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Future Hall of Famers #15: Players Born 1976-77

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  • Future Hall of Famers #15: Players Born 1976-77

    The late 70's looks to be a pretty dry period for the birthing of hall of famers. So we're only voting for three in the next few elections.

    This is the 15th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the three (3) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.

    One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?

    A few notes on the stats below:
    --For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
    --A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
    --“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
    --”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
    --”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
    --”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
    Code:
               Player	WAR/pos	2012	Born	 PA/IP	4.5 Yrs	 WS	oHOFm	nHOFm
       Carlos Beltran	62.3	 3.6	1977	 8349  	  8	304	100	 68
         Andruw Jones	59.5	 0.2	1977	 8664	  8	276	109	 63
        Lance Berkman	49.0	 0.5	1976	 7520	  6	306	 98	 72
        Rafael Furcal	37.6	 1.2	1977	 7200	  2	224	 54	 34
           Troy Glaus	35.0	  --	1976	 6355	  2	189	 59	 34
          Eric Chavez	34.0	 1.5	1977	 5893	  3	177	 29	 26
       Edgar Renteria	28.9	  --	1976	 9066	  1	236	109	 54
         Paul Konerko	25.3	 1.4	1976	 8761	  0	246	 80	 50
      Alfonso Soriano	24.2	 1.8	1976	 7531  	  3	220	 88	 54
           Carlos Lee	24.5	-0.4	1976	 8787	  1	249	 78	 50
        Michael Young	22.1	-2.4	1976	 8047	  0	228	120	 70
          Juan Pierre	15.4	 1.9	1977	 7950	  0	179	 62	 36
         Roy Halladay	62.3	 0.6	1977	2687.1	  8	278	124	 61
           Roy Oswalt	48.8	-0.3	1977	2213.0	  6	215	 62	 33
       Javier Vazquez	42.7	  --	1976	2840.0	  5	213	 27
    You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1976 and 1977.
    76
    Carlos Beltran
    27.63%
    21
    Lance Berkman
    15.79%
    12
    Eric Chavez
    0.00%
    0
    Rafael Furcal
    0.00%
    0
    Troy Glaus
    0.00%
    0
    Roy Halladay
    30.26%
    23
    Andruw Jones
    13.16%
    10
    Paul Konerko
    9.21%
    7
    Carlos Lee
    0.00%
    0
    Roy Oswalt
    1.32%
    1
    Juan Pierre
    0.00%
    0
    Edgar Renteria
    0.00%
    0
    Alfonso Soriano
    2.63%
    2
    Javier Vazquez
    0.00%
    0
    Michael Young
    0.00%
    0
    Other (please specify)
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.

    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    I went with Roy Halladay, Andrew Jones and Paul Konerko.
    "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

    "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

    Comment


    • #3
      Berkman and Beltran are the class of this group, though they're both borderline. Then it's down to Halladay or Konerko. With Konerko, it's pretty much down to how much longer he plays and how much traditional numbers are still looked at by the time he's done. It's almost a coin toss, but I'm going Konerko, mainly 'cause he's got an ouside shot at 500 HR, and might end up one of the few of the era to reach the goal without a PED taint.
      Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

      1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

      Comment


      • #4
        I clicked Beltran, Berkman and Andruw Jones, then realized I'd missed Halladay. I edited the totals to take one from Berkman and add one to Doc.
        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • #5
          I thought I unchecked Konerko before hitting submit, but I guess I didn't.

          Please remove a vote for Paul Konerko. My three:

          Roy Halladay
          Carlos Beltran
          Lance Berkman

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
            I thought I unchecked Konerko before hitting submit, but I guess I didn't.

            Please remove a vote for Paul Konerko.
            Taken care of
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • #7
              Halladay, Beltran and Berkman. Resisting on voting for Jones. Too bad he hit that rapid decline. Otherwise, he'd be an easy pick.
              "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
              George Brett

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by yankillaz View Post
                Halladay, Beltran and Berkman. Resisting on voting for Jones. Too bad he hit that rapid decline. Otherwise, he'd be an easy pick.
                What he said...
                Your Second Base Coach
                Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
                http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

                Comment


                • #9
                  Halladay
                  Berkman
                  Beltran
                  “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                  "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Halladay, Konerko, Soriano. Halladay has the best shot, but he has to put up at least 3 more quality seasons.
                    The Writer's Journey

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      We're down to the last two days for this poll, looking at a dead heat for the final money spot.
                      Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                      Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        whoops I only clicked two. Halladay and Beltran. I guess Berkman would be 3rd. This list has Beltran, Berkman, Oswalt, Jones who will be on best player not in the hall lists for decades to come.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Halladay is well on his way, so he was an easy choice. With his combination of HR's, SB's, and defense, I think Beltran will get in . The third choice was tough. Nobody I feel entirely confident in, but I chose Berkman narrowly over Oswalt.

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