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  • #61
    Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post

    Yeah, I had him as a possible up until this year. That Cy Young isn't enough to make up for his awful after-30 seasons.
    I don't disagree that King Felix probably doesn't clear the bar.

    But, are his lousy recent seasons really that relevant? To me, the problem is more that Felix just wasn't good enough for long enough before his arm went bad.

    A lot of HOF pitchers were putrid their last season, or two, or sometimes four or five. (Steve Carlton comes to mind.) It's in fact awfully rare to go out on top, like say Sandy Koufax did. Generally, if you're still pitching well enough and you're physically able to keep going...hey, it beats working for a living, right?

    But if they were good enough prior to the crash, it doesn't matter.

    Felix, on the other hand, clearly needed more good seasons when he hit the wall.
    Cougar
    Registered User
    Last edited by Cougar; 06-16-2019, 06:40 PM.

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    • #62
      Cougar
      Registered User
      Cougar My reply re: Hernandez is over in his specific thread. See if you agree with me there.
      They don’t think it be like it is, but it do.

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      • #63
        He needs 7 more wins to get to 200. I think he has a good chance. Maybe not first ballet. but he should get it, imo.

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        • #64
          I'm not impressed. If Lester gets in than should open the door for dozens of better pitchers.

          My top 10 players:

          1. Babe Ruth
          2. Barry Bonds
          3. Ty Cobb
          4. Ted Williams
          5. Willie Mays
          6. Alex Rodriguez
          7. Hank Aaron
          8. Honus Wagner
          9. Lou Gehrig
          10. Mickey Mantle

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          • #65
            Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post

            I just don't see the Hall Of Fame in Jon Lester's future. He's been solid, durable, etc...but not "GREAT".

            Even if he averages 4 WAR per season for the nest 6 years (which is unlikely) that would only put him at 56.6 WAR, well behind guys like Luis Tiant, David Cone, and Rick Reuschel. Not to mention contemporaries like Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, etc.
            I posted this six years ago and I think it held up well.

            He's currently at 44.6 WAR. 119 ERA+ in just under 2,600 IP. That's a solid career but well short of the Hall of Fame IMHO.
            My top 10 players:

            1. Babe Ruth
            2. Barry Bonds
            3. Ty Cobb
            4. Ted Williams
            5. Willie Mays
            6. Alex Rodriguez
            7. Hank Aaron
            8. Honus Wagner
            9. Lou Gehrig
            10. Mickey Mantle

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            • #66
              Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post

              I posted this six years ago and I think it held up well.

              He's currently at 44.6 WAR. 119 ERA+ in just under 2,600 IP. That's a solid career but well short of the Hall of Fame IMHO.
              My request placed for BA to weight in, but PARC-d has Lester with a score of 85 and 111th all-time...the upcoming bequeathed runners analysis may move him higher yet.

              He's shy at this point, but maybe a good year or two puts him in a plausible bucket.
              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

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              • #67
                Jon Lester has been a steady, solid, very good pitcher for a while. He has consistenly ranked on the leader boards in wins and other statistics. He does well in the Cy Young voting when he is considered (72nd in career award shares there, and that is very respectable).
                But he is just outside my pHOF, which means he is farther off for most people. Lester will be 37 next season and I don't see him adding anything much to his career to push him over the line.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

                  My request placed for BA to weight in, but PARC-d has Lester with a score of 85 and 111th all-time...the upcoming bequeathed runners analysis may move him higher yet.

                  He's shy at this point, but maybe a good year or two puts him in a plausible bucket.
                  BQ runners dropped him one, but he is back up one for 2020 projections. And he is no longer good and about done. I would think he needs 6 more to make my HOF, and I dont think he gets there. GJ is right...there are couple of dozen guys or so between 80-90 that are all right there with Lester.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                  • #69
                    I'm in agreement that Lester has dropped off the HOF radar for all but the most generous of us. He needed an ace-level season, however shortened, to stay on it and it didn't happen.
                    They don’t think it be like it is, but it do.

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                    • #70
                      Lester retired. He won't make the HOF...but he will stay on some ballots due to how he performed in the postseason with some high-profile WS champs and with 200 wins.

                      Man, I hated rooting for the guy the two months he was in St. Louis. I kept hoping for the 10-8 voctories.
                      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                      • #71
                        Yeah just saw his announced retirement. Great career. No HOF

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                        • #72
                          In a better world, with a better Hall of Fame, he'd fit right in. In the one we've got, he's a near-miss. He'll have his supporters in the BBWAA, but it won't amount to much of a campaign. Great pitcher though.
                          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Lester as a HOFer opens up so many cans of worms.

                            If Lester, why not Jerry Koosman, who had a greater WAR for his career and played for weaker teams?

                            If Lester, why not Orel Hershiser, who had far higher peak value?

                            If Lester, why not Ron Guidry, who has a far higher peak?

                            If Lester, why not Mike Cuellar, who won a Cy Young Award, and whose career was, arguably, shortened somewhat by racism?

                            We could go on and on. There are just too many I could say this about. I feel better about ALL of the pitchers I just mentioned than I would about Jon Lester.
                            "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                            NL President Ford Frick, 1947

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                            • #74
                              121 Perry Jim 8596
                              122 Simmons Curt 8592
                              123 Niekro Joe 8557
                              124 Cooper Mort 8553
                              125 Lopat Ed 8434
                              126 Reuschel Rick 8420
                              127 Lester Jon 8408
                              128 McLain Denny 8392
                              129 Holtzman Ken 8376
                              130 Nehf Art 8309
                              131 Luque Dolf 8300
                              132 Coombs Jack 8247
                              133 Langston Mark 8234
                              This is the company he keeps for me. 6 above and 6 below. Seem about right for you? He was very good, but short of the HOF.

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                              • #75
                                Now that Lester is retired and two plus years have passed since I last wrote in this thread, I went ahead and updated that shorthand method, adding Gerrit Cole, too. The numbers aren't so important as the separation between pitcher groups. I gave some pro-rated credit to the 2020 season and I should note that this time I excluded pitcher offense from the results. This is pWAR/WAA only.

                                671 - Justin Verlander
                                663 - Clayton Kershaw
                                651 - Max Scherzer
                                630 - Zack Greinke
                                597 - Jacob deGrom
                                516 - Chris Sale
                                502 - CC Sabathia
                                496 - Cole Hamels
                                493 - Felix Hernandez
                                462 - Corey Kluber
                                446 - Jon Lester
                                439 - Adam Wainwright
                                415 - Gerrit Cole
                                401 - David Price
                                368 - Stephen Strasburg
                                326 - Madison Bumgarner

                                I really think that sums it up well. Career-wise Lester is probably very close to Wainwright. Neither had the kind of peak seasons that King Felix or Klu-bot put on the board, but then Kluber, for example, didn't have the sustained success of Lester and Waino.

                                So yeah, in a larger Hall of Fame, you bet. Lester is arguably one of the top 100 pitchers in baseball history. In a Hall that can't find room for Cone, Saberhagen, Tiant, Stieb, Hershiser, etc. I don't think Lester's case is terribly compelling. Certainly wouldn't be upset to see him get in.
                                "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                                "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                                Comment

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