Jason Heyward

[Cowtipper]

This is really premature, but Heyward already has 21.4 WAR and he's only 24. I think that's good. Right?

Jason Heyward has been in the league for five years and is hitting .258 with 81 home runs, 52 stolen bases and a 113 OPS+. He has been an All-Star once, won a Gold Glove once and in 2010, he finished 2nd in NL Rookie of the Year voting.

He's pretty darn good defensively and has already led the league in right fielder assists once, right fielder double plays once, outfield assists once, RF TZR once and RF Range Factor/9 IP once. He has the second best TZR among active right fielders (behind Ichiro Suzuki) and the sixth best TZR among active outfielders.

His most similar players list contains a lot of active and recent guys: Jody Gerut, Ryan Raburn, Will Venable, Matt Joyce, Jim Greengrass, Dick Kokos, Bubba Trammell, Jeremy Hermida, Johnny Rizzo and Rocco Baldelli.

His most similar comps list through age 23 - how old he was last year - looks pretty promising for his Hall of Fame chances: Jack Clark, Barry Bonds, Tom Brunansky, Lloyd Moseby, Boog Powell, Curt Blefary, Johnny Callison, Jeff Francoeur, Carl Yastrzemski and Greg Luzinski populate the list. Being so young, he could go in either the Blefary direction or the Bonds direction, but that such big names are on the list is noteworthy. Through age 20, he was most similar to Hall of Famer Sam Crawford. He currently ranks #829 on the Fan EloRater, between Whitey Kurowski and Whitey Lockman.

Career projections using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

1729 G
7043 PA
6185 AB
984 R
1592 H
327 2B
40 3B
247 HR
740 RBI
133 SB
740 BB
1421 K
59.4 WAR

He has a knock against him already - he was so highly touted coming up and, since he hasn't lived up to the expectations a lot of people set for him, he has been hit with the 'disappointment tag.' That tag is really, REALLY tough to shake. Despite playing at a star-superstar level for the past five years, Adrian Beltre is just now beginning to shed the disappointment tag in a lot of people's eyes.

What are your thoughts on Jason Heyward? When he retires, should he make the Hall of Fame? Does he have Hall of Fame potential?

[SamtheBravesFan]

Potential? Yes. Will he get to the Hall? Probably not.

[dominik]

he is a good player who puts up good WAR numbers also due to his great defense but he will need to improve his .258 career BA. He does have power but he is not the kind of slugger that can get in with a .260 BA (like killebrew who has well over 500 HRs).

I don't think he is a dissapointment since he is very productive but it will be very tough for a .260 hitter with 15-25 HRs annually to make the hall.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Potential? Yes. Will he get to the Hall? Probably not.

If Heyward were from a Latin American country, there would be all sorts of speculation that he lied about his age a la Junior Felix et al. As he isn’t, I will say that it’s rare, indeed, for a guy who plays at the left end of the defensive spectrum (RF) to peak at age 21 and go downhill. Heyward’s .668 OWP in his rookie year was consistent with a young HOFer, but he’s never touched this again, not even in 2012, when he hit 27 HRs.

Heyward reminds me in some ways of Dwight Evans; a RF with defensive and OBP skills to go with some power, but didn’t hit for a great BA and was inconsistent in displaying his power. Dewey didn’t have his big breakthrough until age 26, and then he was injured midway through the season, and regressed for a few more years. Heyward broke through to the big leagues at an earlier age than Evans, suggesting greater innate talent, but Evans didn’t regress in the way Hayward has regressed from his age 20 season without a plausible reason (usually injuries).

For a guy who gets the star treatment, Heyward really hasn’t done much to be considered a star, or even a coming star. He should be growing and improving, and he’s not; that begs the question of his work ethic, lifestyle, and general teachability. Did being ballyhooed at a young age ruin Heyward to where he won’t listen to advice that could help him? I don’t know. But at this time, he doesn’t project out to be a HOFer, period, and if this is all there is, he’s not going to get the opportunities to compile stats in his 30s to become a HOF mistake.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Heyward did listen to a lot of advice when he flopped his second year, Fuzzy. He's a hard worker. He just had unnecessary hype.

I don't think he gets the star treatment anymore in Atlanta. He is the Braves best defender, but he hasn't done anything superficial superstars do like hit 30 homers. The truth is the Braves really don't have a star anymore. The closest is Julio Teheran and people barely know who he is.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Heyward did listen to a lot of advice when he flopped his second year, Fuzzy. He's a hard worker. He just had unnecessary hype.

I don't think he gets the star treatment anymore in Atlanta. He is the Braves best defender, but he hasn't done anything superficial superstars do like hit 30 homers. The truth is the Braves really don't have a star anymore. The closest is Julio Teheran and people barely know who he is.

If he's teachable, then either (A) his rookie year was a huge fluke and overrated him, or (B) the advice and teaching he's getting from the Braves constitutes gross mishandling.

[SamtheBravesFan]

If he's teachable, then either (A) his rookie year was a huge fluke and overrated him, or (B) the advice and teaching he's getting from the Braves constitutes gross mishandling.

I'd lean more towards the latter because he matched the production of his rookie year somewhat in 2012. Otherwise decent players in Uggla and the elder Upton have descended into the depth of all-time grossness under this current coaching staff. When an article is published where your hitting coach is quoted as basically throwing up his hands and saying "I don't know what to do to fix things," it's probably time to get a new one.

Heyward is very injury-prone too, unlucky or otherwise. Take a bit of that into consideration too.

[Cougar]

Heyward did listen to a lot of advice when he flopped his second year, Fuzzy. He's a hard worker. He just had unnecessary hype.

I don't think he gets the star treatment anymore in Atlanta. He is the Braves best defender, but he hasn't done anything superficial superstars do like hit 30 homers. The truth is the Braves really don't have a star anymore. The closest is Julio Teheran and people barely know who he is.

Good heavens, how could you forget Andrelton Simmons, Sam?!

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'd lean more towards the latter because he matched the production of his rookie year somewhat in 2012. Otherwise decent players in Uggla and the elder Upton have descended into the depth of all-time grossness under this current coaching staff. When an article is published where your hitting coach is quoted as basically throwing up his hands and saying "I don't know what to do to fix things," it's probably time to get a new one.

Heyward is very injury-prone too, unlucky or otherwise. Take a bit of that into consideration too.

The HOF model for Jason Heyward, as of this moment in time, is that he projects out as a guy whose only hope to make the HOF is to reach 3,000 hits. If he is the Braves best defensive player, why is Heyward not the CENTER fielder. He HAS been a better player than B. J. Upton, who is a total bust, and who is probably not even at replacement level for a CENTER fielder. I think the Braves would do well to (A) establish Heyward as their CF, (B) move Justin Upton to RF, (C) come up with some sort of platoon combination for LF while a solution to B. J. Upton's albatross contract is worked out.

Doing this might prove the challenge Heyward might need to step his game up. Great players rise to challenges, and if Heyward has it in him to be great, this would be the way to go. As of now, Heyward is treading water as a corner OF with not enough power to keep him in a regular job when he grows old.

[Los Bravos]

So, he's disappointing, lazy, unteachable and has never had injury issues?

I learn the most fascinating stuff here.

[dominik]

If he's teachable, then either (A) his rookie year was a huge fluke and overrated him, or (B) the advice and teaching he's getting from the Braves constitutes gross mishandling.

What I read (by a poster in another forum who knows a lot about the swing and biomechanics) was that heyward is supposed to have a rather mechanically inefficient swing who compensates that with great athleticsim but this is creating some holes in his swing that pitchers are now exploiting.

according to him the problem is that this is not something easily fixed with something like "keep your hands inside a little more" but actually goes down to the very core of his swing sequence (using the lower body and ground reaction forces).

there is a concept called the kinetic chain. this concept means that you swing from the ground up using each body part in succession, starting with the legs then the hips, trunk and hands until you whip the barrel. you cannot active segments above until the lower ones have fired or you are out of sequence. you can see that concept very well in a discus thrower. he will first turn his rear leg, then his hips while the shoulders are still closed and then in the very end move his shoulders and the arm.

the guy said that heyward does turn his hips but basically the swing in driven by the upper half with the hips just following the turn and the legs not really being used. doesn't look all that different but the forces are not flowing the correct way.

this leads to him being in the need to start the swing early and maybe even "guess" so that he will be fooled on other stuff. to change that he would need to retool his complete swing and not do some minor adjustments. I can understand if a successful major leaguer is reluctant to completely abandon the way he swung for the last 15 years of his life because you never know how the new swing will work.

I'm not sure if this is true but if this was true it would be very sad because he is probably working hard to trying to make cosmetic changes to an inefficient swing which does not really solve the problem but on the negative side messes up his mind.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Good heavens, how could you forget Andrelton Simmons, Sam?!

I meant best defensive outfielder.

[dominik]

the braves do not have a lot of on base skill but they have very good pitching, defense and some Pop which makes them dangerous in a Playoff series (but they could also go really cold with their lack of contact ability).

[SamtheBravesFan]

the braves do not have a lot of on base skill but they have very good pitching, defense and some Pop which makes them dangerous in a Playoff series (but they could also go really cold with their lack of contact ability).

Of course. They made that bed, now they have to lay in it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

So, he's disappointing, lazy, unteachable and has never had injury issues?

I learn the most fascinating stuff here.

I think it's fair to speculate why Heyward hasn't progressed AT ALL from his overrated, but impressive, rookie season at age 21. To do what Heyward did at age 21 makes you a prospect for greatness, as opposed to a mere prospect. This isn't the typical growth curve for a player who was as good as Heyward as a 21 year old rookie. He's had some injuries, but not the kind of knee or back injuries that become chronic and permanently diminish a player.

If it's not Heyward that's the reason for his failure to develop beyond his rookie peak, then it's the fault of an organization that can't seem to develop talented players into stars. The Braves are now like the 2000s Dodgers; they're seriously living in the past, and can't seem to develop talent. Dave Justice had his injury issues and his limitations, but he got better after his rookie year and had a star career. What's different about Justice in that he can get better but Heyward can't? Heyward's failure to develop ought to set off alarm bells in Atlanta.