Tweet
Our friend, Cowtipper, has started a number of posts to assess players as to whether they are HOFers or not. Most of them are not, and we all know it, but the value of such discussions is in (A) analyzing why a player is not a HOFer, and (B) trying to ascertain how far away a player is/was from actually being a player worthy of induction into the HOF. One of the categories mentioned a lot is “HOF potential”. Did the player have the potential to be a HOFer, but his career did not pan out to where he really merited induction to the HOF.
This begs the question: What, exactly, ought we mean when we say that a player had HOF potential? What do we look for to say that this or that player could have been a HOFer if something were different? What is the difference between wishful thinking and a true case of a guy who might have been a HOFer if something had broken different for him?
Most “potential HOFers” are guys who have posted some HOF-type seasons, or won a major award, or were considered (at least) the best player in the league at their position for a time, but did not end up with the kind of counting stats that spell HOF. When this happens, there are some questions as to help sort out the question. For example:
1. Did the player have at least some core of seasons in his career where he was viewed by observers of the time as a guy that was destined for the HOF? I tend to look more closely at a player who had 3-5 top-tier seasons in succession. The more spread apart such seasons are, the less I am inclined to view the player as a potential HOFer. It’s the difference between Don Mattingly and Mickey Vernon. Neither, really is a HOFer, all things considered, but Mattingly concentrated his accomplishments into a four (4) year period where he was accurately viewed as an inner-circle HOFer, before his back began to give him woe. Vernon, on the other hand, was inconsistent from season to season, and never hit the kind of peak Mattingly hit.
2. If a guy came close to hitting “magic HOF milestones”, how many milestones did he come close to hitting. Was it only one milestone (3,000 hits, 500 HRs), or was it a broad-based “close but no cigar”? If circumstances were different, would he have been able to hit such milestones in a normal career span (e. g. Fred McGriff hitting 500 HRs), or would he have had to experience an unusually lengthened career (e.g., Jamie Moyer reaching 300 wins, Steve Finley reaching 3,000 hits)?
3. Was what happened to the player that caused him to not be viewed as a HOFer something beyond his control, or something not a consequence of his abilities or playing styles? If a pitcher blew out his arm, was it due to poor mechanics that strained his arm, but gave him that super slider or cut fastball? If a player was a young player with old players skills, was his skill-set or body type such that he was not likely to age well? Was the player on course for the HOF at a relatively demanding defensive position, but then shifted to an easier defensive position where his offensive production was not as impressive (Kevin Mitchell, Roy Smalley)?
4. Did the player’s problems stem from substance abuse or emotional problems? Were the underlying problems of such a nature that they overtook the player after he showed greatness (Doc Gooden, Darryl Strawberry), or were they issues that occurred before the player really established stardom (Milton Bradley)?
I think there’s a difference between a “potential” HOFer and a “borderline” HOFer or a “peak value” HOFer. Dizzy Dean is a peak value HOFer. Tim Raines, if he makes it, is a peak-value HOFer (although he has a number of circumstances that apply to “potential” HOFers). Harold Baines is a “borderline” HOFer, more or less on the wrong side of the borderline. Jack Morris is a borderline HOFer, on the right side (IMO). These are my picks for a real “potential” HOF team:
1B: Hal Trosky
Trosky’s career was ruined by migraine headaches; if he had not been so afflicted, he would likely have posted numbers similar to Johnny Mize.
2B: Chuck Knoblauch
Knoblauch was on a clear HOF path until 1999, when he lost the ability to throw accurately, a la Steve Blass. He was shifted to LF, but he didn’t hit well enough for the position, and declined swiftly. He later was named in the Mitchell report, but the evidence suggests that he wasn’t using PEDs in his best years with the Twins.
SS: Ray Chapman
The only MLB player to die as a result of a beaning. The Indians of 1919 were a rising team. If Chapman had lived, he’d have posted the kind of career numbers that would have put him in the HOF in the 1960s. He would have benefitted from the offensive inflation of the 1920s; his numbers are better than a number of contemporaries that are in the HOF.
3B: Eric Chavez
Chavez’s injuries will keep him out of the HOF. His recent resurgence shows an amazing retention of ability through years of injury.
LF: Lou Piniella
RF: Richie Scheinblum
I’m putting these two guys together as peas in a pod. Scheinblum (born in 1942) and Pinella (born in 1943) were contemporaries in the Indian farm system during the 1960s. Both were college guys, but both were, IMO, clearly ready for a major league job long before they got one. It is utterly amazing that the 1968 Indians, a team that overachieved by winning 86 games, only to finish last in the AL East in 1969, played Lee Maye in LF (ahead of Piniella) and Vic Davalillo in RF (ahead of Scheinblum. Both of these guys were on the same 1968 Topps Rookie Card, but neither was given a job. Both were ready for a shot at a regular job as early as 1967, based on their minor league records; Bill James would have graded both of these guys as Grade B prospects in the spring of 1968.
Piniella had the longer career. He started late, and he ended up being platooned a lot with the Yankees (who stockpiled stars in the 1970s). He was a guy who had broad-based skills, and would have been able to approach 3,000 hits if he had been given a job early in his career and kept there. He gained fame as a Yankee, but that hurt his status; he was a guy who could still play regularly, but there were always other guys to work into the lineup, plus the Yanks signed Reggie Jackson in 1977. He would have been a guy who would have been toward the bottom of the HOF, but he had the potential to have a HOF career that was short-circuited by circumstances beyond his control, most of them in his developmental years with Cleveland.
Scheinblum is largely forgotten, but he had the greater potential, IMO, and why he did not obtain and keep a regular MLB job is an utter mystery to me. He has a .671 OWP in a 1967 cup of coffee. He had a .689 OWP in 1972, his only full-time season (with the Royals), and .660 in 1973 (.701 with the Angels). He was a .300 hitter who drew walks. It is absolutely baffling to me as to why Scheinblum wasn’t given a job and allowed to succeed.
I am sure that Piniella and Scheinblum had their shortcomings. Maybe they had a lousy spiring in 1968. But the 1968 Indians started LEE MAYE!!!!! in LF and VIC DAVALILLO!!!!! in RF. Old guys going nowhere! I think that these guys are exhibits A and B as to the chronic stupidity of the Indians ownership and management. (I hope to write a longer essay on this, but I’d need to do some research.)
CF: Brett Butler
Brett Butler would have been a HOFer if he had been given the Brave CF job in 1980 and left there. Butler was hurt by going to college; he tore through the minor leagues and was a star at each level of the minors, indicating that the Braves started Butler too low in their minor league system. Butler’s overall career is below the borderline, but he came back from tonsil cancer to hit .283 with a .363 OWP at age 40, playing CF and LF. Butler bounced around between four (4) different teams and was not strongly identified with any one of those teams; this factor hurts HOFers. Butler is, to a lesser degree than Piniella and Schienblum, an example of just how being in the wrong place with the wrong people hurt a guy’s chances.
C: Ray Fosse
In 1970, Ray Fosse hit .307, with a .646 OWP. What happened halfway through the 1970 season, was an unusually brutal collision with Pete Rose in the All-Star game. He was never the same after that. He slumped during the second half of the season and was never the same player. There have been a number of catchers that have had star rookie seasons, only to flame out; Rick Wilkins and Geovany Soto come to mind. But Fosse had a specific event (the Rose collision) that affected his development; it was the first of a series of injuries that diminished Fosse’s career. Fosse had a number of fluke injuries, the worst of which was a crushed disk he received not through playing, but through breaking up a fight between Reggie Jackson and Bill North in the Oakland clubhouse.
SP: Doc Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, Don Newcombe, Larry Jackson
Three of these guys were diminished by injuries; Gooden and Newcombe had substance abuse issues as well. Gooden, Newcombe, and Saberhagen are familiar to everyone here.
Larry Jackson was a guy with a record close to .500 who had a big season with the Cubs, but often played on losing teams. His career ERA was 3.40, and he posted a 2.77 ERA in 1968, but retired, rather than pitch for the Expos, who took him in the expansion draft. Had Jackson pitched with better teams, he’d have won 20 games more often, and he would have gone onto the HOF. He also would likely have not retired in 1969, boosting his career win totals, but his 1968 season was very, very good, given the horrible shape of the Phillies that year.
This begs the question: What, exactly, ought we mean when we say that a player had HOF potential? What do we look for to say that this or that player could have been a HOFer if something were different? What is the difference between wishful thinking and a true case of a guy who might have been a HOFer if something had broken different for him?
Most “potential HOFers” are guys who have posted some HOF-type seasons, or won a major award, or were considered (at least) the best player in the league at their position for a time, but did not end up with the kind of counting stats that spell HOF. When this happens, there are some questions as to help sort out the question. For example:
1. Did the player have at least some core of seasons in his career where he was viewed by observers of the time as a guy that was destined for the HOF? I tend to look more closely at a player who had 3-5 top-tier seasons in succession. The more spread apart such seasons are, the less I am inclined to view the player as a potential HOFer. It’s the difference between Don Mattingly and Mickey Vernon. Neither, really is a HOFer, all things considered, but Mattingly concentrated his accomplishments into a four (4) year period where he was accurately viewed as an inner-circle HOFer, before his back began to give him woe. Vernon, on the other hand, was inconsistent from season to season, and never hit the kind of peak Mattingly hit.
2. If a guy came close to hitting “magic HOF milestones”, how many milestones did he come close to hitting. Was it only one milestone (3,000 hits, 500 HRs), or was it a broad-based “close but no cigar”? If circumstances were different, would he have been able to hit such milestones in a normal career span (e. g. Fred McGriff hitting 500 HRs), or would he have had to experience an unusually lengthened career (e.g., Jamie Moyer reaching 300 wins, Steve Finley reaching 3,000 hits)?
3. Was what happened to the player that caused him to not be viewed as a HOFer something beyond his control, or something not a consequence of his abilities or playing styles? If a pitcher blew out his arm, was it due to poor mechanics that strained his arm, but gave him that super slider or cut fastball? If a player was a young player with old players skills, was his skill-set or body type such that he was not likely to age well? Was the player on course for the HOF at a relatively demanding defensive position, but then shifted to an easier defensive position where his offensive production was not as impressive (Kevin Mitchell, Roy Smalley)?
4. Did the player’s problems stem from substance abuse or emotional problems? Were the underlying problems of such a nature that they overtook the player after he showed greatness (Doc Gooden, Darryl Strawberry), or were they issues that occurred before the player really established stardom (Milton Bradley)?
I think there’s a difference between a “potential” HOFer and a “borderline” HOFer or a “peak value” HOFer. Dizzy Dean is a peak value HOFer. Tim Raines, if he makes it, is a peak-value HOFer (although he has a number of circumstances that apply to “potential” HOFers). Harold Baines is a “borderline” HOFer, more or less on the wrong side of the borderline. Jack Morris is a borderline HOFer, on the right side (IMO). These are my picks for a real “potential” HOF team:
1B: Hal Trosky
Trosky’s career was ruined by migraine headaches; if he had not been so afflicted, he would likely have posted numbers similar to Johnny Mize.
2B: Chuck Knoblauch
Knoblauch was on a clear HOF path until 1999, when he lost the ability to throw accurately, a la Steve Blass. He was shifted to LF, but he didn’t hit well enough for the position, and declined swiftly. He later was named in the Mitchell report, but the evidence suggests that he wasn’t using PEDs in his best years with the Twins.
SS: Ray Chapman
The only MLB player to die as a result of a beaning. The Indians of 1919 were a rising team. If Chapman had lived, he’d have posted the kind of career numbers that would have put him in the HOF in the 1960s. He would have benefitted from the offensive inflation of the 1920s; his numbers are better than a number of contemporaries that are in the HOF.
3B: Eric Chavez
Chavez’s injuries will keep him out of the HOF. His recent resurgence shows an amazing retention of ability through years of injury.
LF: Lou Piniella
RF: Richie Scheinblum
I’m putting these two guys together as peas in a pod. Scheinblum (born in 1942) and Pinella (born in 1943) were contemporaries in the Indian farm system during the 1960s. Both were college guys, but both were, IMO, clearly ready for a major league job long before they got one. It is utterly amazing that the 1968 Indians, a team that overachieved by winning 86 games, only to finish last in the AL East in 1969, played Lee Maye in LF (ahead of Piniella) and Vic Davalillo in RF (ahead of Scheinblum. Both of these guys were on the same 1968 Topps Rookie Card, but neither was given a job. Both were ready for a shot at a regular job as early as 1967, based on their minor league records; Bill James would have graded both of these guys as Grade B prospects in the spring of 1968.
Piniella had the longer career. He started late, and he ended up being platooned a lot with the Yankees (who stockpiled stars in the 1970s). He was a guy who had broad-based skills, and would have been able to approach 3,000 hits if he had been given a job early in his career and kept there. He gained fame as a Yankee, but that hurt his status; he was a guy who could still play regularly, but there were always other guys to work into the lineup, plus the Yanks signed Reggie Jackson in 1977. He would have been a guy who would have been toward the bottom of the HOF, but he had the potential to have a HOF career that was short-circuited by circumstances beyond his control, most of them in his developmental years with Cleveland.
Scheinblum is largely forgotten, but he had the greater potential, IMO, and why he did not obtain and keep a regular MLB job is an utter mystery to me. He has a .671 OWP in a 1967 cup of coffee. He had a .689 OWP in 1972, his only full-time season (with the Royals), and .660 in 1973 (.701 with the Angels). He was a .300 hitter who drew walks. It is absolutely baffling to me as to why Scheinblum wasn’t given a job and allowed to succeed.
I am sure that Piniella and Scheinblum had their shortcomings. Maybe they had a lousy spiring in 1968. But the 1968 Indians started LEE MAYE!!!!! in LF and VIC DAVALILLO!!!!! in RF. Old guys going nowhere! I think that these guys are exhibits A and B as to the chronic stupidity of the Indians ownership and management. (I hope to write a longer essay on this, but I’d need to do some research.)
CF: Brett Butler
Brett Butler would have been a HOFer if he had been given the Brave CF job in 1980 and left there. Butler was hurt by going to college; he tore through the minor leagues and was a star at each level of the minors, indicating that the Braves started Butler too low in their minor league system. Butler’s overall career is below the borderline, but he came back from tonsil cancer to hit .283 with a .363 OWP at age 40, playing CF and LF. Butler bounced around between four (4) different teams and was not strongly identified with any one of those teams; this factor hurts HOFers. Butler is, to a lesser degree than Piniella and Schienblum, an example of just how being in the wrong place with the wrong people hurt a guy’s chances.
C: Ray Fosse
In 1970, Ray Fosse hit .307, with a .646 OWP. What happened halfway through the 1970 season, was an unusually brutal collision with Pete Rose in the All-Star game. He was never the same after that. He slumped during the second half of the season and was never the same player. There have been a number of catchers that have had star rookie seasons, only to flame out; Rick Wilkins and Geovany Soto come to mind. But Fosse had a specific event (the Rose collision) that affected his development; it was the first of a series of injuries that diminished Fosse’s career. Fosse had a number of fluke injuries, the worst of which was a crushed disk he received not through playing, but through breaking up a fight between Reggie Jackson and Bill North in the Oakland clubhouse.
SP: Doc Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, Don Newcombe, Larry Jackson
Three of these guys were diminished by injuries; Gooden and Newcombe had substance abuse issues as well. Gooden, Newcombe, and Saberhagen are familiar to everyone here.
Larry Jackson was a guy with a record close to .500 who had a big season with the Cubs, but often played on losing teams. His career ERA was 3.40, and he posted a 2.77 ERA in 1968, but retired, rather than pitch for the Expos, who took him in the expansion draft. Had Jackson pitched with better teams, he’d have won 20 games more often, and he would have gone onto the HOF. He also would likely have not retired in 1969, boosting his career win totals, but his 1968 season was very, very good, given the horrible shape of the Phillies that year.
Comment