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The HOF case For Carlos Beltran

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  • Beltre finishing in the top 5 in all of MLB in WAR four different times is a more accurate reflection of his baseball skills than his finish in MVP voting. He'd have deserved the NL award in 2004 had Barry Bonds not existed. The fact that voters undervalued Beltre's performance doesn't actually alter its value from what it was. Just as voters' perceptions of Dawson's value in 1987 (in the form of an undeserved MVP Award) doesn't actually make him the best player in the league that season. For a group of journalists whose collective judgment is frequently criticized by many in this forum (including myself) - and quite rightly in many cases - why should their judgments on annual awards be any less questionable? Contemporary opinion isn't worthless, but it sure isn't gospel.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
      Beltre finishing in the top 5 in all of MLB in WAR four different times is a more accurate reflection of his baseball skills than his finish in MVP voting. He'd have deserved the NL award in 2004 had Barry Bonds not existed. The fact that voters undervalued Beltre's performance doesn't actually alter its value from what it was. Just as voters' perceptions of Dawson's value in 1987 (in the form of an undeserved MVP Award) doesn't actually make him the best player in the league that season. For a group of journalists whose collective judgment is frequently criticized by many in this forum (including myself) - and quite rightly in many cases - why should their judgments on annual awards be any less questionable? Contemporary opinion isn't worthless, but it sure isn't gospel.
      This thread is about carlos Beltran, not Adrian Beltre. Beltre is in a similar situation, however...he really only had ONE MVP type year. IMO a third baseman is not a true MVP candidate unless his OPS+ is at least 150.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
        Cool list. Don't think I've ever seen Snider that low, but perhaps it's time I reevaluated my center fielders.
        Just changed. This is my most recent list:

        1. Willie Mays
        2. Ty Cobb
        3. Mickey Mantle
        4. Tris Speaker
        5. Ken Griffey Jr.
        6. Joe Dimaggio
        7. Duke Snider
        8. Carlos Beltran
        9. Andre Dawson
        10. Kirby Puckett
        *.- Mike Trout
        11. Billy Hamilton
        12. Jim Edmonds
        13. Andruw Jones
        14. Dale Murphy!!!
        15. Larry Doby
        16. Kenny Lofton
        17. Richie Ashburn
        18. Earl Averill
        19. Bernie Williams
        20. Fred Lynn
        .
        .
        .
        97. Lloyd Waner
        "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
        George Brett

        Comment


        • Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post

          You're right, that was my instinct talking. I do wonder how much people will remember him appropriately when his number comes up for voting, though. I can't help but believe he's in some kind of weird gray area.
          He's perceived to be in a gray area because he's not a lifetime .300 hitter, and he doesn't have the one counting stat that's an "automatic". He's not going to make it to 3,000 hits or 500 HRs; he's 40 years old and right at replacement level. He was a 5 tool, broad based player, and he suffers from the inability to compile because his talent is in all 5 tools, but he's not a Juan Samuel; a guy who hits well for his position but is poor in the field, has speed, but no OBP, etc. The thing that takes him out of the gray area is WAR. Since he's just over 70 WAR, it would be good for him to not try another season and end up at 69/9 WAR. The new metrics are Beltran's best HOF friend.
          "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

          NL President Ford Frick, 1947

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Yankillaz View Post

            Just changed. This is my most recent list:

            1. Willie Mays
            2. Ty Cobb
            3. Mickey Mantle
            4. Tris Speaker
            5. Ken Griffey Jr.
            6. Joe Dimaggio
            7. Duke Snider
            8. Carlos Beltran
            9. Andre Dawson
            10. Kirby Puckett
            *.- Mike Trout
            11. Billy Hamilton
            12. Jim Edmonds
            13. Andruw Jones
            14. Dale Murphy!!!
            15. Larry Doby
            16. Kenny Lofton
            17. Richie Ashburn
            18. Earl Averill
            19. Bernie Williams
            20. Fred Lynn
            .
            .
            .
            97. Lloyd Waner
            Here's my problem with these position lists. Beltran has played CF in just 63% of the games that he has started ( and that pct. will keep going down). Is fair to rate him over a player who played a much higher pct of their career starts in CF like Ashburn (93%) and B Williams (94%)??
            This week's Giant

            #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

            Comment


            • Originally posted by JR Hart View Post

              Here's my problem with these position lists. Beltran has played CF in just 63% of the games that he has started ( and that pct. will keep going down). Is fair to rate him over a player who played a much higher pct of their career starts in CF like Ashburn (93%) and B Williams (94%)??
              Good point. I gotta make a proper positional adjustment. But remember, Beltran will wind up playing 60% of his time as a CF, Ashburn played 93%, but still both played 100%. And I've penalized players, not Beltran yet for this fact when ranking on a position basis. But as an overall player, Beltran was better than both, and the gap between him and both players you've mentioned warrants this.

              Though, thank you for bringing this up. I will make a separate list of the best of the best, and compare them by position played and stats playing that position. This is for me to reconsider how I evaluate them.
              "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
              George Brett

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Yankillaz View Post

                Good point. I gotta make a proper positional adjustment. But remember, Beltran will wind up playing 60% of his time as a CF, Ashburn played 93%, but still both played 100%. And I've penalized players, not Beltran yet for this fact when ranking on a position basis. But as an overall player, Beltran was better than both, and the gap between him and both players you've mentioned warrants this.

                Though, thank you for bringing this up. I will make a separate list of the best of the best, and compare them by position played and stats playing that position. This is for me to reconsider how I evaluate them.
                Thanks

                Richie was from my wife's hometown, Tilden NE. He's a personal favorite.
                This week's Giant

                #5 in games played as a Giant with 1721 , Bill Terry

                Comment


                • Originally posted by JR Hart View Post

                  Thanks

                  Richie was from my wife's hometown, Tilden NE. He's a personal favorite.
                  I like him a lot too. I think he's a top 10 All Time CF, but my system is telling me otherwise. Gotta dig deeper.
                  "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
                  George Brett

                  Comment

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