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The late 70's looks to be a pretty dry period for the birthing of hall of famers. So we're only voting for three in the next few elections.
This is the 15th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the three (3) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
You are encouraged to go beyond the stats offered here in researching these players. BB-Ref provides sortable lists for players born in 1976 and 1977.
This is the 15th poll to survey the BBF scholars as to who among recent players we think will be in the Hall of Fame 50 years from now. From the list of players provided, vote for the three (3) players you think are most likely to be enshrined in the Hall by the year 2063. So it’s not the guys you think are most deserving; it’s who you think the voters are most likely to elect. For more background and links to all elections go here: A New Project: Future Hall of Famers.
One thing you need to do is to predict what the voters of the next two generations will do regarding players from the “steroids era”. Will a future Veterans Committee have a more favorable view of players like Tejada, ARod, et al? Or will the “known cheaters” be pariahs forever?
A few notes on the stats below:
--For pitchers career WAR includes their offense.
--A column for 2012 WAR is now included because most of these players were active in MLB last season.
--“4.5 Yrs” is the number of years a guy performed at an all-star level, at least 4.5 WAR. This has not been adjusted for the 1994-95 short seasons. For pitchers it does not include offense, so someone like Glavine get short-changed.
--”WS” is career Win Shares from the annual Bill James Handbooks. For pitchers I have increased their total by 25% in an attempt to put them on the same scale as hitters. If you disagree with this, simply multiply the number shown by .80 and you will get pitchers’ “book total” of win shares.
--”oHOFm” is the old Hall of Fame Monitor number from BB-Ref, where 70 signifies a candidate, 100 signifies a likely election and 130 signifies almost certain election.
--”nHOFm” is the recalibration by Bill James of the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 signifies almost certain election.
Code:
Player WAR/pos 2012 Born PA/IP 4.5 Yrs WS oHOFm nHOFm
Carlos Beltran 62.3 3.6 1977 8349 8 304 100 68
Andruw Jones 59.5 0.2 1977 8664 8 276 109 63
Lance Berkman 49.0 0.5 1976 7520 6 306 98 72
Rafael Furcal 37.6 1.2 1977 7200 2 224 54 34
Troy Glaus 35.0 -- 1976 6355 2 189 59 34
Eric Chavez 34.0 1.5 1977 5893 3 177 29 26
Edgar Renteria 28.9 -- 1976 9066 1 236 109 54
Paul Konerko 25.3 1.4 1976 8761 0 246 80 50
Alfonso Soriano 24.2 1.8 1976 7531 3 220 88 54
Carlos Lee 24.5 -0.4 1976 8787 1 249 78 50
Michael Young 22.1 -2.4 1976 8047 0 228 120 70
Juan Pierre 15.4 1.9 1977 7950 0 179 62 36
Roy Halladay 62.3 0.6 1977 2687.1 8 278 124 61
Roy Oswalt 48.8 -0.3 1977 2213.0 6 215 62 33
Javier Vazquez 42.7 -- 1976 2840.0 5 213 27
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