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This is the 14th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the four (4) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Hiroki Kuroda was a top pitcher in Japan for many years.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1975 and 1976.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
--Hiroki Kuroda was a top pitcher in Japan for many years.
Code:
Player WAR/pos 2012 Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Alex Rodriguez 111.4 2.0 1975 11163 13 471 371 190
Scott Rolen 66.6 0.3 1975 8518 7 304 99 65
Vladimir Guerrero 55.2 -- 1975 9059 6 324 209 108
Lance Berkman 49.0 0.5 1976 7520 6 306 98 72
Torii Hunter 44.4 5.5 1975 7887 2 236 44
J.D. Drew 42.4 -- 1975 6153 2 206 20
Placido Polanco 38.9 0.3 1975 7471 2 212 42 34
David Ortiz 36.4 2.9 1975 7649 3 236 117 58
Edgar Renteria 28.9 -- 1976 9066 1 236 109 54
Paul Konerko 25.3 1.4 1976 8761 0 246 80 50
Alfonso Soriano 24.2 1.8 1976 7531 3 220 88 54
Michael Young 22.1 -2.4 1976 8047 0 228 120 70
Tim Hudson 51.9 1.3 1975 2682.1 3 255 57 35
Javier Vazquez 42.7 -- 1976 2840.0 5 213 27
Chris Carpenter 31.9 0.1 1975 2219.1 3 178 70
Livan Hernandez 27.3 -1.4 1975 3189.0 2 184 41
Francisco Cordero 16.1 -1.6 1975 824.2 0 155 82 47
Hiroki Kuroda 13.8 5.2 1975 918.2 1 68 4
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