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  • Originally posted by redban View Post
    Over 30% of the season, he's at:

    46 G / 3 HR / 18 RBI / .257 / .321 / .408 / 95 OPS+ / 0.3 WAR

    40 games as a catcher. 1 as a DH, 1 as a 1B.

    Anyone still thinking he's going to be a HOFer?
    Hell yes. After hip surgery last August, Posey worked to make the Opening Day roster, spent two weeks on the IL already from a concussion and is on it for the second time now this year. He's 32 years old and suffering the worst season of his career in his 11th season. I suppose you're suggesting that he's washed up?


    Originally posted by JR Hart View Post
    I said last year that I think that he has tanked.

    2016-19 OPS+ 116

    2010-2015 OPS+ 141
    A catcher with a 141 OPS+ over a six-year prime followed by above average production in his decline phase? You call that "tanked", but I call it a HOF resume.


    I don't know what it is with some people playing Chicken Little every time a great player has a rough patch, much less a decline phase, but gimme a break. There's nothing to suggest that his career is over. I'm far more comfortable betting on Posey's performance than I am on some people's perceptions.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post




      A catcher with a 141 OPS+ over a six-year prime followed by above average production in his decline phase? You call that "tanked", but I call it a HOF resume.


      .
      As I Giants fan, I love Buster. But he's not the player that he was. Tanked may have a bad word, we will go with declining.

      I'd to see him have a couple more more big years to cement his HOF status

      This week's Giant

      #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

      Comment


      • Originally posted by JR Hart View Post
        As I Giants fan, I love Buster. But he's not the player that he was. Tanked may have a bad word, we will go with declining.

        I'd to see him have a couple more more big years to cement his HOF status
        I'm totally on board with that, which is what I would expect from any catcher his age. Like you, I hope Posey can post some more value-added seasons to his resume. It can only help his case.
        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

        Comment


        • Here's a thought experiment. Below are the seasonal WAA totals for Roy Campanella and Buster Posey.

          Campy / Posey
          4.9 / 5.7
          4.9 / 4.0
          3.3 / 3.4
          3.1 / 3.4
          2.8 / 3.0
          2.1 / 2.5
          0.9/ 2.1
          -0.8 / 1.5
          -1.2 / 0.8
          -1.5 / -0.2

          I'm not saying that Posey is necessarily better than Campanella. Certainly not if Posey's through. And you must remember that Campy debuted at 26, versus age 22 for Posey, and of course the former had a tragic end to his career that was unrelated to his skills as a baseball player. Campanella has some advantages. I don't consider the MVPs to be one of them because Campy didn't really deserve three.

          But Posey played in an era where exceeding the average major league player was more difficult and the final chapters of his book have yet to be written. Looking at what's happened already (not including the current season), their MLB production compares quite favorably for Posey, IMO.

          The point isn't to say that Posey > Campy; he isn't, at least not today. But rather that people think of Campanella is an all-time great. Posey's not far behind, my friends.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • Posey needs 2000 hits if he's going to make the HoF. He's not going to hit 175 career home runs and probably won't drive in 1000 runs. So far he's averaging 127 per season and that isn't going to hold unless he moves to first base full-time and that isn't going to happen as Belt is signed through 2021. The only way I see Posey making the HoF is if he can maintain his rate stats in a slightly reduced catching role -- 80-100 games a year -- while holding his .300 (currently .304) career batting average. That should keep his OPS+ around 115 every season and his WAR around 2. So in 500 PA he'd need 150 hits a year to hit .300. He seems to be sapped of his power and is only hitting .257 this year. Can a Giants fan tell me if he's trying too hard to hit for power and walk instead of hit for average and drive in and advance runners? RBI's are the only other stat he can hit a big numerical marker in. A good average is going to produce more RBI. If he hits .257 here on out he'd only get 128 hits per year it would take him 5½ years through the middle of his age 37 and he'd be a .282 career hitter. If he can get 150 hits per year it would take him 4 seasons to get 2000 and he'd be a .300 career hitter through the end of his age 35 season. That is a long career for a catcher who already can't seem to catch more than 100 games. If he can do it either way he has the fame, awards and narrative. He just needs the numbers. 2000 hits and a .300 career average make him an easy choice and 1000 RBI is icing on the cake.
            "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

            Comment


            • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
              Posey needs 2000 hits if he's going to make the HoF. He's not going to hit 175 career home runs and probably won't drive in 1000 runs. So far he's averaging 127 per season and that isn't going to hold unless he moves to first base full-time and that isn't going to happen as Belt is signed through 2021. The only way I see Posey making the HoF is if he can maintain his rate stats in a slightly reduced catching role -- 80-100 games a year -- while holding his .300 (currently .304) career batting average. That should keep his OPS+ around 115 every season and his WAR around 2. So in 500 PA he'd need 150 hits a year to hit .300. He seems to be sapped of his power and is only hitting .257 this year. Can a Giants fan tell me if he's trying too hard to hit for power and walk instead of hit for average and drive in and advance runners? RBI's are the only other stat he can hit a big numerical marker in. A good average is going to produce more RBI. If he hits .257 here on out he'd only get 128 hits per year it would take him 5½ years through the middle of his age 37 and he'd be a .282 career hitter. If he can get 150 hits per year it would take him 4 seasons to get 2000 and he'd be a .300 career hitter through the end of his age 35 season. That is a long career for a catcher who already can't seem to catch more than 100 games. If he can do it either way he has the fame, awards and narrative. He just needs the numbers. 2000 hits and a .300 career average make him an easy choice and 1000 RBI is icing on the cake.
              I think these are very good general points about how HOF voters have been in the past, but is this your personal belief also?

              For the raw average, hits, RBI you mention, he's playing in maybe the toughest pitchers park, and catchers I don't think have a 2,000 hits measuring stick, though other positions have.

              For me, he's done what he needed to earn admission, with maybe a small lead on other 4 catchers from his era (Mauer, Molina, Martin, McCann) for peak voters.

              Excellent peak + 3 world series wins should help with some of the older school voters.
              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

              Comment


              • For the second half of 2012, Posey somehow hit like prime Mike Piazza, won the MVP, and for the most part has been riding on that ever since. He is way behind Simmons, and well behind Posada, who had more WS championships.

                Comment


                • Posey is at the point where his career has been almost as long as Thurman Munson's. Posey has 41.5 WAR now, while Munson has 46.1 WAR for his career.

                  How much better is Posey than Munson? WAR says Munson was better. Perhaps Posey isn't making the progress toward the HOF people think he is.
                  "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                  NL President Ford Frick, 1947

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear View Post
                    Posey is at the point where his career has been almost as long as Thurman Munson's. Posey has 41.5 WAR now, while Munson has 46.1 WAR for his career.

                    How much better is Posey than Munson? WAR says Munson was better. Perhaps Posey isn't making the progress toward the HOF people think he is.
                    I think it's more likely that Munson is vastly underrated by people.
                    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

                      I think these are very good general points about how HOF voters have been in the past, but is this your personal belief also?

                      For the raw average, hits, RBI you mention, he's playing in maybe the toughest pitchers park, and catchers I don't think have a 2,000 hits measuring stick, though other positions have.

                      For me, he's done what he needed to earn admission, with maybe a small lead on other 4 catchers from his era (Mauer, Molina, Martin, McCann) for peak voters.

                      Excellent peak + 3 world series wins should help with some of the older school voters.
                      If he hovered around 1800 hits with a .282 career average it would be enough for me. I also don’t think Martin and McCann are getting in. If they had stayed with their original clubs I think they’d have a serious chance. Mauer doesn’t have the series wins but the Twins were a perennial contender under Gardenhire. Molina is a shoe in and the best of all these guys to me.

                      Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                      I think it's more likely that Munson is vastly underrated by people.
                      Definitely underrated

                      "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                        If he hovered around 1800 hits with a .282 career average it would be enough for me. I also don’t think Martin and McCann are getting in. If they had stayed with their original clubs I think they’d have a serious chance. Mauer doesn’t have the series wins but the Twins were a perennial contender under Gardenhire. Molina is a shoe in and the best of all these guys to me.
                        Maybe perennial playoff contender. They always seemed to draw the Yankees in the first round and would get their behinds handed to them every time:

                        2002 (Gardenhire's first year): lost ALCS in 6 to Angels
                        2003 & 2004: lost ALDS in 4 to Yankees
                        2006: swept in ALDS by Oakland
                        2009 & 2010: swept in ALDS by Yankees
                        2017 WCG (this time under Paul Molitor): lost to Yankees 8-4

                        they've pretty much defined "one-and-done playoff team" in the 21st century.

                        Comment


                        • More to the point, Mauer hit poorly in three of his four postseason opportunities. Perhaps that had something to do with his team's lack of progress in the playoffs? Not including his three-game performance in the 2009 ALDS, Mauer hit .214/.250/.214 (zero runs, zero RBI) n his other three postseasons combined.
                          Last edited by Chadwick; 06-11-2019, 06:14 PM.
                          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                            More to the point, Mauer hit poorly in three of his four postseason opportunities. Perhaps that had something to do with his team's lack of progress in the playoffs? Not including his three-game performance in the 2009 ALDS, Mauer hit .214/.250/.214 (zero runs, zero RBI) n his other three postseasons combined.
                            Insert mandatory Cobb & Williams reference.
                            "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post

                              Insert mandatory Cobb & Williams reference.
                              Cobb and Williams' regular season performances are so far above the line that their postseason performance is immaterial to their case. Mauer is a peak-only case and his poor PS play could reasonably be the difference maker for some people.
                              "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                              "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                              "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                              "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                                Cobb and Williams' regular season performances are so far above the line that their postseason performance is immaterial to their case. Mauer is a peak-only case and his poor PS play could reasonably be the difference maker for some people.
                                And in the case of Williams he played in just one World Series and he was injured.
                                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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