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BBF Progressive HoF Election: 1935

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  • #46
    1900-1904 and 1895-1899, career win shares (no names!)

    During the five seasons 1900-1904, there were only 484 major league debuts. Here are the numbers of career win shares for the leaders by fielding position. This table covers the 18! players with 180 cws.

    debut 1900-1904, career win shares
    P: 425, 361, 296, 265, 255, 235, 231, 198, 191 [9 pitchers]
    C:
    1B:
    2B: 268, 222, 215*
    SS: 258
    3B: 198
    LF: 354, 187
    CF:
    RF: 239, 201

    * One man worked about six and four full seasons at two fielding positions. Otherwise not one of these few cws leaders worked even one full season equivalent at a second fieldpos.

    To get 30 players we must take everyone with 140 cws, namely the 12 men represented here.

    P: 169, 163, 151, 148
    C: 155
    1B:
    2B: 149**
    SS: 171**
    3B: 157*, 153**
    LF: 148, 146
    CF: 158**
    RF:

    ** At least one full season equivalent fielding both a second and a third fieldpos.

    six leading catchers: 155, 91, 77, 74, 73, 55

    --
    During the five seasons 1895-1899 there were only 372 major league debuts, namely National League debuts. Here are the numbers of career win shares for the leaders by fielding position. This covers 34 players with 180 cws.

    debut 1895-1899, career win shares
    P: 293, 287, 269, 243, 240, 212, 209, 206, 202, 200, 183 [11 pitchers]
    C: 231*
    1B: 238, 237*, 183
    2B: 496*, 207*, 205*
    SS: 655***, 184*
    3B: 274, 208*, 191
    LF: 339, 223, 180*
    CF: 328*, 290, 272, 260, 229, 211
    RF: 446, 291

    * Ten of these players worked at least one full season equivalent fielding games at at least one other fieldpos (one at three other fieldpos ***).

    six leading catchers: 231*, 98, 92, 89, 78, 77
    Last edited by Paul Wendt; 01-16-2009, 07:33 PM.

    Comment


    • #47
      debuts before 1895, summary

      Here are a few summary statistics for the 1890-1894 and earlier debuts.

      seasons : debuts , cWS >= 180
      1890-1894 : 445 , 25 inclg 9 pitchers
      1885-1889 : 348 , 25 inclg 6 pitchers
      1880-1884 : 590 , 26 inclg 12 pitchers
      1875-1879 : 207 , 9 inclg 3 pitchers
      1871-1874 : 243 , 5 inclg 1 pitcher

      Regarding the numbers of players who tallied at least 180 career win shares:
      - I have no account of win shares before 1876, the first National League season.
      - The numbers of win shares available for each team-season doubled between 1876-78 and 1885-87 along with the numbers of championship games. The League scheduled only 60 for each club in 1877-78, the first schedules anywhere, which grew to 126 NL and 140 AA in 1886-87.

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
        cWS All-America Team, debuts 1910-1914 (career win shares)
        P: Alexander (476), Rixey (315), Faber, Cooper, Jones, Coveleski, Luque, Pennock (240)
        I thought is was strange that 6 pitchers all had exactly 240 win shares in their careers. I Guess what you meant was that they all had at least 240. Here's what I have on them:

        Faber - 292
        Cooper - 266
        Coveleski - 245
        Jones - 245
        Luque - 241
        Pennock - 240
        .


        19th Century League Champion
        1900s League Champion
        1910s League Champion

        1930s League Division Winner
        1950s League Champion
        1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
        1960s League Division Winner
        1970s League Champion
        1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
        1980s League Champion
        All Time Greats League Champion

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
          - I have no account of win shares before 1876, the first National League season.
          From a thread that you were part of at Baseball Think Factory. Win shares for some of the big stars in the NA, from Chris Cobb - first the actual win shares and then adjusted win shares (adjusted to a later year full season). Then adjusted win shares for each player from 1876 on, and the career adjusted win shares. I guess this is Chris's estimate of each player's career win shares total if they had been playing 154 (or 162) game seasons. Not sure which standard he used.

          Player, 1871-1875
          Translated WS each season, 1871-1875 -- total
          Season adj. WS each season, 1871, 1875 -- total
          Other ML seasons played -- total adj. WS for those seasons
          Career adj. WS

          THE PLAYERS

          Cap Anson, 1871-75
          4.8, 14.5, 11.2, 10.2, 13 -- 53.7 total
          28, 52, 36, 30, 28 -- 174 total
          1876-1897 -- 567 adj. WS
          741 career

          Ross Barnes, 1871-1875
          9.8, 17.7, 23.4, 12.5, 23 -- 86.4 total
          53, 57, 63, 29,47 -- 249 total
          1876 -1881 93 adj. WS
          342 career

          Dave Eggler, 1871-75
          4.9, 13.2, 10.1, 12.7, 12.5 -- 53.4 total
          23, 39, 30, 35, 27 -- 154 total adj. WS
          1876-1885 -- 31 adj. WS
          185 career

          Bob Ferguson, 1871-75
          2.5, 5.7, 5.3, 5.6, 10.4 -- 29.5 total
          12, 25, 16, 16, 20 -- 89 total adj. WS
          1876-1884 -- 127 adj. WS
          216 career

          Davy Force, 1871-75
          4.8, 14.5, 10.5, 8.8, 17.4 -- 56.0 total
          24, 52, 34, 24, 35 -- 169 total adj. WS
          1876-1886 -- 96 adj. WS
          265 career

          Paul Hines, 1872-75
          .23, 5.5, 6.8, 13.3 -- 25.8 total
          3.5, 22, 18, 31 -- 75 total adj. WS
          1876-91 -- 419 adj. WS
          494 career

          Charley Jones, 1875
          1.3 -- 1.3 total
          15 -- 15 total adj. WS
          1876-88 --280 adj. WS
          295 career (missed two seasons due to blacklisting)

          Cal McVey, 1871-1875
          9, 7.6, 9.9, 16.6, 25.2 -- 68.3 total
          48, 24, 27, 38, 51 -- 188 total adj. WS
          1876-1879 -- 132 adj. WS
          320 career

          Levi Meyerle, 1871-75
          10.6, 5.4, 11.2, 12.9, 13.6 -- 53.7 total
          57, 19, 33, 35, 31 -- 175 total adj. WS
          1876-1878 -- 28 adj. WS
          203 career

          Jim O'Rourke, 1872-75
          2.4, 12.1, 13.0, 15.7 -- 43.2 total
          16, 33, 30, 32 -- 111 total adj. WS
          1876-93 -- 488 adj. WS
          599 career

          Dickey Pearce, 1871-75
          3.3, 4.0, 6.0, 8.0, 8.4 -- 29.7 total
          15, 12, 18, 24, 19 -- 88 total adj. WS
          1876-1877 -- 8 adj. WS
          96 career

          John Peters, 1874-75
          6.3, 11.9 -- 18.2 total
          19, 28 -- 47 total adj. WS
          1876-84 -- 121 adj. WS
          168 career

          Lip Pike, 1871-1875
          7.9, 9.1, 9.3, 14.8, 21.2 -- 62.3 total
          43, 33, 27, 44, 49 --196 total adj. WS
          1876-78 -- 81 adj. WS
          277 career

          Al Spalding, 1871-1875 BATTING ONLY
          1.8, 7.7, 7.6, 9, 10 -- 36.1 total
          10, 25, 21, 21, 20 -- 98 total adj. bWS
          1876, 77 -- 25 bWS
          123 career bWS

          Joe Start, 1871-1875
          4.5, 2.9, 3.8, 10.8, 10.9 -- 32.9 total
          21, 9, 11, 27, 25 -- 93 total adj. WS
          1876-86 -- 244 adj. WS
          337 career

          Ezra Sutton, 1871-1875
          8.4, 2.4, 10.9, 10.1, 17.3 -- 49.1 total
          45, 18, 35, 30, 37 -- 165 total adj. WS
          1876-1888 -- 273 adj. WS
          438 career

          Deacon White, 1871-1875
          4.5, 3.8, 14.4, 10.3, 23.5 -- 56.5 total
          24, 28, 39, 24, 48 -- 163 total adj. WS
          1876-90 -- 332 adj. WS
          495 career

          George Wright, 1871-1875
          6.7, 13.5, 20.4, 16.6, 22 -- 79.2 total
          36, 43, 55, 38, 45 -- 217 total adj. WS
          1876-1882 117 adj. WS
          334 career

          Harry Wright, 1871-75
          3.9, 3.4, 5.8, 6.4, 0 -- 19.5 total
          21, 11, 16, 15, 0 -- 63 total adj. WS
          63 career

          Tom York, 1871-75
          2.6, 6.9, 8.7, 5.7, 13.9 -- 37.8 total
          14, 22, 25, 17, 26 -- 104 total adj. WS
          76-85 -- 221 adj. WS
          325 career

          If his numbers are accurate then I'll have to eat my words about Ezra Sutton being a bad induction. According to this Sutton would have way over 400 win shares if he had been playing at a time when they were playing full length seasons.
          .


          19th Century League Champion
          1900s League Champion
          1910s League Champion

          1930s League Division Winner
          1950s League Champion
          1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
          1960s League Division Winner
          1970s League Champion
          1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
          1980s League Champion
          All Time Greats League Champion

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
            Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
            - I have no account of win shares before 1876, the first National League season.
            From a thread that you were part of at Baseball Think Factory. Win shares for some of the big stars in the NA, from Chris Cobb - first the actual win shares and then adjusted win shares (adjusted to a later year full season). Then adjusted win shares for each player from 1876 on, and the career adjusted win shares. I guess this is Chris's estimate of each player's career win shares total if they had been playing 154 (or 162) game seasons. Not sure which standard he used.
            Could you point me to which thread that is? I'd be very interested in looking through it. Thanks.
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by jalbright View Post
              Could you point me to which thread that is? I'd be very interested in looking through it. Thanks.

              http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...from_last_year
              .


              19th Century League Champion
              1900s League Champion
              1910s League Champion

              1930s League Division Winner
              1950s League Champion
              1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
              1960s League Division Winner
              1970s League Champion
              1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
              1980s League Champion
              All Time Greats League Champion

              Comment


              • #52
                Thanks, and that thread is worth looking at, but what I want to see most is the nuts and bolts of calculating these win shares from TPI for the National Association. If you could point me to that, I'd be most appreciative. Thanks.
                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                Comment


                • #53
                  re: 1871-75 win shares for 20 players, by Chris Cobb

                  Here is Chris Cobb's introduction to that table. He is [ed.] and I am {Ed.}.
                  15. Chris Cobb Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:58 PM (#1594606)
                  Originally Posted August 30, 2003

                  Win Share Translations for Selected National Association Players

                  This posting contains all of the translated win shares that I have calculated, based on the ratios between batting value and fielding value in the WS and WARP systems [according to the WARP1 numbers then in use for these players. Current WARP1 evaluations might be quite different. It might be interesting to see how the WARP evals have changed, if at all—ed. note 10/1/05 {presumably 2005-09-01 --Ed.}]. It includes all of the HoMers who played in the NA, all of the players currently appearing on ballots, and some other notable players of the National Association. Translations do not include any estimates for pitching WS. Al Spalding's listing including batting win shares only.

                  I posted my methodology for the translations on the McVey - Start thread; it should be findable there {much of it is lost in cyberspace -Ed.}, but I'm happy to address any questions about the translation methods.

                  Players are arranged alphabetically, but, in order of adjusted WS earned, 1871-75, they are Barnes, G. Wright, Pike, McVey, Meyerle, Anson, Force, Sutton, White, Eggler, O'Rourke, York, Spalding (batting only), Start, Ferguson, Pearce, Hines, H. Wright, Peters, Jones.

                  FORMAT

                  Player, 1871-1875
                  Translated WS each season, 1871-1875 -- total
                  Season adj. WS each season, 1871, 1875 -- total
                  Other ML seasons played -- total adj. WS for those seasons
                  Career adj. WS
                  What survives from the thread "Start and McVey" provides little more insight on the method.
                  To see what there is, begin at the preface to win shares estimates for McVey. by Chris Cobb, 2003-07-25. Many contributions to the Hall of Merit, and the latter portions of all longer contributions, were lost during a website reorganization (early 2004?).

                  The strategy for raw win shares is clear: estimate early Win Shares from early WARP by Clay Davenport, using data on Win Shares and WARP where both are available from James and Davenport, that is beginning 1876.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
                    Here is Chris Cobb's introduction to that table. He is [ed.] and I am {Ed.}.


                    What survives from the thread "Start and McVey" provides little more insight on the method.
                    To see what there is, begin at the preface to win shares estimates for McVey. by Chris Cobb, 2003-07-25. Many contributions to the Hall of Merit, and the latter portions of all longer contributions, were lost during a website reorganization (early 2004?).

                    The strategy for raw win shares is clear: estimate early Win Shares from early WARP by Clay Davenport, using data on Win Shares and WARP where both are available from James and Davenport, that is beginning 1876.
                    An Internet Archive version of "Start and McVey" exists! Here's the sought after posting:

                    Posted 6:21 p.m., July 23, 2003 (#27) - Chris Cobb
                    As promised here are career Win Shares for Cal McVey, as derived from WARP1

                    Year -- Total -- Batting / Fielding -- adj. To 162 games (from)
                    1871 -- 9 -- 7.8/1.2 -- 48 (30 games)
                    1872 -- 7.6 -- 4.7/2.9 -- 24 (50 games)
                    1873 -- 9.9 -- 8.5/1.4 -- 27 (60 games)
                    1874 -- 16.6 -- 14.7/1.9 -- 38 (70 games)
                    1875 -- 25.2 -- 20.5/4.7 -- 51 (80 games)
                    1876 -- 11.6 -- 9.7/1.9 -- 31 (60 games)
                    1877 -- 11.2 -- 10.7/.5 -- 30 (60 games)
                    1878 -- 8.8 -- 8.6/.2 -- 22 (60 games)
                    1879 -- 12.3 -- 9.9/2.4 -- 24 (84 games)
                    Total -- 121.2 -- 95.1/17.1 -- 295

                    For 1876-1879, WS itself records 54 WS for McVey (16, 14, 11, 13), which adjust to 136. However, 22 of those are pitching WS, which WARP does not accept. Less the pitching WS, McVey's raw WS are 45, compared to 43.9 derived from WARP. I did this calculation to verify the accuracy of the method, employed on a season-by-season basis. Expanded, the differences come to 114 WS, 107 WARP. I suspect the difference arises from the very low fielding runs WARP gives McVey, which make the conversion into a rough estimate.

                    Ways of looking at the total
                    295 -- WARP-derived adj. career WS -- this number should be within 5% of the total that would be arrived at by calculating all McVey's WS directly from the data.
                    302 -- WARP-derived adj. Career WS 71-75 + adj. WS 76-79
                    324 -- Pitching added to 302
                    314 -- No pitching added, but fielding WS in the 302 figure adjusted upward by 30% (my standard pre-1893 adjustment)

                    I am amused that the estimate I find most accurate -- 314 -- almost exactly matches the rougher estimate that I set out to refine -- 315.

                    Having given the numbers, I'll explain the method, for those who want to know.

                    Battting Win Shares

                    Rather than starting from the WARP1 total, I started from BRAR. WS and WARP are in much closer agreement about batting value than about fielding value.

                    WARP1 seasonal totals seem to be calculated by summing all batting, fielding, and pitching runs above replacement and multiplying that total by about .103. So BRAR/10 gives a fair approximation of BWARP. If WS and WARP are right, then this should be true Batting WS = (BWARP X 3) + Batting Replacement Level. As far as I can tell, it is. If you divide BRAR by 10 and multiply by 3 for any player season or career, you'll get a number just a bit below batting win shares. That leaves the problem of replacement level. Since replacement level isn't entirely constant, and BRAR and batting WS are not perfectly consistent, this number isn't entirely fixable, but I've found by some trial and error that 3.5 WS / 162 games gives results that are accurate within 5% in all but one case I have tried (that's Sam Thompson -- grist for the mill!). For McVey, I found that replacement level for his 76-79 seasons, as calculable by subtracting his BWAR from his BWS was 3.52, so I used this number in calculations of batting WS for his 71-75 seasons. I am very confident, therefore, that the batting win shares are accurate within 5%. (A while ago I calculated batting WS by hand for the 1875 Red Stockings, so I had a hard number to check that season against. The WS calculated off of BWARP came to 21.5; the WS calculated by hand came to 20.5 -- 5% discrepancy. Since I had the hand-calculated WS number for 1875, I used it).

                    Fielding Win Shares

                    Since win shares and WARP do not agree about fielding value, there is no way to predict consistently the ratio of FRAR and fielding win shares. Win shares gives much lower credit for fielding, so I figured that a straight ratio of conversion for McVey's fielding win shares would give a conservative estimate of what actually calculating his fielding WS would reveal. McVey's FWAR for 76-79 are 3.5 . His fielding WS for this period are 4.86. The ratio between them is 1.39. For McVey's 71-75 seasons, I divided his FRAR by 10 and multiplied that number by 1.39. This gives a much lower estimate of McVey's fielding value than WARP does, but I figured that it would be a fairly accurate representation of the numbers that the WS system would actually produce. In rating McVey myself, I (as I have indicated above) multiply his fielding WS by 1.3.

                    Pitching Win Shares

                    Win Shares gives McVey a fair amount of credit for his pitching stints, 76-79. WARP evaluates his pitching during that period as well below replacement level. These assessments are not reconcilable. Fortunately, McVey pitched hardly at all prior to 1876, so there's no need to worry about converting his pitching record in that period into WS. If you believe what WS has to say about pitching, you can give McVey additional WS. If you don't, you can leave those out. If you believe WARP, you can dock McVey's career WS by 4 or so to account for his hurting his team by taking the mound.
                    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      At some point I think we had a minor conversation about Del Pratt's defense. I was just skimming through the Bill James Historical Abstract and noticed that in discussing Pratt, James believes Pratt deserved the 1919 Gold Glove, and would have been second in five other seasons, four of which he was behind the great Eddie Collins.

                      This probably won't tip the scales for anyone, but it's some food for thought.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by DoubleX View Post
                        At some point I think we had a minor conversation about Del Pratt's defense. I was just skimming through the Bill James Historical Abstract and noticed that in discussing Pratt, James believes Pratt deserved the 1919 Gold Glove, and would have been second in five other seasons, four of which he was behind the great Eddie Collins.

                        This probably won't tip the scales for anyone, but it's some food for thought.
                        Win shares has Pratt as a B fielder. Collins was A-, but in way more innings at 2B.

                        Pratt was a very good player. Just not a hall of fame level player. He's at a similar level to Jimmy Williams and Mller Huggins. Guys who were pretty solidly above average 2Bmen for around ten seasons.
                        .


                        19th Century League Champion
                        1900s League Champion
                        1910s League Champion

                        1930s League Division Winner
                        1950s League Champion
                        1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
                        1960s League Division Winner
                        1970s League Champion
                        1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
                        1980s League Champion
                        All Time Greats League Champion

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
                          Win Shares gives McVey a fair amount of credit for his pitching stints, 76-79.
                          He was very good on the mound in '76, but got pounded in the other seasons.
                          Last edited by SavoyBG; 01-17-2009, 03:23 PM.
                          .


                          19th Century League Champion
                          1900s League Champion
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                          1930s League Division Winner
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                          1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
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                          • #58
                            Babe Adams
                            Pete alexander
                            chief bender
                            eddie collins
                            johnny evers
                            larry gardner
                            heinie groh
                            harry hooper
                            tommy leach
                            rube marquard
                            carl mays
                            bob meusel
                            ed reulbach
                            bob shawkey
                            george sisler

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                            • #59
                              Alexander
                              Collins
                              Sisler

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Phish View Post
                                Alexander
                                Collins
                                Sisler
                                You just knocked Groh back down under the number.

                                I can understand Sisler getting in, but not this overwhelmingly. He's not an all time great player like Collins and Alexander.
                                .


                                19th Century League Champion
                                1900s League Champion
                                1910s League Champion

                                1930s League Division Winner
                                1950s League Champion
                                1960 Strat-O-Matic League Regular Season Winner
                                1960s League Division Winner
                                1970s League Champion
                                1971 Strat-O-Matic League Runner Up
                                1980s League Champion
                                All Time Greats League Champion

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