 3	220	 88	 54
           Michael Young	 22.1	-2.4	1976	 8047    0	228	120	 70
              Tim Hudson	 51.9	 1.3	1975	2682.1	 3	255	 57	 35
          Javier Vazquez	 42.7	  --	1976	2840.0	 5	213	 27	
         Chris Carpenter	 31.9	 0.1	1975	2219.1	 3	178	 70	
         Livan Hernandez	 27.3	-1.4	1975	3189.0	 2	184	 41	
       Francisco Cordero	 16.1	-1.6	1975	 824.2	 0	155	 82	 47
           Hiroki Kuroda	 13.8	 5.2	1975	 918.2	 1	 68	  4
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1975 and 1976.
    98
    Lance Berkman
    10.20%
    10
    Chris Carpenter
    2.04%
    2
    Francisco Cordero
    0.00%
    0
    J.D. Drew
    0.00%
    0
    Vladimir Guerrero
    23.47%
    23
    Livan Hernandez
    0.00%
    0
    Tim Hudson
    5.10%
    5
    Torii Hunter
    2.04%
    2
    Paul Konerko
    5.10%
    5
    Hiroki Kuroda
    0.00%
    0
    David Ortiz
    7.14%
    7
    Placido Polanco
    0.00%
    0
    Edgar Renteria
    0.00%
    0
    Alex Rodriguez
    21.43%
    21
    Scott Rolen
    20.41%
    20
    Alfonso Soriano
    2.04%
    2
    Javier Vazquez
    0.00%
    0
    Michael Young
    1.02%
    1
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    That 4th slot is quite a tossup.
    *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

    Comment


    • #3
      They're all kind of tough! No sure things on this list with the A-Roid backlash. I do think he's got about the best shot here, and the others that I voted for are pretty much borderline- Rolen, who's probably got the next best shot, Vlad (quick decline to most of his game) and Konerko (a sentimental choice who might get to some lofty numbers if he keeps playing and quits threatening retirement).
      Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

      1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

      Comment


      • #4
        Tough 4th Choice but:

        Berkman
        Rolen
        Rodriguez
        Guerrero
        “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

        "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

        Comment


        • #5
          Shoot, I got this mixed up with the best hitter/best pitcher born in such and such a year poll. I don't believe Chris Carpenter is a future HOFer, let alone one of the only two.

          A-Rod was the best player, Vlad should get in. Probably Rolen and Konerko would be my other choices.
          Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
          Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
          Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
          Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
          Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

          Comment


          • #6
            1. Alex Rodriguez - WILL MAKE IT
            2. Vladimir Guerrero - WILL MAKE IT
            Lance Berkman - might make it eventually
            3. David Ortiz - WILL MAKE IT, eventually
            4. Scott Rolen - long wait, but WILL MAKE IT - his case will build stronger over time by the voters

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by dgarza View Post
              1. Alex Rodriguez - WILL MAKE IT
              2. Vladimir Guerrero - WILL MAKE IT
              Lance Berkman - might make it eventually
              3. David Ortiz - WILL MAKE IT, eventually
              4. Scott Rolen - long wait, but WILL MAKE IT - his case will build stronger over time by the voters
              Ortiz? No. Even Edgar has an uphill climb. Ortiz probably will be one and done.
              *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by DJC View Post
                Ortiz? No. Even Edgar has an uphill climb. Ortiz probably will be one and done.
                Edgar did not have the visibility Ortiz had. Not even close. Ortiz's popularity is going to help him in the voting big time. (The postseason, Top 5 in MVP voting 5 years straight, 8 ASGs, with 5 starts, some as a 1B, not DH).
                Last edited by dgarza; 01-18-2013, 12:39 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by dgarza View Post
                  Edgar did not have the visibility Ortiz had. Not even close. Ortiz's popularity is going to help him in the voting big time. (The postseason, Top 5 in MVP voting 5 years straight, 8 ASGs, with 5 starts, some as a 1B, not DH).
                  OK, fair enough. He may survive at least one year on the ballot. But I sincerely doubt he'll ever get the nod.
                  *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! *** Also: Buck the Fraves!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    1. Vlad Guerrero
                    2. Alex Rodriguez
                    -------------------
                    3. Scott Rolen
                    -------------------
                    Tossup betwen David Ortiz, Lance Berkman, Edgar Renterria, Tim Hudson and Chris Carpenter. I went with Tim Hudson. Edgar Martinez is struggling to stay on the ballot as a non-PEDs player. David Ortiz does not have a shot.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I went with Vlad, Rodriguez, Rolen and Hudson. I can see both Berkman and Konerko making it too though.
                      "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                      "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Berkman
                        Guerrero
                        Rodriguez
                        Rolen
                        Last edited by bluesky5; 01-18-2013, 03:41 PM.
                        "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I couldn't bring myself to even vote for 4, but I think there are two that are very worthy (ARod and Vlad) and one that will probably have support that I don't feel he deserves (Ortiz).

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Vladdy, Konerko, Rolen and Soriano. You guys almost have me convinced on Rolen. Almost.
                            The Writer's Journey

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                            • #15
                              This poll closes Sunday night so you have until then to register your vote, if you have not already done so.:twocents:
                              Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                              Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                              Comment

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